rog Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 OK folks I'm seriously confused about the GDP here. I took a bunch of math in school, so I should be able to get this but I can't seem to make it work. In current dollars: Q3 03 = 11,038 Q2 03 = 10,803 Q3 02 = 10,506 So the preceding Q comparison yields a percent increase of 2.1% (or 1.7% in chained dollars) A year over year comparison yields 5.1% (or 3.3% in chained dollars) Given that we just experienced the highest increase in the price index in recent years, which is subtracted from the current dollars to yield the real GDP, we should be looking at a number significantly lower than 5%. I simply cannot make the posted numbers fit the percent increases posted in table 1. Further, if you go to table 7 titled "Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago" it states that the percent change is 3.3% agreeing with my chained dollar calculation. Where the hell is the 7.2% coming from? The number is obivously BS. Its funny how 73 economist surveyed on Bloomberg are able to guess the econ releases every day +/- 0.01% although they all claim to be using different methods. Seems to me the govt is curve fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMotleyStool Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 I came to the board to see the reaction to the GDP number. I saw Doc's post, and I'll have to read last night's Mark to Market to get what it's all about. Doc is right. TA does not claim to give you a 100% guaranteed look into the future, but an edge. If you can be right 60% of the time, you can make good money. Heck, in some systems, you make money being right a small percentage of the time. If there is a potential for a crash in September or October, that's useful information even if the crash doesn't happen. As you know, I'm no longer in BEARX. I still believe in BEARX and the bear case over the long haul, but I needed the money for other pressing needs. Good luck to all bears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 No seriously, I don't do gubmint math - your help would be appreciated. This from the GDP release: Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 9.0 percent, or $235.7 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $11,038.4 billion Ummmm. 235.7/11,038 = 2.1% 235.7/(11,038-235.7) = 2.2% What's the 9%? The previous quarters increase was 114 so they're not doing a strict increase comparison because that would be a bit over 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 screw it , we are in a fantasay world where propaganda rules the day. They make the rules, I have to decide if I want to stay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 10 year giving Al the double finger'd salute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calculus Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 Well done Minkey. People including myself will take you a lot more seriously now you're telling us before the event Two points though; 1) Keep posting on IDS before the mkt opens 2) Day ain't over yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 GDP released read all about it here: http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
growler Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 Of course the GDP numbers are bs...but the majority either don't know or don't care. We've gone from the Enron/WCOM/Global crossing scandals to the Grasso/NYSEHedge fund scandals. And, what have we learned? Nothing! The SEC didn't even investigate the Putnam mutual fund scandal. Nothing matters until it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 if mo mo is such a billy big deal, why in the world does the scumbag have to make payments on hios pos esclade. I guess one could ask what would prompt anyone to buy such a pos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 From the BEA release: "The acceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in PCE, a deceleration in imports, an upturn in exports, and accelerations in residential fixed investment and in equipment and software that were partly offset by a deceleration in federal national defense spending." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 C'mon people. Mo Mo is a spoof. One of us, just having fun, I'm sure. Lighten up on him. Read between the lines. MoMo- take your lithium! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 call me deluded but ... ? mini-crash day... hope springs eternal. I'm sicker than I thought. But the market reaction is not going according to plan. That I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiefywiefy Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 Sold ITRA at the open. I might have a good year after all. :wink2: One last non-miner long (EPMN). It needs to pop soon or I'll take the loss. Someone sold me 4800 CDE @ 3.53 in the premarket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
getsoutalive Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 No seriously, I don't do gubmint math - your help would be appreciated. This from the GDP release: Ummmm. 235.7/11,038 = 2.1% 235.7/(11,038-235.7) = 2.2% What's the 9%? The previous quarters increase was 114 so they're not doing a strict increase comparison because that would be a bit over 100%. Sphinxter, The numbers you are doing are qtrly. Multiply by 4 to get annualized numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 Soup, If Gm wants to loan you money free of charge for the next 5 year, why pay up front? I did with my Avalanche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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