B4 The Bell Weak-end Den July 22-24

[brian4]

3M I'm sure you'll be watching!

[stained jeans]

Stain- It doesn't look or feel to me like we are trying to build a bottom.  By my reckoning a move to 1102 would be a start and 1115 would confirm a bottom being in.  I'm looking for a death drop to 1050 something that drives the fear indicies straight up as well as the p/c ratio and then a blast off bounce. If we keep bleeding down  as we are without any sign of Fear then we are going much, much lower than 1050.  It's not just the Bulls that don't believe this drop few Bears do as well.

Brian.

 

You could be right. Note that I am still 50% short just in case. :wink2:

 

The scenario I laid out in those two charts forecasts a "death drop" of 100 points from 1116ish to 1016ish once the wave 3-of-3 kicks in. It would likely begin a week from now at the 7/30 Bradley turn and fall straight down for eight days into the 8/11 Bradley turn.

 

Or not.

[Guest]

Col.:

 

I see your point. If it were me running the show (don't you just wish) though, I'd never give the opponents the opportunity to badmouth my policies when they have a national forum -- I'd keep things stable, ease them down toward the end of the convention (like you say, boo to the bad guys), and THEN as you say do the rocket blast for the Pub convention. That's why I'm puzzled that they wouldn't move heaven and earth to avoid having people stew in their own juices about their accounts over the weekend. Hold things together with baling wire for one more week, then blame market softness on the possibility that the Dems might win.

 

But, who knows. Fortunately for the world, I'm not running things.

 

Another thought: if you worry about your accounts now, and the market starts improving toward the end of the week, perhaps you won't be SO worried when you see your July statements. After all, the market always outperforms bonds, right?

Of course we don't know what the strategy is. Market declines can always be blamed on those darn evil-doing terrorists if nothing else. The fear mongering noise level is already at a fever pitch. Hey, maybe they just let it drift down in Aug and then blast it up for the expected election erection. Several different ways this could play out in the shorter term, but the crap is going to hit the fan sooner or later.

[depends]

Blame the citizenship for the failures of the Fed.  It's so criminal.

Right Plunger.

 

Hey - If you work for the federal govt in any capacity just remember this - your job is phoney baloney - protect it - get in the daisy chain and push paper! Wasn't always like that but it is now IMHO.

[alceringa]

Ummmmmmmmmmm,

 

Moose steaks

Several years ago on a business trip to Burlington, Vermont, I read an article in the local paper about a man who was arrested for not eating a moose. It seems that local hunting laws for moose are very strick, but allow for citizens to kill a moose, without a permit and out of season, if the moose becomes a pest. Moose can become infected with chronic wasting disease, which is similar to mad cow disease. When that happens, the moose can develop odd behaviors, loose all fear of people and wander around home gardens and backyards causing havoc and frightening small children. In such a case, a resident can kill the moose, on condition that it be consumed, presumably, except for the brain. The intent of the law is to prevent people from killing moose for the heck of it, while allowing them to protect themselves and their property from a rampaging animal.

 

In this case, a local had dropped a moose, presumably infected with the disease, during mid-summer, but left the animal where it lay. He made no attempt to eat the moose himself nor to contact game authorities to have the moose removed and properly butchered.

 

After a few days, odors from the rotting carcass attracted the attention of outraged neighbors, who called the authorities. According to the story, the man was arrested, booked and being held pending $500 bail.

 

Like many jurisdictions, Vermont has some odd laws, including a law that requires married women to get written permission from their husbands before wearing false teeth.

 

However, it seems Alaska may have the most stringent moose protection laws, including the following-

 

Moose may not be viewed from an airplane.

It is considered an offense to push a live moose out of a moving airplane.

It is considered an offense to feed alcoholic beverages to a moose.

 

Link

[depends]

This little chart stays on the sell side - welcome to the limbo party!

 

[Guest]

Ahhh . . . I've had my little chart fix.

[Guest]

United Airlines to Quit Paying Into Pension Plans

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/24/business/24air.html

[The End]

I covered my shorts from yesterday at 1085. Might have been a mistake but, it was a profit and we came damn close to the target of 1078-80. Have a great weak-end stoolies.

