PileDriver Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 This market is going to get spanked. Way too many bulls and too few bears out there. Technicals are horrible. SPX 980?! No frick'n way. Neeley is smoking entirely to much "X wave" dope. Lucky if it get to 925 from here. Funny how when the technicals were good and steadily improving as we were rising off the Oct lows everyone was immediately chomping at the bit to go short. Currently the technicals stink and are deteriorating on a daily basis, a confirmed reversal top was put in Dec 2, and now no sooner than two weeks later everyone is looking for a bottom to dong. Incredible. Next week and perhaps following week finishes flat. After that its a horror show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 Next week and perhaps following week finishes flat. After that its a horror show. I'm with you Piles. I think Q103 for the economy, and specifically mid-Jan to mid-Feb for the markets, will be real ugly. The world is going to learn that all the stops were pulled to float the US economy through the crashmas season. All those sluggish retail numbers...during the greatest refi wave of all time, on top of all the deep discounting? Please. It wil be crickets for months after all the junk no one wants is returned to Tarzhay, Ball-mart, Blowe's, Reds-Blondes-and-Behinds and all the rest. That said, I can already hear Maria squealing on procto the week of Jan 6 about all the new pension money, pension reallocations, '03 recovery, the whole nine. I remember distinctly last year's early January blowoff (1/7/02) because I was way short and they pulled off a Naz +65 day on me. It hurt. So this time I 'm thinking I'll cruise straight through with my BEARX, but no individual shorts, puts, or callsells until about mid-Jan.....with an eye toward Doc's cycles of course. Speaking of BEARX, the latest update to the prospectus by David Tice himself is must reading. Like a can of spinach for Popeye Bears. Check it out over on www.prudentbear.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 MJ, that's why I'm too playing BEARX for now. Sure over the next two or three weeks there will probably be sporadic (spastic is more like it) big pop days and Maria will be having her orgasms but nothing sustainable past a day or two. Trend is still down, pops are noise. Once the smoke clears and the trend solidifies it'll make more sense to become more aggressive on the short side. We'll see how and when it develops (10-13 week cycle, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 1990 by looking at these charts shows that there was "slack" People had more savings and less debt Back to the Future The Kiss of Death above means that people are maxed out and have no savings... pssssst Consumer Debt inflation drives the economy it's over just not very many people can come to terms with this fact... Unless the FED puts money into peoples accounts it's game over, but the market still has some life in it... But down is the long term direction 25% to 50% of your "WEALTH" in long term savings ("Physical" Gold and Silver) and the rest in the Piledriver method is sensible to me... Avoid debt backed assets, like houses they are a scam... Doc knows the score... I paid for the Anals, which are the cheapest "therapy" money can buy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
esahlin Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 I took a look at Jim Sinclairs chart of the gold futures below. and saw the "island" top put in via the exuberant blow-off run earlier in the week. Could this be an important top in the POG? I am getting a little cautious now on the gold stocks....there has been some wild volatility and high volume on the miner stock charts this week...not really a signal of a quiet low volume consolidation. Plus even Joe sixpack has seems to have been alerted to gold shares. Doesn't mean it still cant go up....I'm just keeping my eyes open and will buy strength on another breakout. http://www.financialsense.com/metals/sincl.../gold_daily.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxxPain Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 John Murphy is a rational human so I'm interested what he says. The only thing is I'm not so sure the current market action, particularly gold, has much to do with war. I reckon its more of a reaction to the economy and a growing distrust of paper. I don't think Merciless's reasons for buying Krugerrands was because of the impending war but more because of a potential run on banks. Enlighten us Merciless.. Oil is a bit of a puzzle too. Oil futures may have soared but charts of individual oil companies listed here have been sideways to down for 18 mths or so. So maybe the oil futures traders have their own little casino, dunno... As I have said before if the US goes into the depression scenario then where will the demand for oil come from if 3 out of 4 factories are closed and the you-beaut motors are repossessed? Not to mention more than a few strict budgets on heating bills.. ???? "distrust of paper" That's exactly why gold is going up. That's why it will continue to go up. Paper is fine with me if I see it as fundamentally sound, but it isn't. All this talk of deflation is just theoretical. The cost of living is soaring and