wndysrf Posted March 7, 2003 Author Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Brian4: Just a little constructive criticism... I think you should tone down the emotional predictions of a waterfall or collapse. Lots of inexperienced Stoolies are going short based on your rants, then they get screwed on these jam jobs, only to find out that YOU COVERED and find out AFTER the damage has been done.... You repeatedly tell people to honor their stops and trade safe, yet nobody knows where YOUR stops are, and WHEN you pull the trigger. We lost more Stoolies today. IDS is littered with dead corpses today. Losing M2M members by the day.... Who else is with me here??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubadub Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Brian4: The party line of the board is that conspiracies, levers pulled in the wee hours and sudden money infusions is what makes things move. The powers that be will always interrupt the bear party and bears live only by the grace of said powers negligence and bathroom breaks. It makes for amusing prose, but how true is it? I agree with you that things are just going down, and like the frog in a kettle of cold water with the heat turned on, it barely is noticeable at times. I think we live by supply and demand. Perhaps that's simplistic by some traders standards, but it works for me with the assistance of a few indicators, charts and effort. I just don't see the guy behind the curtain. I see a horrible socio-economic erosion going on and bubbles bursting. Sure the news makes the insane happen. But by and large the trend is what prevails. Both the Dow and S&P are exhibiting less and less ability to rally while the downtrend becomes a little more relentless each day. And yet the vix shows little if any fear. Frog Boiling Syndrome? I'm also making money this year, though it's not as easy as last, and it's certainly not by getting spooked then shucking and jiving in and out of my positions. Do you agree with the conspiracy business or are you a "mostly just charts" kinda guy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 First: Agree with Brian, and stayed short over the weekend. Second: Real life 101. One of the girls in my office asked my opinion regarding her and her hubby's financial situation, and "how much" should she take out of her soon to be new 30 year refi. I gave her the word according to the Stool of course. However to understand the situation one must realize she and her hubby are fairly typical. 47 years old 23 years left on mtg. $140K in principal $40k in credit card debt 2 teenage daughters in Catholic School Hubby working 400hrs OT each year. 0 savings. And they are seriously wanting to refi and take spending cash out ----like maybe another $40k for future land purchase-maybe-down the line a few years. Long story short I convinced them to refi with a 15yr.-eliminate the CC debt-forget any extra cash out. They will pay off the mtg faster-borrow zero un needed dollars-reduce monthly expenditures by $1k-and get some tax relief. Any future land purchases can be financed at that future time. They had never heard of such a thing and were just buying into the lie 'Till they got a taste of the stool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Mark- I have ALWAYS posted my stops-it was 853 on the SPX till yesterday-now it is 841. I believe the END and I and WH and SG are the only ones who DO post our stops. Now I addressed today and last night the people who are learning-they should not be in the market period-if they choose to be it is at their risk. Now as to waterfalls that is what we have had since January and IMHO and others we are a long way from the bottom. I'm sure DOC will say again what he said last week the number of members is up not down. Every one who logs into the site hears Winnie saying "there is nothing to fear but fear itself" that is a hell of a disclaimer. What we need is a perspective on the markets longer than i day. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Brian4: Just a little constructive criticism... I think you should tone down the emotional predictions of a waterfall or collapse. Lots of inexperienced Stoolies are going short based on your rants, then they get screwed on these jam jobs, only to find out that YOU COVERED and find out AFTER the damage has been done.... You repeatedly tell people to honor their stops and trade safe, yet nobody knows where YOUR stops are, and WHEN you pull the trigger. We lost more Stoolies today. IDS is littered with dead corpses today. Losing M2M members by the day.... Who else is with me here??? Well Mark, I'm with you 1/2 way. Everyone should realize right out that there are experienced traders like b4, oyster, pile and meciless who can do really well in these crazy markets; and, they also need to understand that these are exceptional individuals. On the other hand, you can't be there to protect people from themselves. This market is going to do its thing and take its toll and that is what it is all about. Survival of the fitest. There are too many shorts in the market and this frustrating process is going to be a painful experience for some --- myself included. If I weren't so stubborn, I'd throw in the towel, fold the tent and forget the whole corrupt mess. I just don't want the SOB's to win I suppose. I don't think b4 would intentionally or unintentionally mislead anyone. They are responsible for their own trades and blaming others