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The Cannonball Run


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From our Bear Chat friends:

 

THE race was over before most Americans even knew it had begun. About 148 participants, driving everything from a custom-built 655hp car to a VW camper van, tore up 3,000 miles of highway between San Francisco and Miami, collecting 500 speeding tickets and countless police mugshots along the way.

 

The Gumball 3000 is inspired by the 1981 film The Cannonball Run, the race ? officially called a rally, for legal reasons ? was organised by Maximillion Cooper, a raffish 30-year-old Briton, to entertain his wealthy friends.

 

?The entrants are not timed, there are no final standings, no podiums and no points,? Mr Cooper insisted. ?Sometimes Gumballers like to say they were first, but this normally means they were first to one venue, often achieved by getting up early.? After six days of champagne hangovers and high-speed cruising ? one driver was allegedly clocked by the Texas police doing 210mph . . .

 

. . . 35a.jpg

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Good morning and Good Stool to all!

 

Great technical discussion on cycles for the mathematically minded going on over on Talking Stool. (Anals subscribers only)

 

And here's what's in the current issue of your Anals:

 

Push Comes To Shove 4/29/03

 

How much more of this do we have to take? If you believe cycle and sentiment indicators, not much more. Markets always top out when all but the last diehard lunatics (ahem) agree that it's going higher. We are at that point. It's so bad I can't even turn on the TV anymore because I'm afraid I might accidentally hear someone talking about the damn stock market. If this isn't a bubble atmosphere, what is.

Doc reviews the data, and chronicles the short, intermediate, and long term market cycles, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight.

 

Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!

 

Join Doc today in Stooltrading and check out Stooltrading Chat. You need to register on the Stooltrading board to use tha chat. You now have permanent links to both in the left column menu.

 

Many tanks!

 

Doc

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Morning, Glad.

 

We have one like that in Chicago following breakup of the Bear's spring training in Wisconsin. Race is by Bear players from camp to the north suburbs. Tickets are no problem for these guys. But bad publicity is, so the race has died off in recent years.

 

FWIW (EDT):

 

7:00 am: MBA Refinancing Index for week of 4/26, prior -5.0%

10:00 am: Chicago PMI for April, prior 48.4, consensus 48.5

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Morning, Glad.

 

We have one like that in Chicago following breakup of the Bear's spring training in Wisconsin. Race is by Bear players from camp to the north suburbs. Tickets are no problem for these guys. But bad publicity is, so the race has died off in recent years.

 

FWIW (EDT):

 

7:00 am: MBA Refinancing Index for week of 4/26, prior -5.0%

10:00 am: Chicago PMI for April, prior 48.4, consensus 48.5

ChiBear,

 

Uncle Al's liquid squeeze machine is not good for us Bears......................

 

Kordell Stewart and Rex Grossman................not good for da bearz................

 

Where's Ditka when we need him?

 

-The Pittsburgh BirdMan

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Some interesting things happening on the indicator oscillator front. As of Tuesday's close, the reading is 2.83. Last three major tops have seen readings of 2.50, 2.14 and 2.57. Last week saw a reading of 2.61 at Wednesday close, but the oscillator is now making another drive down, as I suspected it would. It is time to look for a divergence between the oscillator and the markets. Lower readings on the oscillator combined with lower highs in the market would be berry berry bearish.

 

This reading will be affected by today's Bull/Bear survey, so I will update this AM.

 

Volatility - We all know how the weekly RSI's on the volatility are plumbing multi-year (like 10 years!) lows. Amazing. A crash in volatility.

 

Bullish Percents - The following are experiencing 3-year highs in the daily RSI reading. While the actual levels aren't yet at areas that have marked tops, the oscillators are.

 

NYSE - Daily RSI of 92.6

NDX - 92

OEX - 82.7

SPX - 88.3

Financials - 86.8

Health - 84.3

 

 

20Day TRIN. At levels that have marked tops at 1.03

5Day TRIN. Not extreme at 1.09

 

21 Day P/C at .78

Daily P/C at .89

 

Nasdaq stocks over 50MA at 1110. Highest RSI since Dec. '01

 

Bull/Bear reading. New reading in the AM. Hope it is wildly bullish.

 

Well, we are obviously at a breaking point here. Indexes and indicators all are screaming wild days ahead. I would feel a whole lot more comfortable going short below SP 920 if I see one of the following:

 

1. A very sharp move up, possibly a huge gap, causing rampant call buying and resulting in an extreme low TRIN and a low daily P/C. Combined with a big increase in bulls. Everything else is extreme enough that wild buying will cause a top.

 

2. Without wild buying, we need Bullish Percents, Nasdaq over 50MA and Summation Index to ROLL OVER. And we need more bulls in the Chartcraft survey.

 

If 920 SP doesn't hold, I won't look to short until above 965, unless we get my #1 scenario to happen.

 

A couple of indicators I look at every morning and will add when the market begins to move down.

 

NYSE Summation - Daily RSI of 96.2 and current reading of 784 are the highest since January '01

 

Banks/Dollar - (From Yanevano on the Mark to Market board - great indicator!) At extreme level. Can go higher, but in area of top.

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$bkx:$usd,uu[w,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

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Yet another fantastic gap up and another new high for COCO.

 

Unreal.....

 

More BBY car stereo salesmen financing their after hours business degrees on credit, thanks to SLM......

 

Yet another sector of the credit bubble.

 

Another batch of loans which will never be repaid.

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Over a 200 point boner run on the Nikkei:

 

No wonder.

 

More propping, jamming, and even more liquidity.

 

Unfortunately, according to Roger Arnold, the money will simply go down another black hole of debt deflation, doing nothing for the economy.

 

 

"BOJ Ups Account Balance Target To Y22tln-Y27tln"

 

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The Bank of Japan's policy board, in a surprise move, voted unanimously Wednesday to ease monetary policy by increasing its account balance target by Y5 trillion to a range of Y22 trillion to Y27 trillion. The BOJ said that given uncertainty over "the economic and financial situation...it is appropriate to raise the account balance target to maintain financial market stability, thereby strengthening support for economic recovery."

 

 

"Govt Mulls Use Of Postal Savings To Boost Stocks: METI Minister"

 

PARIS (Nikkei)--Takeo Hiranuma, minister of economy, trade and industry, said Tuesday that the government is taking the latest bout of stock slides seriously and will study aggressive measures to prop up the market.

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Guest bullseatshitndie
Morning, Glad.

 

We have one like that in Chicago following breakup of the Bear's spring training in Wisconsin. Race is by Bear players from camp to the north suburbs. Tickets are no problem for these guys. But bad publicity is, so the race has died off in recent years.

 

FWIW (EDT):

 

7:00 am: MBA Refinancing Index for week of 4/26, prior -5.0%

10:00 am: Chicago PMI for April, prior 48.4, consensus 48.5

GO PACKERS!! :)

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