machinehead Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 Al and Ben get a homework assignment ...... "What is an alternative for the word 'patient' boys and girls?" Front page material, 3M! E-mail it to Doc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowfish Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 MJ -Sorry to say that Don January wasn't doing it for us. Ron J seems to be the man for the job. When it comes togiving the market the shaft, well, Don just wasn't up to the task. Ron J may have the shaft, but there rest of him ain't much to look at ...I liked droopy better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 Pattern so far is the turns slap it dpwn to the bottom of the range and then it flops around till the next one, I doubt the bottom will hold thru the session still looking for 1120ish-next one is another longie from 1/4 to the hour till the top of the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 bring on 1115 spx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
threadbare Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 Icky, Beautiful. Exactly how I feel. I read Yobob and Machinehead with the same mix of awe at their talent and confusion about their conclusions. I think they're both right, for the same reasons you mentioned. Hyper inflation, followed by deflation. Price inflation for consumer stuff, services, taxes, could very well help trigger a collapse in real estate. People are already leveraged to the hilt- the cost of food and products may skyrocket to the point that the average Joe has much less left over for mortgage payments. Where corporations can merge and form oligopolies that drive out competitors, a homeowner is really the sole proprietor in the business of selling just one product in one area, his house. The home as the sole product of a business is one of the most vulnerable businesses to be in, as it's the most wage sensitive and the proprietors are not united through trade associations or any other body to help them weather a storm. It's the homeowner's inability to set price against oligopolic corporations ability to fix prices. Who's gonna blink first? BTW, I don't see this as happening right now, but absolutely forsee it in the future. It will eventually happen in agribusiness, meats, etc... milk, that sort of thing. As you say, Yobob, forget standard economic theory. This thing is going to play out so strangely and counterintuitively, people will have a very hard time predicting the future. Main street will begin to mirror Wall street in the "rigged game" of pricing. If the dollar starts to plummet, no matter how Al sees things, no matter how the great Depression looms by comparison, he's going to have to raise rates. A deflationary correction should ensue. The wild card is whether commodies will behave synchronistically, which could temper falling prices. Using both Mhead and Yobob's analyses, I went out and looked at a waterview apt in an area that is very popular for the elderly, where prices have remained steady for a decade, but just started to rise a few months ago. Still affordable. I'm pretty confident most people are betting on prices continuing to rise forever, or at least remain static, so they're pig piling on everything and anything that'll get them a decent return through rental revenue. My brother and sister and I will buy a modest apt. and be prepared to be out of the market with a bullet at the first sign it's coming apart. I'm thinking for Canada, about 2 years, give or take. Anyway that's my long winded, mildly overBEARing take on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 Them's some violent whipsaws there .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jrmfl Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 so this is where the bears meet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 so this is where the bears meet... All bears all the time! Welocome and stop on by. Great call on the short position a couple days ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jrmfl Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 Pricing Uncertainty in Gold. Pollock & Mackenzie January 20, 2004 Currently the market perceives gold as a hedge against a declining US Dollar. In contrast we view gold as the ultimate insurance for global uncertainty, and its associated risks. When framing the value of gold, deflation and inflation are not mutually exclusive position points. Presently, we are experiencing aspects of both phenomena concurrently. No matter the prevailing or countervailing wind between these forces, gold will provide safe harbor. WE ARE PRICING UNCERTAINTY TO GOLD. Gold provides the ultimate arbiter of comparative value, it always has. A deflationary outcome must to be considered regardless of central bank willingness to provide an inflationary backdrop. The integrity of fractional reserve banking cannot by its very definition be indefinitely maintained. Such systems are bankrupt at origin. During times of severe economic dislocation the dollar value of gold becomes irrelevant. We are pricing dollars in gold not gold in dollars because all fiat paper currencies will eventually find their benchmark in gold. Presently these slips of fiat money paper are colateralized in debt with the promises of repayment in good faith. Since these systems are bankrupt at origin failure eventually becomes apparent to all as common interest to a common system with mutual but not equal benefit erodes. During deflation the "fiat-money" conversion price of gold could be in fact very low. By example gold could be priced at $200 per ounce, however the amount of purchasing power could be profoundly more than gold in a runaway hyper-inflationary environment. We believe that purchasing power of gold will increase during uncertainty. It is advantageous for all portfolios to have a gold component