Hiding Bear Posted September 14, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 I guess this must be based on the fact that a Bush victory is guaranteed, since Dick Cheney has pretty much guaranteed that Al Qaeda will strike our homeland on a larger scale than 9/11 if we don't all vote for Bush. It seems to me the only way he could say that is if he knew for a fact that Al queda would not attack before the elections. Unless of course he's just stupid. He is many things, but stupid is not one of them. Your assessment seems quite logical, doesn't it? Colin Powell basically undercut what Cheney said yesterday and said any President would act in defense of America's interests. I still think he will be gone from the GWB after the elections. He needs to put a lot more distance from the war hawks to gain back his credibility, but this is a good start. Well we are not here to discuss 9/11, so switching back to NK, GWB overlooked those mushrooms clouds on the campaign trail today. WASHINGTON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - As he campaigns on a platform of having made America safer, President George W. Bush usually does not talk about nuclear disputes with North Korea and Iran that show no sign of resolution. Bush did not mention the two countries, once branded by him as part of an "axis of evil", in his recent Republican Convention address and he has not made them a campaign staple. Jonathan Pollack, chairman of the Strategic Research Department at the Naval War College, said even though Vice President Dick Cheney and others have admitted time is running out for curbing the North's ambitions, Bush has displayed no sense of urgency and set no deadlines for acting. "After years of wheels spinning on this issue in this administration, you don't get a sense that there is a clear executive level decision or understanding about what we should do," he told Reuters. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N13300506.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted September 14, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 It looks like Snow: WASHINGTON -- Tax cuts passed under the Bush administration have helped the U.S. economy recover from the 2001 recession, Treasury Secretary John Snow said Monday. "The tax cuts made a difference - individually and collectively," Snow said in prepared remarks to a National Restaurant Association conference in Washington. "Those tax cuts - coupled with the actions of the Federal Reserve - are a critical part of the reason why I am able to report that our national economy has found its footing," he said. "It is expanding and creating jobs." Economic observers, including Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, saw signs of a soft patch in economic growth and job creation during the second quarter. But the Treasury secretary reiterated Monday his view that recent indicators show a strengthening economy. He cited 12 straight months of job creation that have added 1.7 million new jobs since August 2003 and overall and minority homeownership at record-high levels. Snow called on the restaurant owners to ask Congress to make the tax cuts permanent, to end the estate tax, to change the alternative minimum tax - a tax aimed at the wealthy that is affecting increasing numbers of taxpayers - and to generally simplify the tax code. "...The President, as he indicated a couple of weeks ago, wants to make the (tax) code simpler and more fair," he said. Snow listed remaining challenges to robust growth, including the "economic headwind" of high oil prices, high health-care costs, and frivolous and abusive lawsuits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 Your assumtion is based on Bush winning the election. Not so in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted September 14, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 I have a question. In your opinion, What is causing Gold to stay stagnent over the last few months? Al Green's $1.3 trillion bond/dollar pool. The dollar must come unpegged for gold to reach its natural level. Since last Thursday, the 'pool members' have not been adding to their 'position'. The six week US$ buying binge is showing signs of fatigue. The fundementals for gold are falling back into place as the same time Doc's Golden Stool gives us technical hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 Well, this is one of those days when the markets are and have been going up. Bulls are all over the place and bears are in hibernation. Like Ivan was supposed to hit Florida....the bulls are just guessing at the future from here and so are we. In the face of concerns regarding high oil prices, increasing fed rates, a flatening yield curve, a flat to declining M3 and an upcoming election where there has been terrorist events in about every major country before a major election....the market looks to be having a solid rally. My only question is how long will this go on? Are we doomed to a relative trading range....it looks like today that we are about at the top of that range....but will the market fall again, into the forever boring channel? Stay tuned for tomorrows episode of "As the Stomach Turns" where we will see if The President gets hamered over Powels statements today, weather Russia does something jaw dropping over its terrorist event and weather Granville's predictions for this fall will ever come to pass or if he has revised anything.... Best wishes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 Well, this is one of those days when the markets are and have been going up. Bulls are all over the place and bears are in hibernation. Like Ivan was supposed to hit Florida....the bulls are just guessing at the future from here and so are we. In the face of concerns regarding high oil prices, increasing fed rates, a flatening yield curve, a flat to declining M3 and an upcoming election where there has been terrorist events in about every major country before a major election....the market looks to be having a solid rally. My only question is how long will this go on? Are we doomed to a relative trading range....it looks like today that we are about at the top of that range....but will the market fall again, into the forever boring channel? Stay tuned for tomorrows episode of "As the Stomach Turns" where we will see if The President gets hamered over Powels statements today, weather Russia does something jaw dropping over its terrorist event and weather Granville's predictions for this fall will ever come to pass or if he has revised anything.... Best wishes.... I will take a drop to the bottom of that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted September 14, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 