Sphinxter Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 Well everyone. Looks like we have another week of 'sustaining the unsustainable' in front of us. What will it be? Gold slams and dollar jams? A bond rally out of nowhere? Stock Market floors put in by our favorite mysterious future pit buyer(s)? Economic reports reports routed through the WH, EPA-like, for the appropriate spin before release to the economic masses? Fingers, toes, and noses jammed into every crack in the dyke. Sure hope a big-one doesn't spring open suddenly, 'cause we're almost out of appendages. Good luck trading everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 Pidgeon...visit us in So Cal (yes...that is at least interest in a So Cal meet) We are PSYCHO here! We buy HUGE SUV's and think nothing of spending $50+ just to fill them. We are narcissistic to the Nth degree, not even noticing anyone or anything. We use cell phones EVERYWHERE literally hoping for a phone call from the same people we see all of the time. We return big screen TV's because they "smell bad". We clean our carpets until the water itself used to clean can be drank as "drinking water". We buy marble tables and aristocratic furniture in hopes of later finding out that, we aren't dreaming, we REALLY ARE royalty... We drive gigantic trucks with flying saucer rims and 20-26" wheels and tires. Meanwhile, the credit card bill for $8000 for the tire and rim combination comes in and we try to figure out how being a Circuit City camcorder salesman is going to pay the bills. Out here, we live off our parents retirement savings (what little was left in their 401k) and their "housing bubble" priced home that they sold. Meanwhile, the poor parents move east and live in 200 degree weather in Las Vegas and Arizona where housing is still relatively cheap. We buy huge diamond earing sets for $1500 dollars to wear even though cubic zirconias look the same except under a microscope. We buy laptops, TV's DVD players, home theatre systems or virtually any electronic item we can get that will have that 0% for 12 months sticker on it. We go on lavish vacations even though we have nothing saved, have car payments, haven't paid files for taxes in 10+ years, etc. I personally am not a trader, (I am more interested in precious metals and maybe a few bond funds) but it would be interesting to meet people with some common sense in a world is insanity... My Wife has a Company car.....not bad, insurance included....we just traded a 2001 Tahoe LT, 23K miles for a 2003 Subarine LT w/ entertainment pkg. $38K ...he paid $25K...cost me $13K cash.......he's happy, I'm ecstatic....what a crock. The game will continue until the last dollar is spent....what do I know?...I'm part of the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crapper John Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 This looks like an explosion about to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5thelement Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 OK, I'm taking inventory now. Southern And Central Kalifornia Association of Short Sellers SACKASS???? So far, we got: wndysrf Pee Brain Crooked anal cyst Scottcardiff Old Habits BartheBear BARE (maybe) All West Coasters please sign up here and add your name to the list. We'll find one of the hot restaurants in Newport Beach and take some photos with some KLAC and NVLS look-a-likes. You know the type: 1. Shrink Wrapped Rib Cage 2. Extraordinary Breasts 3. Stick Arms 4. Drywall Flat Stomach 5. Low Self Esteem Wyndsrf: I fly into LA la land every week for work. If you're really gonna organize a SACKASS, I'd love to meet up! regards, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 House price history chart source (interactive) http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.e...e/cenc25/c25m01 http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.e....exe/fedstl/pop BarBu - those charts would seem to show that house prices are in line with population growth. Unfortunately, that's a trick o' the graph (note the very different scales on the left axes). What's important are the relative slopes of the two graphs. Using the trusty eyeball on your graphs squint-estimating that the house prices go from 18,000 to 180,000 we can derive that the slope is equivalent to a growth rate (slope) of 5.8% over 41 periods (42 years). Performing the same trusty calc on population we find that it's gone from 190,000,000 to 290,000,000 for an annual growth rate of 1.0%. Is it reasonable to conclude is that 1% base population growth leads to 5.8% house price increases? I'm not so sure. Perhaps a chart of the M3 growth would have a slope that provides a better correlation? Sphinxter, Thanks your suggestion, I replaced Population with M3, here is the chart. http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/charter.e...exe/fedstl/m3sl The link http://www.economagic.com provides many interesting data, you may use Search function to find unlisted data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 aw, shucks, FURget Las Vegas... There's a LOT of inexpensive housing in Appalachia!!! Say! Would someone attending NYCASS please report back to The BARE whether Mr TwoScrewsLoose STILL has beady little eyes AFTER he's had three or four stiff drinks in 'im? Tia! