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Trend reversal


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The Doors/ Take it as it comes.

 

(no edipus lines in this one. I slipped up last night, posting the end lyrics with the mother part, Sorry)

 

 

 

Time to live

Time to lie

Time to laugh

Time to die

Takes it easy, baby

Take it as it comes

Don't move too fast

If you want your love to last

Oh, you've been movin' much too fast

Time to walk

Time to run

Time to aim your arrows

At the sun

Takes it easy, baby

Take it as it comes

Don't move too fast

IF you want your love to last

Oh, you've been movin' much too fast

Go real slow

You like it more and more

Take it as it comes

Specialize in havin' fun

Takes it easy, baby

Take it as it comes

Don't move too fast

If you want your love to last

Oh, you've been movin' much too fast

Movin' much too fast

Movin' much too fast

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fractional reserve systems grow weaker the longer they are in operation...Never stronger...never.

 

The current system, the floating exchange rate debt backed by debt fractional reserve system is about as weak a system as you could ever have...

 

That reality is missed by most people...

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Now THAT was nice wasn't it second day in a row Da Bullz were pulled backwards thru a cheeze grater. Next week is the 7th week since the top and should be the bloodiest. I agree with TE that 950-60 should be the target. Do we bounce there??? Well I tell you if we break 955 its game set and match cause we will retest 900 real quick frankly I think it's 50-50 at this point. Should we bounce at 955 it won't be for long.. What is happening in the Bond Market is GreenScums and the Banks worst nightmare-John Maudlin likes to say that the stock market is a river but the Bond market is an OCEAN. That is an apt analogy our Bonds paper the world and the world no longer wants a shrinking asset unless one is prepared to pay a high risk premium. Art Cashin said earlier that money coming out of BONDS is NOT going into the stock market it's going to GOLD or fleeing to safer harbours and he pointedly noted that the markets without the mothers milk of $ have only one way to go and that is NOT UP. So fellow Bears and Gold Bugs things are looking good for us. Richard I wish you would get off that way too many puts being bought that is simply at this point not correct. The p/c ratio close last night was a pathetic .68 and the VIX and QQV are still at the lows of their historic ranges. When the VIX sails over 2 then that is the time to get wary. Trade Safe!

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Mj,

 

I don't have T/A reason why it won't happen. I just don't see the ten year note going to 6% by year end. The thirty year maybe? 5% on the ten year is doable bu, imho, 6% won't happen. The economy will not show the strength needed for the movers and shakers to move the ten year down that far.

 

In addition, and i'm going against My guy Larry and Doc here, Down the road a few years (months even), I see new lows on the ten year (yields).

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What we should see here is the anal-cysts cutting their allocations to stocks and adding positions to bonds. August has been the worst month for stocks over the last 15 years. If they have any brains at all, those asset allocators will have started already (I havn't seen anyone do it yet) or they will, come next week.

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The economy will not show the strength needed for the movers and shakers to move the ten year down that far.

 

Economic strength ain't the only route to a 6% 10-year.

 

Another route there would be, say, a sudden and dramatic loss in confidence in the relative value of "debt backed by debt fractional reserve " notes being freely exchanged in "the floating exchange rate" "system."

 

I have read recent invocations of analogies between Summer 1987 and today involving volatility in the bond market, with the implication being that Fall 1987 will approximate Fall 2003 for equities. Could be: way above my pay grade to offer an opinion.

 

But if we are to pursue the analogy, it is purposeful to recall that the run-up to October 1987 witnessed increasing international tensions regarding "appropriate" exchange rates vis-a-vis the dollar. In fact, some identify Treasury Secretary Baker's public confrontation with the head of the Bundesbank (whose name always escapes me...) the week leading into "Crash Week" as the precipitating "Trigger."

 

Anyone heard any rumors yet about hedge funds blowing up this week?

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Waaaaaay too much put buying today to sustain any significant sell off!

What happened to Double Flush - he had the P/C thing nailed. I hear so many divergent numbers on P/C, I just use my own sources (CBOE) and ignore the others. Granted there are other options exchanges, but CBOE numbers should be similar. And I check P/C on leaps, too. Today (SPX):

 

SPX CALL VOLUME: 54624 SPX CALL OPEN INTEREST: 1123392

SPX PUT VOLUME: 94760 SPX PUT OPEN INTEREST: 1488351

 

CBOE Market (Put-Call) Data

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Economic strength ain't the only route to a 6% 10-year.

 

Another route there would be, say, a sudden and dramatic loss in confidence in the relative value of "debt backed by debt fractional reserve " notes being freely exchanged in "the floating exchange rate" "system."

Mr. Hendrix - I see the later route as the most likely. This hokey balloeey crapolla about a "recovery" is intended for serious heroin users like yourself, pun intended, unless you really are The Voodoo Child. :grin:

 

I believe the strength of silver vs. gold is related to the superior raw material and pecuniary potential of the white metal. Its a better hedge, if you're a worried bull. But we will also see gold shine as confidence fades. I follow the moves in PM's as indicators of the likelihood of the confidence scenario predominating.

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I believe the strength of silver vs. gold is related to the superior raw material and pecuniary potential of the white metal. Its a better hedge, if you're a worried bull. But we will also see gold shine as confidence fades.

Silver = Hedge

Gold = Confidence

 

That is extremely interesting.

 

Tanks!

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Not only does the Put Buying give me the runs.................................

 

But knowing "Snot Nosed" Johnny Chambers get a turn at "mike night" next week................

 

Also gives me pause for concern......................

 

CSCO is a lot like AMAT & AMZN..................

 

It is THE ECONOMY.................and can fabricate enough lies to get the 24 yr. old FUN Managers to Jam-A-Mania...................

 

Have a nice WEAKend my fellow stoolies.................

 

Bought my BEARX..................I hold it and snooze....................

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