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Forecast 2004


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Am hitting my monitor, seeing negative tick.

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TRID can't even go up on what sounds like good news the last couple of days - today an agreement with Samsung today and a Chinese manufacturer the other day. Already short here but could be a better setup if it breaks 15:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=TRID,uu[w,a]daclyyay[dc][pc62!c200!f][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

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Rates must eventually drop to sustain this construct we are trapped in/dependant on...whatever happens mortgage rates must drop at some point to new lows...

 

At some point the psychology will collapse...at the back of the line in the slaughter house the cows are docile...the closer to the killing room they get the more disturbed they become...It is only a matter of time until the grim realities become self evident...first is wild desperate animal stage then in the killing room that will turn into wild cornered animal stage...

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I want to correct something Mark said. By some measuring techniques there's a target of 1160. However, the highest current cmap for any cycle I track is 1137. That does not mean they can't go higher. But that's the current cmap target for all cycles up to 13 weeks, the high of which is due today, by the way. So we'll see.

 

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So CB money is savings?

No, but their actions effectively re-allocate money from savers to the uses they want - which is mostly buying US $s. The dollars are bought under the theory they would prevent a further drop in the value of the $.

 

To balance the current account, there has to be an equal amount of US$s bought.

Otherwise market forces would raise import prices high enough where US consumers would no longer buy goods. Again this is an oversimplification.

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I'm with you on the gold talk jrm

 

Maybe gold goes down in the short term, who knows?

 

But I've said it before, as long as people keep posting charts and news about screamer bullshit stocks going from a few dollars to $10, $20, $30 and more, then why not gold stocks making some of these moves one day?

 

Remember mining shares are now starting to deal in the HARD FACT that cash gold/silver is very strong AND also backed up by some FIRM economic fundamentals (for metals).

 

Now contrast those facts against say the Nasdaq 100 stocks. :blink:

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I'm with you on the gold talk jrm

 

Maybe gold goes down in the short term, who knows?

 

But I've said it before, as long as people keep posting charts and news about screamer bullshit stocks going from a few dollars to $10, $20, $30 and more, then why not gold stocks making some of these moves one day?

 

Remember mining shares are now starting to deal in the HARD FACT that cash gold/silver is very strong AND also backed up by some FIRM economic fundamentals (for metals).

 

Now contrast those facts against say the Nasdaq 100 stocks. :blink:

i'm in good company here.

 

:D

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