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The Derivatives Tornado


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See my sentiment link above.

 

Something is obviously wrong with the data.

 

There is no way that those numbers can be pushed to such high extremes.

 

The NDX Bullish % high is now 91, that's 11 points higher than December.

 

The New Highs/New Lows is now in Outer Space, and cannot even be charted anymore.

 

What is happening?

 

Has the blowoff finished? Or is there more coming??

 

Can't wait to read Noland tonight.

 

"Wow, what a week. Extraordinary volatile markets permeate the financial system, reflecting huge malinvestments, gross distortions, and wild speculation in all arenas."

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I'll be watching that 950 area. I'm sure the bulls will be buying with a vengeance at that line.

That sounds about right...

 

I've got confluence on SPX 945-948 and the Dow 8724-8722

 

Watch the fibs and buy the retracement if volume lightens up.

 

Put your stop right under confluence.

 

Great risk/reward.

post-7-1054938928_thumb.png

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Today's candlestick pattern is not a perfect (but close enough to be a) Dark Cloud Cover

 

1206.gif

 

according to Lit wick.com

 

Dark Cloud Cover: reliability: High

 

First day is a long white day

Second day is black with an open above the high of the previous day

Second day closes within but below the midpoint of the first day?s body

 

Meaning: In an uptrend the market gaps open, but loses ground to fall below the midpoint of the previous day.....a warning sign to bullish investors

post-7-1054940384_thumb.jpg

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I know how you feel. I did the same thing, bought the QQQ at the open 31.14 thought that was a good fill watched it go to 31.48 and didn't think that was all she had so I kept it and ended up selling 30.85. It looked to me like it was going back up and I decided to buy some June 31 calls at .70 ended up selling at .45. I got whacked today.

 

I can't believe how bad I traded today.

 

Going into today I had a game plan of buying puts as soon as it started to stall. I almost pulled the trigger on some June 31's at .65 (now1.20) and some june 32's at 1.15(Now 2.00). I am just sick.

 

The whole day all I could think about is those guys that manipulated this market this high weren't going to let this week end with a big bearish engolfing candle with high volume right at the long term downtrend line.

 

One thing that still has me bothered about calling this a top is the fact that we are still in the higher end of the bullish channel and we only closed down 18 points on the Nasdaq, 2 points down on the S&P and still closed 21 green on the DOW.

 

This could very well be the top but I'm still hesitant.

 

By the way I was watching my time and sales on the QQQ a few minutes ago (ah) and saw an order for 9 million QQQ shares go thru at 30.19 when we were trading at 30.09. I've seen this before and not sure what to make of it.

 

Quicktrade

 

hey QT,

 

today was a huge volatility day - possibly a reversal day for the next trend. you took a hit for a whopping quarter on the QQQ trade and you were on the WRONG side of the market on a really BAD DAY to be swimming against the tide!.... me thinks thats not all that bad. BTW, the QQQs closed near $30 - at least you didnt hold and hope.

 

i dont trade puts, so no comment.

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I believe Oy had said he was bullish if the weekly closed above 965, the 50% retrace level from the post- 9/11 rally. This board is too bearish, too quick. Similar to our last big "down day", which was quickly reversed. 1000 is a magnet number and will not be forgotten quickly. We have recently had several high volume days with relatively little NET price movement (big intraday swings). Smells like distribution with MM's taking out stops along the way.

 

I want to see another failure over 1000; I think 1050 may be more realistic before the downtrend starts. "Profit taking" does not equal fear.

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Gap down and immediate reversal on the QQQ's. ?On volume of about 150 million, more than double the daily average.

 

Would you buy it??

LOL! OPPOSITE WORLD...

Correction,

 

"George Costanza World"

 

:lol:

 

Buy high sell higher

Sell low cover lower

Average up

Throw good money after good

Sell going down (sell into weakness)

Buy going up (buy into strength)

 

:lol:

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I believe Oy had said he was bullish if the weekly closed above 965, the 50% retrace level from the post- 9/11 rally. This board is too bearish, too quick. Similar to our last big "down day", which was quickly reversed. 1000 is a magnet number and will not be forgotten quickly. We have recently had several high volume days with relatively little NET price movement (big intraday swings). Smells like distribution with MM's taking out stops along the way.

 

I want to see another failure over 1000; I think 1050 may be more realistic before the downtrend starts. "Profit taking" does not equal fear.

06/02's SOX sell off and Today's quick reversal like heart strokes, bull may attempt new assault, the failure is expected.

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