as the definitive store of value. Efforts to inflate do in fact cause deflation. Our economic leadership, and government, embarked on a clearly defined policy to weaken the US Dollar. The stated objective of this policy was to reduce the current account deficit by expanding exports. This policy has significant side effects, many unintended results, and risks. THE CATCH, WITH INFLATING LIABILITIES AWAY WITH A WEAK DOLLAR POLICY RESIDES IN THE FACT THAT THE USD PROVIDES THE WORLD WITH ITS RESERVE STORE OF VALUE. WE ARE THREATENING THE STATUS OF THE RESERVE CURRENCY. To solidify the reserve currency, the United States has to at all times provide the world with products, materials, services, and intellectual property, at prices the rest of the world can absorb. Therefore, by printing money we are only serving to undermine international confidence in the value of our capital stock, and our ability to provide return. As we intentionally exporting inflation. The domestic economy will continue to lose jobs because our domestic labor pool cannot compete with the fair value of global labor rates. Effectively, we are inflating away our advantage of holding rights to the reserve currency. Capital and Jobs are being exported under the specter of Globalization. As the natural trend to unemployment continues the economy contracts. Aspects of the economy start to break as contractual commitments like rental agreements, mortgages, pensions, and insurance cannot be serviced. A liquidity crisis emerges. Many people equate a dollar bottom with a cup of coffee priced at $5 a cup. In a deflationary environment it would be more likely that a cup of coffee would cost .25c that few had. This is the gold purchasing power effect we initially described. Again, Gold's purchasing power will allow you to hold a currency that acts as a store of value in a deflationary environment. Pollock & Mackenzie January 20, 2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yellowfish Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 so this is where the bears meet... Glad you stopped by..come again soon. I told you there was no mania bs here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jrmfl Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 All bears all the time! Welocome and stop on by. Great call on the short position a couple days ago! whoa! all the time? sheesh, i may have to run out and buy a handle just so my liver gets some luv as well. i got an email from a stolie tipster, this was where the grizzlies meet. thanks wayne and those who lcued me in, great place here. bubble free, and refreshing. we're not outta da woods yet, but there's plenty of fun ahead. i'm waiting for when IDS let's up on the endless stream of "matrix" chatter about "saves" and such. good bottom picking then. so far, same old same old. still continuing to move paper to metal. buying up the miners for this "event" bottom as it's not going to be conventional. so why miss a limit up reversal trying to pick a bottom. you can pick your nose, your friends, but not tops and bottoms. best to the faithful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 Good to see ya JR I think you'll like it here-same pattern on that turn next one is a big one 40 minutes to the hour and 30 minutes long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 I cannot believe gold has 'sold off' like it did. This is just a running of the stops by the criminals. Let's look at what preciptiated this sell-off. Al Greasepan comes ouut and says "saaaaaay, maybe there is a little inflation out there..." THIS is what caused gold to sell off so hard? Nope. Can't be. Then it must be the prospect of the US raising rates and thereby strengthening the Dolor and since gold trades as the inverse, this is bad for gold. Could be. But how about India eliminating gold and silver import restrictions? You know, the largest consumer of the precious metals? You know, the one with a billion + population, a resurgent economy, an excellent harvest, and the highest per capita gold/silver consumption on the planet? Or how about the JP CB calling for upping its pathetic gold holdings in its reserve base? These are powerful, Bullish indicators and I, for one, ain't believing this gold weakness. In my world, the dolor bounces off its 50 dma (right about now - 50 dma = 88.19 and currently 87.90) and gold powerfully reverses and the miners act like you might expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest jrmfl Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 Good to see ya JR I think you'll like it here-same pattern on that turn next one is a big one 40 minutes to the hour and 30 minutes long. hey b4, as i recall you were short as well, what ya thinking here? appears everyone bought the fed's setup. don't see them raising overnite rates, the market will take care of that. so it's a dangerous place, where we sit... i'm flat now, cept for a little BZH and BRCM. beyond that, just buying the mining dip for the next monster upleg. bonds appears to be stuck, if they can break 108s on the long bond they'll have to let equities go to force the flow of funds there. w/o that, hyper's abyss could open wide, no robot too deft, no ego to large to be crushed like an ant. al's bought his own load of crap, somehow believing he can guide the invisible hand he can't even see. it's simply going to whack him upside his thick skull, that i relish, the aftermath i certainly do not. uncle buck looks like unmitigated desperation. and if aig gsco and jpm can't bail on these losses in gold here, well... boo hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 29, 2004 Report Share Posted January 29, 2004 bought 5 feb 1130 puts-now hold these plus 5 1150's from a while back stops on both 1137 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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