[DrStool]

The more I think about it, the more I like Brian's idea of just bringing your stops down and letting then take you out. I mean what if this IS the crash. Why try to be a hero and pick the bottom. Let a trend following mechanism take you out on a reversal. If it's a crash the intraday bounces get bigger on the way down, but there are ways to handle that with trendlines and other trailing devices. It's a one in a million shot, but you don't want to miss it if this is it.

 

Not that I think it is, but this is an area for discussion. How do we insure that we don't screw ourselves out of missing a crash by covering too early? What mechanisms would you use?

[An Ant]

This little chart stays on the sell side - welcome to the limbo party!

 

[traderfromhell]

The more I think about it, the more I like Brian's idea of just bringing your stops down and letting then take you out. I mean what if this IS the crash. Why try to be a hero and pick the bottom. Let a trend following mechanism take you out on a reversal. If it's a crash the intraday bounces get bigger on the way down, but there are ways to handle that with trendlines and other trailing devices. It's a one in a million shot, but you don't want to miss it if this is it.

 

Not that I think it is, but this is an area for discussion. How do we insure that we don't screw ourselves out of missing a crash by covering too early? What mechanisms would you use?

How about a stop above the previous weeks' high Doc?

[Guest]

Hey Doc,

 

I got another one!

 

 

Name: Dr Kish Dangote.

Email: [email protected]

Phone: 234 803 3392302

 

Attn: Wilson.

 

I am Dr Kish Dangote, the personal accounting officer to

Williams Wilson, a

national of your country, who used to work with oil

company in Nigeria. Here in

after shall be referred to as my client. On the 21st of

April 2000, my client,

his wife And their three children were involved in a car

accident along sagbama

express road. All occupants of the vehicle unfortunately

lost there lives.

 

Since then I have made several enquiries to your embassy

to locate any of my

clients extended relatives this has also proved

unsuccessful. After these

several unsuccessful attempts, I decided to trace his

surname over the Internet,

to locate any member of his family hence I contacted you.

I have contacted you

to assist in repartrating the money and property left

behind by my client before

they get confisicated or declared unserviceable by the

bank where this huge

deposits were lodged.

 

Particularly, the Union bank plc where the deceased had an

account valued at

about 22.5million dollars has issued me a notice as his

accounting officer to

provide the next of kin or have the account confisicated

within the next ten

official working days. since i have been unsuccesfull in

locating the relatives

for over 2 years now i seek your consent to present you as

the next of kin of

the deceased since you have the same surname so that the

proceeds of this

account valued at 22.5million dollars can be paid to you

and then you and me can

share the money. 60% for you while 40% for me.

 

I have all necessary legal documents that can be used to

back up any claim we

may make. All I require is your honest cooperation to

enable us see this deal

through.Your tell/fax number is needed for easy

communication. I guarantee that

this will be executed under a legitimate arrangement that

will protect you from

any breach of the law. Thanks and God Bless.

 

Best Regards,

Dr Kish Dangote.

[Hiding Bear]

The more I think about it, the more I like Brian's idea of just bringing your stops down and letting then take you out. I mean what if this IS the crash. Why try to be a hero and pick the bottom. Let a trend following mechanism take you out on a reversal. If it's a crash the intraday bounces get bigger on the way down, but there are ways to handle that with trendlines and other trailing devices. It's a one in a million shot, but you don't want to miss it if this is it.

 

Not that I think it is, but this is an area for discussion. How do we insure that we don't screw ourselves out of missing a crash by covering too early? What mechanisms would you use?

Don't have the TA answer to that question, but I have the strong feeling that should there be a crash the most damage will be done either overnight or through a delayed/deffered opening of the markets. Think 9/11 and to a lesser extent October 1987. You had to be short before the markets opened.

 

The NY market is only open for trading 32.5 hours a week out of a total 168 hours a week. Only 1 chance in five something big will happen during market hours.

[brian4]

When I was in my 30's and in politics I met a guy named J. Earl White.. Earl was a Director of the CN Rail Pension Fund. Cn of course is one of the biggest railways in the world. Earl introduced me to Von Mises to Gold, to Oil and to Forex. My lady embraced forex and today is the smartest forex trader i know. Everyone needs a mentor and i had a good one. Salud Earl muy Amigo. Doc a trailing stop fairly loose works and removes emotion from the trade alls I want is to be on the right side. Most traders I know cover too early!