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 CrASSh???? There ain't gonna be no stinkin' crASSh?!!! The Shrub's behind the controls of the moon rocket!!! Magoo is his copilot! "Never short a Republican president." Anyone heard from Martin Weiss lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 OK, I'm taking inventory now. Southern And Central Kalifornia Association of Short Sellers SACKASS???? So far, we got: wndysrf Pee Brain Crooked anal cyst Scottcardiff Old Habits BartheBear BARE (maybe) Hadjin All West Coasters please sign up here and add your name to the list. We'll find one of the hot restaurants in Newport Beach and take some photos with some KLAC and NVLS look-a-likes. You know the type: 1. Shrink Wrapped Rib Cage 2. Extraordinary Breasts 3. Stick Arms 4. Drywall Flat Stomach 5. Low Self Esteem I'm in Corona Del Mar and would love to join the Newport affair. May I suggest Gulfstream, or the Quiet Woman or Josh Slokums ? Lots of "qualifying" venues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 WHAT A BOTTOM REALLY LOOKS LIKE This is from a newsletter calling the 1949 bottom by E George Schaefer (any relation to Bernie???) - based on DOW theory: An increasingly bullish factor in recent statistics has been the trend toward higher yields. At the intra-day lows of the past week, the 30 Dow-Jones industrials showed an average yield of 6.91%, while the 20 Dow-Jones rail stocks showed 9.12%. These high yields are approaching the extreme highs in yields recorded on only three other occasions during the past 17 years Dividend yields of 7- 9% - those were the days. These sought of yields are nowhere to be seen at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 Bullish foreign currency plays, quite soon. Bull flags on monthly big picture. C-xeu is dollar, in Euros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 I personally am not a trader, (I am more interested in precious metals and maybe a few bond funds) but it would be interesting to meet people with some common sense in a world is insanity... Same here. Groovy on the Westside, Jimi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 Asian debt withdrawal threat to US deficit No worries. Everything is fine. purdymouth The whole commentary quoted by FY lacks of rigid data, could be written by an "impressionist". The attached chart, gives some rough idea. Federal Debt: Held by Foreign & International Investors; End of Month Totals; Billions of Dollars, NSA http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/.../fedstl/fdhbfin Federal Debt Held by Foreign & International Investors http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/serie.../FDHBFIN/5/5yrs More detail data can be traced via Office of Market Finance http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-fi...management/qrc/ http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-fi...ve/2003-May.pdf Their listing is a little bit late, only covers up to first quarter, hard to judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 DROOY just cleared a longer-term fibo line. I own it and intend to own more, should ~2.59 hold as shport. Monthly XAU inverted head and shoulder pattern is powerful. A sharp pullback would clearly be within a secular bull, as Doc accurately points out. Daily and hourly for that. Monthly The trend is up, until proven otherwise. 13 day support must hold. Daily Morning shakeout? Hourly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 8, 2003 Report Share Posted September 8, 2003 Maxxi, thanks for posting the helpful link to the gold/PM charts. The comment on BGO's chart -- that while many are looking for a sector pullback, PM stocks seem to be signalling otherwise -- is noticeable even to a non-technician like me. ?Assuming it starts at 205, where do you see the A-B-C pullback on HUI? ?Would this be around 160-175 range? A point 120.44 B point 157.82 C point 140.68 A 1:1.618 gives you a target of 201 and change. A 1:1.618 equals an immediate reversal. As has been discussed earlier there's a lot of rotation going on in the golds. That said there may still be bargains out there but on the whole HUI should correct soon. XAU is not that stretched. It can still keep trucking north but will likely pull back or consolidate at best if HUI corrects. I bought AEM last Friday (in case gold shoots straight to $400). AEM is one of very few gold equities that's not stretched and does not have a lot of unfilled gaps below. For targets I use fibonaccis (the only forward looking indicator) ie. 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 but also pay attention to confluence (agreement between two trends) and pivots. Remember, this is traditionally the strongest month for golds and this is a roaring bull market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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