Hypertiger Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 The threat is debt deflation... This GDP number is wonderful the debt needed to sustain it is unbelieveable... Rates rise and the hope dies plain and simple... This is a happy day... It is a debt backed by debt system and the only way in the known universe to support the previous debt inflation which is what we are seeing today is with greater amounts of debt inflation... You would need "average" mortgage rates of around 3.5% to 4% to even have a hope of prolonging this... After basically the greatest fiscal stimulus in the history of the US the result is a jobless, consumer debt at record levels unsustainable... BLIP Note crapvision has talked about a blip also so they can escape when the time comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockLedge Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 Valero Energy just reported blowout earnings. Note the huge increase in volume the last few days. Might go long on this one if it takes off...... Earnings were better, I'll say that for DYN... over $4.00 and it could get exciting. Most likely will retest the 5.00. As far as the refiners.... slam dunk this quarter. All of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 needless to say who is lying? gdp @7 odd % ( yeah right) or short term int rates at 1%? THe 7% number tells me we are very near the end of the game. THis is outright fraud and panic on the part of the statists, they know the end is near. I Soup? Soup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 sold more e mini against 1055.79stop a few pts above p/c will be in the 30's this am at this rate vix ? Oh that is an old thing of the past Last time we had huge econ data to the upside was during March Madness 2002. Market tanked 30% shortly thereafter....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 7% gdp and still no jobs? wtf is it going to take to get employment to grow? debasement and war are postitive over the very short term, they are fatal to the system over any other term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 Blow Out Or Blowoff? Your Anals Opening Intraday is up and ready for download. Take a subscribatory, open it and download it RIGHT NOW, along with everything else in your Anals!? 15 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $2.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Fine tune your timing! Stooltrading is the place! Join your fellow stoolies sharing charts, trading signals and ideas! Each has a different style, and one may be just right for you. Doc gives his commentary, illustratiing intraday cycles throughout the day with projections for highs, lows, and cycle time turns for the SPX and QQQ. He also gives cmap targets for individual stocks by request. There are no superstars in Stooltrading, just Doc and a group of hard working Stoolies, honestly trying to help each other and themselves, constantly checking and balancing one another's views. Our Founding Fathers knew it's good to have checks and balances. The more checks the more the balances. So take a subscribatory to Stooltrading RIGHT NOW, and increase your checks and balances! Become a Stooltrader and join the fun!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 OK folks I'm seriously confused about the GDP here. I took a bunch of math in school, so I should be able to get this but I can't seem to make it work. In current dollars: Q3 03 = 11,038 Q2 03 = 10,803 Q3 02 = 10,506 So the preceding Q comparison yields a percent increase of 2.1% (or 1.7% in chained dollars) A year over year comparison yields 5.1% (or 3.3% in chained dollars) Given that we just experienced the highest increase in the price index in recent years, which is subtracted from the current dollars to yield the real GDP, we should be looking at a number significantly lower than 5%. I simply cannot make the posted numbers fit the percent increases posted in table 1. Further, if you go to table 7 titled "Real Gross Domestic Product: Percent Change From Quarter One Year Ago" it states that the percent change is 3.3% agreeing with my chained dollar calculation. Where the hell is the 7.2% coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
growler Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 Amazing how that 7.2% GDP number didn't show up in the Q3 corporate revenue numbers. Got to love that magic wand of hedonic pricing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 DJX stumbling in late, now potentially in the breakout zone in the cash index Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonto Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 thanks for info machine....personally just daytrading now trying to follow the volume trails. Good luck!! Wndy, NSCN looks like it is going to uncharted territory. 30 maybe? Im a novice of stocks that arent down 400% and have a hard time judging mania behavior here!!.......selling my miners was a horrible move (disclosure of bad trades) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 The threat is debt deflation... This GDP number is wonderful the debt needed to sustain it is unbelieveable... Rates rise and the hope dies plain and simple... This is a happy day... It is a debt backed by debt system and the only way in the known universe to support the previous debt inflation which is what we are seeing today is with greater amounts of debt inflation... You would need "average" mortgage rates of around 3.5% to 4% to even have a hope of prolonging this... After basically the greatest fiscal stimulus in the history of the US the result is a jobless, consumer debt at record levels unsustainable... BLIP Note crapvision has talked about a blip also so they can escape when the time comes... Interesting how money supply measures have started a steady downward trend that is not comparable to anything in the last 50 years or so. Declining supply of credit means that the Fed or whoever will have to work twice as hard to get interest rates low enough to stimulate even more borrowing (unless it is perceived that inflation is so strong that the price of credit - interest rates - no longer matters). If those predictions of a rising GDP in the 4th quarter are true, then long term interest rates have a way to go higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 Like I said yesterday, FNM earnings oops we lied FRE earnings oops we lied US GDP People are going to figure out real quick who's lying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 Wow...glad I missed last nite..... Good Morning to all.... I'm buying gold...it's on sale...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 So far $9B in 14 day repos replacing $18B in expiring repo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 30, 2003 Report Share Posted October 30, 2003 The MoGauge peaked at the end of May. Typically, it takes 6-10 weeks to fund these mortgages. That means the bulk of the mortgage boom proceeds hit the economy in the middle of the third quarter. The effects of the mortgage collapse will be seen this quater, as it is already showing up in the money supply. The market is reacting to ancient history here, as is its wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.