isn't helpful either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madame Wrecked Him Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Who else is with me here??? Mark, WH and I are still here, and we have no intention of leaving until this whole house of cards collapses. It will happen. Loyally, MWH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyGoldenStool Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Brian4: Just a little constructive criticism... I think you should tone down the emotional predictions of a waterfall or collapse. Lots of inexperienced Stoolies are going short based on your rants, then they get screwed on these jam jobs, only to find out that YOU COVERED and find out AFTER the damage has been done.... You repeatedly tell people to honor their stops and trade safe, yet nobody knows where YOUR stops are, and WHEN you pull the trigger. We lost more Stoolies today. IDS is littered with dead corpses today. Losing M2M members by the day.... Who else is with me here??? I am. Actually donged some JNPR today for decent coin. Taking PD's advice and donging the previous glamour stocks. All it takes is some noseplugs to keep out the odor along with wearing my "TERD TRADER" hat. The ramp jobs are getting TOO predictable, though. Playing cautiously with them with my spikes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 NED-KUDO's- you gave those folks damn good advice. Rub- Yes Da BoyZ will pull stunts like today to rattle the Bears- but they don't work other than short term. The world economy is falling into an abyss-you are right! Anyone who gets caught up in Da Boyz games can't see the forest for the trees. Piles chart on page one and my comments on the markets since January say it all. I think what ruins young traders is the very talk of all the bogeymen out there it makes them lose their perspective and if you are trading and lose that you are done. DOC-says the same thing nightly-e.g. the markets aren't going anywhere! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Sheesh, NDX lost 24 points this week, the Spews 12. How we got there had some excitement but all this wailing and knashing of teeth is just a bit much. If we had that 500 point up day I could see it, but shit, the old Dow was up 66 points today, the NDX two point stinking eight and our beloved SOX was down a point and a half. The gap down opening was a dippers dream. Since I'm totally tied up in short funds it's easy for me to say I would have bought the dip. At this point all I want is a close near 800 S&P to get out and take a rest. I assume we will still get it. I sometimes wonder why so few here really pay attention to the Doc. He wondered the same today on IDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Interesting that you would say that Windy, been sucked in many a time by the hype. Not necessarily by Brian4. But by the hype here. Brian4 and Piles should be somewhat commended for their call of a waterfall decline. Let's face it, the past 2 days the Naz and DOW have been down (intraday at least) 3% and maybe would have been down more if not for the news of the capture. Which brings me to another point, the phrase "news is noise" is baloney! at least in the short term. Rubadub - couldn't agree with you more about stealth feeds in the middle of the night, and ruining the bear case etc. etc. Amusing prose. GTNworse - were speaking about Martin Sheen? God help us all if they catch Bin Laden this weekend. I'm still net short but VERY nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Did we all have fun today? Some graphs for your week end contemplation. Let us start with the big picture. Once again the omnipotent triangle with the breakdown which is now morphing into something else, or is it? See the 2 circles. They really don't look that much alike but let us look at them a little closer. Next chart Here we have a close up of the smaller circle. I got fooled by the C wave today but the bottom line is it is still a C wave. See that pattern. It is exactly like the C wave of the big triangle. Plus the A wave of both patterns is remarkably similar (abc-x-abc pattern) Repetitive behavior. Close up of the C wave. Forget about e waves here. Look at the pattern. Almost identical to the C wave of the larger triangle. Wave 1 with a running pattern, followed by down 2, up 3, down 4 and up 5. Eerie, isn't it? Now for the piece de resistance. Are we forming another triangle prior to another big move down.???? Again duplication of market patterns on differing time scales Finally, if you do not have a solid trading strategy in play, you should not be here. You should not even be contemplating being here. If you do not have a plan wrt your trading decisions, you should start preparing for a nervous breakdown. I do not mean to lecture but in my practice, I always give anyone undergoing an operation a full explanation of the pros, cons, risks, and benefits of that operation. The only difference here is you are your own surgeon Regards WH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted March 7, 2003 Report Share Posted March 7, 2003 Unfortunately, everyone is right, both here and in the market, and that's the whole problem. Everyone is right in a different timeframe, on a different scale, at different times, and on and on it goes like a presocratic paradox. I've managed to be short since the midpoint off the October lows. I had at that time realized that I was paying more to Wattahose than