wndysrf Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 Another hit on the MoGauge: Refinancing Demand Ebbs but Still Strong By Aleksandrs Rozens NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of Americans applying for a loan to buy a home and those looking to refinance their homes dropped last week, according to an industry survey, but anal cysts expect demand for refinancings to remain robust Improved consumer confidence as the U.S. war in Iraq (news - web sites) ends may prop up demand for loans to buy homes which has waned in recent months. According to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America published on Wednesday, mortgage applications fell for the sixth consecutive week. "Unless we hit new interest rate lows it would be unlikely there would be any surge (in refinancings)," said Charles Lieberman, chief economist at Advisors Financial Center of Suffern, N.Y. "If it (the 30-year mortgage rate) goes down 25 basis points below previous lows it will be more than sufficient to stimulate a new round of refinancings." In the latest week, 30-year mortgage rates were 5.51 percent, down from the April 18 week's 5.67 percent. The survey's measure of demand for applications to refinance mortgages fell 0.2 percent to 5,092.0 in the April 25 week. Refinancings accounted for 68.4 percent of the week's business. While mortgage rates are above their recent lows, low borrowing costs continued to attract home owners who want to refinance their home loans, in particular borrowers who held off from refinancing in hopes of an even lower rate. "Mortgage rates are still very low historically. The recent small upticks don't matter that much," said Sung Won Sohn, economist at Wells Fargo of Minneapolis. "We are seeing some demand from fence-sitters." Market watchers said improvement in consumer confidence evident in recent reports as the war in Iraq ends could support demand for housing and fan demand for loans to buy homes. On Tuesday, the Conference Board (news - web sites) said its consumer sentiment index rose to 81.0 in April from a revised 61.4 in March, the biggest one-month gain since March 1991 when the first Gulf War (news - web sites) ended. "The confidence will show up in the economy broadly. I think the one problem the economy had, perhaps even the biggest problem with threat of war looming, was that people became more cautious," said Lieberman, who believes relief in the wake of the war and better confidence may marginally help improve demand for new and existing homes. "I think we're going to see an improvement in most macroeconomic statistics across the board" with the war now over, said Lieberman. Last week, demand for loans to buy homes as measured by the Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index, fell to 356.0 from 359.9, while the trade group's overall mortgage market index dropped 0.5 percent to 1,050.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 I am in the chat room if anyone wants to drop in and say hi anc check it out. Have just a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bullseatshitndie Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 weekly investor intelligence #'s bulls 48.3 bears 29.2 these #'s much better from a bear perspective from last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 The guy from CFC was on Crapvision's earlier show - said something to the effect of expecting a soft landing in the mortgage business at some point in the future. When asked how he would deal with it, he said "layoffs". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Injured Grizzly Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 This must be the top. Crapvision is talking about and showing the momentum moose this morning. Maybe that moose will turn into bear food today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 weekly investor intelligence #'s bulls 48.3 bears 29.2 these #'s much better from a bear perspective from last week Only thing surprising is that there are still so many bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lb Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 Over a 200 point boner run on the Nikkei: No wonder. More propping, jamming, and even more liquidity. Unfortunately, according to Roger Arnold, the money will simply go down another black hole of debt deflation, doing nothing for the economy. "BOJ Ups Account Balance Target To Y22tln-Y27tln" TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The Bank of Japan's policy board, in a surprise move, voted unanimously Wednesday to ease monetary policy by increasing its account balance target by Y5 trillion to a range of Y22 trillion to Y27 trillion. The BOJ said that given uncertainty over "the economic and financial situation...it is appropriate to raise the account balance target to maintain financial market stability, thereby strengthening support for economic recovery." "Govt Mulls Use Of Postal Savings To Boost Stocks: METI Minister" PARIS (Nikkei)--Takeo Hiranuma, minister of economy, trade and industry, said Tuesday that the government is taking the latest bout of stock slides seriously and will study aggressive measures to prop up the market. Fiat funnies but at least they are out front with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coboy Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 Niederhoffer's prediction for today : "Bearish, particularly in the last hour " http://www.dailyspeculations.com/prediction.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 Update on Indicator Oscillator Bullish Percents. 1.00 (Note: Bullish Percents have more room to go on the upside, but their RSI's are so wildly extreme that I'm giving this a maximum overbought score of 1.00. If the RSI's come down without a roll over, I'll raise this to a 2.50-3.00 level) Daily P/C 6.50 21Day P/C 2.50 5Trin 3.50 20Trin 1.00 TICK 3.00 Nas over 50 1.00 Volatility 1.00 Bull/Bears 2.50 Total Score of 2.44, which is low score for this cycle, and it the area of past tops. Two other non-scoring indicators, the NYSE Summation Index and the Bank Index/USD Index ratio are also in the areas of past tops. CAVEAT Without a major spike in P/C ratio or 5Day Trin reading and without rollovers in Bullish Percents, Nas over 50MA, Summation Index, etc, shorting here is basically picking a top. If the indexes do not push through recent highs, we have divergences, as the oscillator is making a new low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rog Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 MO Gauge Purchase Index decreased to 356.0 from 359.9 the previous week. (1%) Refinance Index decreased to 5092.0 from 5103.9 one week earlier. (0.25%) Wynd, Did you see my post anout Primerica laying off 10% in mortgage orgination. CFC CEO admitted the same on cc yesterday. They have been hiring low wage temporary workers to originate and process loans with the intent of laying off once the blow off peaked. So they know this is a temporary windfall but they pretend that the earnings will continue to rise. CFC thinks that purchase apps, which have been lagging for about a year, will pick up the slack once refi dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 Gold is speaking. Will the NY market boyz put duct-tape over it's mouth before the SM open? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 Anybody got the nerve to jump on QueerLogic for a quick long play this am?? ................................... Check out that worm Peter Boockvar, the shill from that Miller Tabak, the same bucket shop Tony Crescenzi works for. The typical pump house, debating with David Tice.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 long NIHD.......look at that chart! reports earnings tomorrow! short term play...check out the chart BB, this has got to have a holy grail set up since it reemerged from bankruptcy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe sixpack bundy Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 ....great guy from miller tabak hirsch on crapvision vs. david tice from the prudent bear fund...... ....neird from miller: it is important to realize that we might in a secular bear-market - that means we might face a "trading-range"....... ...wonder if you still can call it trading range with the s&p going south of 500..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted April 30, 2003 Report Share Posted April 30, 2003 Steady boys -- Steady. Both the greenman and the bushman on stage today. EOM. We may get the obligatory "applause sign" pump and add a little for EOM paint job. After that, it's open space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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