DrStool Posted September 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 Yeah that's what the NHC has been saying all day. Extreme uncertainty after 72 hours because of weak to non-existent steering currents. They also are saying that it will slow in its forward speed. Their forecast calls for a slight weakening to a category 4 on making landfall in Florida, with winds of 135 mph, and then down to 100 mph as it goes north. The most interesting part of the NHC site (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) is the discussion link, where they talk about the various models and the vagaries in the forecast. All of the news and weather networks get their forecasts from NHC. Advisories are posted on the NHC website just before 8:00, 11:00, 2:00 and 5:00 around the clock. The 5:00 advisory should be up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 5 PM advisory has moved the storm further west into the Gulf. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/...IF/092038W5.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 9, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 Here is the latest discussion http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATC...ml/092030.shtml? The other good news is that the hurican force windfield has decreased in size to 35 mile radius. South Florida may dodge the bullet on this, but the Panhandle could take a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 9, 2004 Report Share Posted September 9, 2004 The framed document is a just outside posting perimeters but here it is anyway. The site is the Naval Research Lab in Motnterey Cal. and is associated with shipping world wide...all storms everywhere and is the only site that appears to use the Jet Stream Steering Currents with some sucess. The site is updated twice daily. My home is in North Central Florida, east of Gainesville and North of Melrose.....lakeside. You can bet your bippy I will have the wife, my children and pets on the road to the East Tennessee hills, high and dry...should Ivans track come East along the West Coast of Florida. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Forecast by: National Hurricane Center Graphic by: Naval Atlantic Meteorology and Oceanography Center http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn/thum...04.04090906.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 The most interesting part of the NHC site (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) is the discussion link, where they talk about the various models and the vagaries in the forecast. Doc, I also like the probabilities section - my mathematical (and gambling) nature like the numbers :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Nature the force of all forces in one space Stronger than any goverment Cause of events beyond mans control :shocked What rath http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html Owning real estate will become a burden What did you expect when 69% own in the USA Did I say own? I meant up to their eyeballs in DEBT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 10, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Heh, heh. The Google context sensitive ads on this page are running ads for Key West vacations, jobs and rental housing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Thanks for the heads up, Doc. I'll be watching it like a hawk. I liked my last approach to Frances...go to the airport - park in the concrete bunker with all your valuables in your car...and jump on a flight to "somewhere other than here." I just came back to throw the rotten food out of the freezer and restock for the next one. If this thing even hints at coming on the east side of Key West - I'm gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Seems to me that the track the storm can take can vary considerably based upon historical data. But the likely track is toward the west coast of Florida. Winds that strong will be unbelievably deadly... My hopes and prayers go out to everyone..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On The Beach Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 The west coast of Florida is Bush country. I wonder how this will affect the election. There are plenty (probably a majority) of us in tiny Pass-a-Grille Beach ('Bush Country') willing to sacrifice our considerable tax advantage for foreign and fiscal policies that will actually benefit out children. Kerry will probably lose FL nevertheless -- should've picked Wes Clakrk as VP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
On The Beach Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Seems to me that the track the storm can take can vary considerably based upon historical data. But the likely track is toward the west coast of Florida. Winds that strong will be unbelievably deadly... My hopes and prayers go out to everyone..... Thanks. Our home is (on avg.) 150 ft. from the GOM and potentially within the NE quadrant of the eyewall of Ivan. If it remains on course and remins a CAT 4 or higher it will likely be destroyed. We are on stilts and have rolling shutters which, theoretically can sustaing 120mph sustained winds and a 14ft surge. Beyond that..game over. We are gassed up. Sandbagged. Dogs/Cats/Safes/Plasma and Kids are ready to travel. Probably after we watch the Dolphin's game moved up to Saturday @ 1PM. BTW, shorted the QQQ close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jstrack Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 We have a manufactured house in Brooksville..about an hour north of Tampa....although I'm up in the Chicago area. My place, although several miles from shore would not stand a chance in 120 mph winds let alone the punch that Ivan has..... I think we can wait a day or two before we start to get upset with worry... Best wishes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 10, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/...IF/100853W5.gif The 5 AM update on the forecast track has it centered going in south of Tampa Bay. The entire SW coast of FL would be in the NE quadrant as it passes. They forecast some weakening, but still 135 mph winds. Huricane windfield radius now 50 miles. They are still uncertain of the track after the storm crosses Cuba. It could shift either east or west, and the entire state still remains within the cone of probability. My suggestion would be to leave now. By Saturday the roads will be jammed. You want to have enough gas to get yourself out of Florida. I left 7:00 AM last Thursday, and ran into jams on I-75 north of Wildwood due to people fleeing the east coast. Gas was in short supply along the east coast. With the storm coming up the west coast this time, it would be best to get to the east and take local roads if the interstates are already jammed. Have a good statewide roadmap with you. Do not wait until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted September 10, 2004 Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Bearman grewup in pompano bch fla ,got there in 1958 have heard all the horror stories of past yrs. storm tracking is a great asset even though it can be off miles problem with fla is too many yankees the 1935 cane sent flagler a message oh was watching one of my all time favorite movies when fran hit KEY LARGO fwiw when pops was praying for that wave and telling Rocco about the bodies hungup in the mangroves ,the was historical fact pops left out about death by sandblasting :cry: also true Galveston cane of 1900 ,we wont go there :shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 10, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 10, 2004 Accuweather feel that the storm will make landfall in southwest Florida, then turn north and northwest. This track is similar to Charley, although it would have the storm first going north along the west coast, then turn inland across north central Florida. If it follows this path, southeast FL, where I live would be spared the brunt of the storm, but with the area already waterlogged, flooding is going to become an even more serious issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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