to myself, and began to take longer leveraged positions and hold them. It was precisely the wrong time for that strategy, but that being the case, I've managed to advance since then, money-wise. I'm at about breakeven this year. What's far more frustrating than the financial side of the trades is the emotional dimension, because I'm a fraction of the trader I was last year. It hurts worse to not be nimble than to not make money, particularly because I see the plays all day long. I need to bail on this position, let the cheque clear to my new borkerage, and get moving again. Quick scalps with very tight stops is the right way. Best is to position trade the secular trend and then hedge on hedge off intraday for profits, preferably with trailing stops. Brian4 is too nimble for the average trader to emulate. But more than that, every good trader is right, but in a different way. How many can follow Blackbelt's trades? How many can follow Oyster's trades? The true value here is trickle down of trading brilliance, and comeraderie. Mark, your balls-to-wall short n hold attitude taught me how to swagger in my trades and believe in my positions. Doc taught me how to deeply understand a chart. Bontchev taught me how to never stop learning. Merciless taught me how to get off on what I do. Brian4 taught me how to have no fear. Simple Guy taught me to combine chart patterns with fib retracements and then to trust what I see. Plungeprotector taught me to read the p/c ratio. Blackbelt taught me to care about Time. Piles taught me how I'd trade if I had a big account and could afford to do it optimally. Rockhead taught me discipline. Rich taught me to keep exploring. Slothrop, Sweef, Sniff, Thor, ... the list goes on. But my trades are my trades. Advice on what to do and when? I don't need that. Feeble traders follow others' picks. Real traders accept advice about how to be a better trader. No one can be responsible for another's positions, and only a fool could believe it's any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 8, 2003 Report Share Posted March 8, 2003 That Adam Hamilton piece is ABSOLUTELY BRILLIANT. All that is going on since the Dec high is "panic buying". Bulls frivolously seeking new profits, nervous bears protecting existing profits. It's slowly unfolding in SG's description of ewave 1,2's down the "slope-of-hope". This is painfully obvious and is providing smart money with ample time and opportunity to... PANIC NOW, AVOID THE RUSH! I've been comfortably and profitably 200% short since the lowrisk rally highs and I'm not budging based on ST foolish nonsense like today. :grin: If I were to buy this bull CRAPOLA I'd be my avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiefywiefy Posted March 8, 2003 Report Share Posted March 8, 2003 Brian4: Just a little constructive criticism... I think you should tone down the emotional predictions of a waterfall or collapse. Lots of inexperienced Stoolies are going short based on your rants, then they get screwed on these jam jobs, only to find out that YOU COVERED and find out AFTER the damage has been done.... You repeatedly tell people to honor their stops and trade safe, yet nobody knows where YOUR stops are, and WHEN you pull the trigger. We lost more Stoolies today. IDS is littered with dead corpses today. Losing M2M members by the day.... Who else is with me here??? I posted in M2M that I had covered my RYDEX shorts at the close on Tuesday. I received a couple of personal PM's that suggested I need to eliminate my emotions from trading decisions, all with genuine concern for their fellow stoolie, of which I am sure. Being sick and tired of ramp jobs is not an emotional response. It is a rational reflection and trading decision of what I am seeing, the break and jam routine. Until that pattern changes why try to front run it? I'll short after a couple of up days and cover after a couple of downers. Being in a bear market even if I'm wrong and short early I think the trend will eventually bail me out. If I miss "the great decline", I'll get a bounce to reshort or as I'm conteplating, able to buy some miners on the cheap. The emotional trading and positioning is not being done by me, it is being done by too many shorts here. I don't have the ability of other traders here but I'm learning the ability to keep my profits. FWIW, I'm using the feel of IDS as a contrarion indicator and to me I think we go higher until volume accelerates on the downside or dries up on the upside. To all stoolies following someone else: YOU are responsible for your own trades. Best advice is from Gladiator: plan your trade and trade your plan. Know your exit points when you place a trade, not after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted March 8, 2003 Report Share Posted March 8, 2003 Not that I'm a voice of reason or anything, nut last Friday, we were having these same arguments, more or less....that being said we're down for the week and not much else matters. We're going down...maybe, just not in our timeframe. Today's OBL capture let me out of all but 10 each of my March calls, March puts and I rolled that money into April for tax selling. I am left with 10 each of Mar. 79 puts, March 80 calls and Gulp, 10 KLAC 25 puts (bend over on that one) The best part of it is that I did it ONLY because of this board...I am trading safer.....Many, Many thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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