In the face of concerns regarding high oil prices, increasing fed rates, a flatening yield curve, a flat to declining M3 and an upcoming election where there has been terrorist events in about every major country before a major election....the market looks to be having a solid rally. My only question is how long will this go on? The decline in the Money Supply-s will slowly accelerate barring a sudden drop in long term rates - which is looking less likely techincally and funde-mentally. September economic figures will come in weak but the Fed not seeing this will raise rates anyway another 0.25%. They will pause by the time October rolls around. Speaking of rolling, by then the market should have rolled over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 I have a question. In your opinion, What is causing Gold to stay stagnent over the last few months? Al Green's $1.3 trillion bond/dollar pool. The dollar must come unpegged for gold to reach its natural level. Since last Thursday, the 'pool members' have not been adding to their 'position'. The six week US$ buying binge is showing signs of fatigue. The fundementals for gold are falling back into place as the same time Doc's Golden Stool gives us technical hope. In every foreign currency devaluation of the Nineties -- starting with Britain and Sweden in 1992 (with Soros "breaking the bank of England"), then Thailand, Indonesia, and others in 1997, Russia in 1998, Brazil in 1999, Argentina in 2001 -- there was a fairly consistent pattern. Holding the artificial currency peg meant pain. High interest rates, in most of the cases cited. Deflation and recession, in the case of Argentina trying to link to the dollar at an unrealistic rate. Once they pulled the plug on a unsustainable exchange rate, these countries got BLESSED RELIEF. The currency sank, their exports became competitive, the stock market roared, and employment bounced back. Devaluation is like a hit on the crack pipe for a sick economy, and the rush lasts longer too -- a couple of years. Strange, then, that the U.S. currency pool doesn't involve ANY pain on its part. No high interest rates, certainly -- actually, they are artificially low. At some point, as foreigners become increasingly reluctant to fund the pool, one would expect U.S. real interest rates to go positive. But since the U.S. has no appetite for economic pain -- and has never cared about the external value of its currency -- dollar devaluation probably would follow very quickly ... for all the benefits cited above that accrued to other devaluers. Uncle Sam's only a couple of steps away from becoming an economic crackhead. What the hell ... if I were $50 trillion in the hole, I'd probably take the easy way out, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 To me, the third increase in Fed rates should be the straw (lol) that breaks the camel's back.... The third fed rate increase will undoubtably slow the economy....it always has. I know the rates are low to begin with, but the most important thing is the movement and direction of the rates. Combine the rising interest rates with rising oil prices and I'm not sure is there is an exception to the case where we see the market and economy declining six to nine months later....(please check on that as I remember reading this somewhere.. )... Speaking of Straw...I wish some mean old fat lady would just Bitch slap the fella...I mean I know his job is to be optomistic, but jeeeezzzeeee...he lays it on so darn thick and one-sided I can't stand it any more! By the way, its so interesting to read everyone's smart and wise posts here...I'm truly in awe at the all of your brains (even pee brains...LOL). Best wishes.... :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 Chip players seen vanishing Four of 10 chip firms forced out by 2014, says Gartner By Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 4:20 PM ET Sept. 13, 2004 SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Bankruptcies, buyouts, and total corporate makeovers are ahead in the next decade for semiconductor companies, said an industry anal cyst Monday. "Escalating costs have reached a tipping point," said Jim Tully, vice president with Gartner Dataquest, speaking at a semiconductor conference sponsored by his company in San Francisco. He projected a 40 percent reduction in the number of chip vendors during the next ten years. "Some will go out of business, a larger number will be acquired, and a still larger number will become [intellectual property] vendors," Tully said. http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story...0275AFB54768%7D That explains the semi rally. Not just an ovesold bounce. It's buy 'em now before there're gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 If, as it appears, the price of oil will rise this week due to disruptions in supply in the Gulf, Greenspan will have an excuse not to raise rates...if he wants one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 I haven't seen this in the U.S. media but I do not doubt its veracity as the Civilian death toll in Iraq is rising. Global TV in Canada in tonites National Newscast says tactics have changed in Iraq the U.S. Forces are using increasing air raids against the militants. Those raids they say are now taking out buildings and blocks of same. This has not been seen before and in my view shows an increasing desparation by the Forces and of course it makes more Militants doesn't it. The Assualt Rifle ban was terminated today which means any right wing wacko can now once again buy that cool street sweeper, Ouzi or air-cooled 50 caliber he has always lusted for to protect his family from the Red menace-Sick, sick and sicker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 Machinehead... Didn't the G7 at the begining of the year decide to gently decrease the value of the dollar? Japan eventually stepped away from its direct support and yet the US keeps selling debt at reasonable interest rates.... The dollar decline would help domestic manufacturers and stem the decline in jobs to oversees (the fake productivity miricle). I think that the adjustment downward had better continue, but it sure would put a damper on our lifestyle since we import nearly everything outside of cars and rubber chickens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agent.5 Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 But you still can't buy silencers. The NRA must do something about this. Must use RPG to kill bambi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 14, 2004 Report Share Posted September 14, 2004 Your Anals are loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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