having money in the bank is a guaranteed loss. My parents told me their health insurance costs are going up $60 dollars/ month. That is nearly 10% of their social security income. Their income from banks CDs is down 50%. Sooner or later everyone notices paper is shit. If you have a longer term view the dollar doesn't have a bottom and thus commodities do not have a top. Oil is the mother of all commodities. While I'm bullish on gold I favor diverisification in other areas. I've even been thinking of buying some oil stocks. I think the war is going to BURN alot of oil. Tanks, ships, jets all burn alot of oil. Saddam will likely torch more oil wells. I missed the recent rally in oil and natural gas futures cause I'm an incompetent fool. A major depression is a concern because demand could drop for energy, but that's what charts are for. Until I see energy prices dropping I'm a bull. Look at the charts for lumber and palladium. Looks like somebody sees a slump in housing and autos. Platinum looks like it just broke its recent uptrend. About 35% of platinum demand is catalytic converters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 Hmmm thank you for those comments on oil MaxxPain, ...could be a bit of a disconnect between futures & oil stock prices, in fact I think I recall that happening before. Maybe the long term sideways movement is a massive consolidation at the high. Anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 For the ones that think gold is in a bull market now, what do you think about this chart? Thanks for the comments. I was thinking about buying some gold on a good pullback, but I'm having second thoughts now. Slinger, I think a good understanding of the fundamentals is necessary in order to have a better chance to correctly interpret a chart. To me that gold chart looks like a bull flag. It projects to $750, the same amount mentioned in the Blanchard & Co. law suit. Scarey huh( Twighlight Zone theme plays in background). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 Hypertiger: Nice charts. I agree anyone who thinks this is going to be a replay of 1991 - is going to be in for a rude shock. The war on Iraq is the last thing we need. War is about as positive for markets as unfunded pension liabilities. Which is not to say we won't hear Maria screaching about it, once the shopping season is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 Of course gold is in a bull market. The long term secular downtrend is broken. The price has been rising for two years, and it has broken a past intermediate high after making a higher low. To say otherwise is to ignore the facts. People love to do that. Ignore the facts. Just make up whatever they want and repeat it over and over. We live in a world of Ibbotson p-r. A lie, repeated often enough, does not become the truth just because a lot of people believe it to be true after hearing it a million times. Doc covers gold and HUI daily in your AM Anals with cycle charts and price targets. The Weak End Golden Stool will be posted at 10:30 AM NY time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 Doc in da house, yallz! Mackitty whack, don't talk back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted December 22, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 Hear all this consternation and worry about gold? Is everyone nervous? Whose got the guts to stay in? Nobody. Remember it. Get used to it. This is what a real bull market feels like. The same thing will happen with the broad market some day, after we have made a REAL bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 The gold contract weekly chart shows a decisive break of the 1987 trendline with a long, high volume candle. No, it doesn't. In fact, the price stopped and reversed precisely at that trendline. Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 Anyone here think that natural gas could go alot higher over the next six months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 22, 2002 Report Share Posted December 22, 2002 That's true. The channel it broke on my chart was a linear regression channel. This indicates either a change in the direction of the trend or a final blowoff. The position of cycle oscillators on the weekly charts in the Anals shows clearly that it is a breakout, and not a blowoff. The price will consolidate for a while and then move higher. On the other hand, I'd disagree with those who are calling for $1000 an ounce. It may get that high, but it will take a hell of a long time, and there's absolutely no way of knowing now when, or even whether it will or not. I mean isn't it enough just to know that it's a bull market, that it's a long way from over, and let the rest take care of itself. What I find interesting about the long term charts is that they had a huge rally 30 months after the 1980 high, but moved into a lower low five years after the peak. Didn't the Nikkei have a similar path? Including the US experience 1929-32, the pattern of massive rallies 30-36 months after a market top may be a warning sign. Does the current stock market rally qualify? Or will it be in March 2003? See any similarities or connections we should worry about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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