Hiding Bear Posted October 20, 2004 Author Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 The higher costs to companies should put the squeeze on profits.? The problem is that the US economic growth is slowing and that pricing power will again be weak.? All additional cost cutting will occur at the expense of the economy.? We are in a down cycle as far as I can see..... I think what Wall Street anal-ysts are missing about energy is, beyond the direct costs we see - like the rising price of gasoline, heating oil, NG, etc., - is the energy component built in to all products. This includes the many imports from overseas -which are mostly produced in an energy intensive process. This can be seen for example in China's electricity shortages. It does not take a big increase in energy costs to have a big effect on company profits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Credit bubble taking some body blows Ambac Financial Q3 EPS of $1.51 vs. $1.56 exp revs of $274m vs 294.1 CFC Q3 EPS of $0.94 vs $1.01 exp revs of $2.245b vs $2.23b CFC guides '04 EPS to $3.75-4.00 vs $4.15 exp JPM Q3 EPS of $0.60 vs $0.74 exp revs of $12.51b vs $13.27 exp C loses 3 executives (whats the odds?) Chairman of Citi International CEO of Asset Mgmt, CEO of Citi Private Bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 I believe that I once heard that 14% of all food cost is oil! "I know how difficult it must be to put oil on your family!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 The Dow general, UTX beats by .02..gonna watch to see if they sell it anyway.. right at the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Credit bubble taking some body blows C loses 3 executives (whats the odds?) Chairman of Citi International CEO of Asset Mgmt, CEO of Citi Private Bank One of those guys, Deryck Maughan, was originally installed at Salomon Brothers by Warren Buffett -- Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc.'s Deryck Maughan, who led Salomon Brothers after the securities firm was accused in 1991 of rigging U.S. Treasury bond auctions, yesterday lost his job as vice chairman because of a banking scandal in Japan. Maughan, a British coal miner's son, worked for the U.K. Treasury for a decade until 1979 when he joined Goldman, Sachs & Co. He left Goldman in 1983 to take a job at Salomon. He was elevated to run Salomon when billionaire Warren Buffett stepped in as the firm's acting chairman in the wake of the Treasury market scandal. Maughan was chief executive of Salomon when the firm was acquired by Sanford Weill's Travelers Group Inc. in 1997. A year later, Travelers bought Citicorp for almost $70 billion, renaming the combination Citigroup. Weill appointed Maughan vice chairman. Maughan, known as Sir Deryck after being knighted in 2002, received salary and bonuses of more than $30 million during the past decade. How the mighty have fallen Sir Deryck ... meet my friend, 'Sir Alan' ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 I think what Wall Street anal-ysts are missing about energy is, beyond the direct costs we see - like the rising price of gasoline, heating oil, NG, etc., - is the energy component built in to all products. This includes the many imports from overseas -which are mostly produced in an energy intensive process. This can be seen for example in China's electricity shortages. It does not take a big increase in energy costs to have a big effect on company profits. Fact is Wall Street started out this year with three virtual certainties; lower oil prices, higher interest rates, and an election year stock market rally. Wrong across the board they were, at least so far. A pitiful waste of big salaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Bearbones, its all about who you go out to lunch with and which club your invited to join.....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Bearbones, its all about who you go out to lunch with and which club your invited to join.....LOL I don't mind all that. What I do mind is the lack of systemic accountability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Today-is a very Baaaaad Day for the Bullz-it is going to get messyand if panic sets in we may well have a crash! Window opens at the Bell for 50 minutes...Helmets on, Buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Ed Bugos spells it out for the deflationists (and 'no inflationsts') -- Note the performance of the entire commodity complex in the table to the right ranked according to three year returns. It should be clear from that alone that the oil price move is not an isolated incident even if it has the spotlight today. The common thread is not China, fundamentally. It is the US dollar and monetary policy regardless that it is denied, or perhaps especially is a better word. It's the dollah, stupid ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Bearbones....well I've met too many big picture guys who are good with a handshake and story and haven't done and down and dirty work for years...... When pressed they seem to have forgotten fundimentals and basic analysis. I guess I have a chip on my shoulder....LOL And yes, minimal accountability.......nice guys though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tradermark Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Like it or not, the popular vote in the presidential election is meaningless as long as we have the electoral college, which should be outlawed. This is a democracy, you win the popular vote, you should be the president. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Note- that EVERY World Market of consequence is DOWN and those still open are getting their clock cleaned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearbones Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 T-bond at 4.8%. In the current trading range the long bond has traded to 4.6% in each wave lower in yield. The only time it went below that level was when Greenspan went to code red on deflation back in June of 2003. I have treated that episode as an outlier. If it can't better a 4.6% with some authority, the range remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted October 20, 2004 Report Share Posted October 20, 2004 Poo-in-tin took the oil without a fight. He stole it fair and square. If Nader were erected in this country he would likely take the resources back from the phoney-baloney corporations too. Good luck today taking yours back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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