Charmin Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 Looking for Mr. Blowoff "On Friday, we saw 348 NYSE-listed stocks hit a new high. The day before, we saw 12 NYSE-listed stocks hit new lows. Very bullish? Yes indeed. That's the problem though...it may be too bullish. The last time we saw that many new highs was on May 5th - right before the gigantic pullback we suffered through this spring. The last time we saw that few news lows was August 31st, right before a minor pullback...To see both the new high and new low readings hit extremes simultaneously hints of a final, blowoff move. " http://www.bigtrends.com/document.jsp?documentid=355 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 XOM holders will have to be told to wipe that smirk off their face pretty soon when it revisits old highs. http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1160966813.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 From Russ Winter' Bottom line: there has been an absolute orgy of new consumer borrowing over the last three weeks. Almost unfathomable behavior, given the actual declines routinely seen in housing prices of late. Guess the Ministry of Truth convinced folks that because they had saved $2.3 billion on gasoline, that they should go on a major binge? Interestingly, the consumer reaction has been so strangely lopsided, that even a complete stooge and sycophant like George "One Trick Pony" Bush felt compelled to exercise some rare cautionary comments on this Koyaanisqatsi environment. Even the higher interest expense and sure to leave a hangover home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) are being revived. In three weeks Joe Soccer Mom added $17.3 billion new debt to the whopping $2.3 billion saved on gasoline. Do the math, and you pretty much have your $20.8 billion retail increase figure for Sept. But that wasn't all. Although real estate borrowing in the Fed data also picks up commercial borrowing, we also got confirmation from the MBAA refi index that a borrowing boomlet took place in the house as ATM realm. Conclusion, even with declining house equity, consumers mustered at minimum, equity extraction along the lines seen in the last several years. At least some will have more Ponzi finance to make house payments at least for awhile. Will they also have enough to go wild for XMAS? With rates back up some, watching the refi index going forward should give us clues. http://www.xanga.com/russwinter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 Russ made an error in that post. There has been no orgy of consumer borrowing over the last three weeks. Au contraire, in fact. The $17.8 billion increase in HELOCs was not due to an actual increase, but rather to the fact that a commercial bank (or banks) bought a portfolio of HELOCs from a non-bank lender. After adjustment, HELOCs were down on the week, and flat over the last month, and indeed the last 13 months. So the premise was wrong. The consumer is dead in the water. The gummit's retail sales numbers are a bunch of statistical BS. HELOCs and consumer loans in commercial banks have not grown one iota in more than a year. I pointed out the error to him early today, but I guess he hasn't been around today to correct it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lineup32 Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 Russ made an error in that post. There has been no orgy of consumer borrowing over the last three weeks. Au contraire, in fact. The $17.8 billion increase in HELOCs was not due to an actual increase, but rather to the fact that a commercial bank (or banks) bought a portfolio of HELOCs from a non-bank lender. After adjustment, HELOCs were down on the week, and flat over the last month, and indeed the last 13 months. So the premise was wrong. The consumer is dead in the water. The gummit's retail sales numbers are a bunch of statistical BS. HELOCs and consumer loans in commercial banks have not grown one iota in more than a year. I pointed out the error to him early today, but I guess he hasn't been around today to correct it. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> good point Doc, does that leave the 20.8 Billion YOY increase in Sept retail then a vaid increase, probably based on new credit card debt rather then fresh home ATM debt but debt non the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 No increase in credit card debt either. I don't believe the sales numbers. Something's wrong somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 Come to think of it. The increase could be coming from tourists. Weak dollar boosted shopping trips from Europe and Japan. :lol: By the way, what % is a $20.8 billion increase. Someone needs to take a look at the data and figure it out. It's not something I follow because from a trading standpoint it's irrelevant. What's relevant is how the market reacts to the newsnoise, and whether that movement should be faded or not. The actual data itself is kind of meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 Here ya go. Here's the continuous annual rate of change in retail sales. Like I said. DAID in da water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 Here's the year to year change adjusted by the gummit's bogus inflation numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 So it looks like the annual rate of growth is down to about 2% when adjusted by the bogus, understated CPI. Considering that the CPI is understated, and considering that some of that increase probably did come from tourists, it supports my contention that the US consumer is DOA. And it's only gonna get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shorty Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 Well I for one am not afraid to state my opinion. My forecast is that Real Estate will completely collapse, with single-family homes falling by 90% to 100% from their peak prices in the hottest Bubble areas. Speculative bubbles overshoot reasonable valuations on the upside and Speculative crashes undershoot "fair value" on the downside. For example, a typical termite-infested 1100 sq ft SoCal gravel front "lawn" stucco mini-box within fart's whiff of garage-squatting neighbors on three sides would sell for about $20K best case (no typo) in a decent area of the country, after it was tented and hosed down. In SoCal they've gone from $120K to $600K in the last eight years due to funny-money loan fraud. 90% off brings 'em back down to $60K, still triple what they'd fetch in an area where grass grows and air is breathable and registered sex offenders are less than 30% of the population according to gov't-provided online neighborhood maps. But with the panic exodus caused by mass layoffs in construction, house borkering, refi's and mrotgouge shystering, many of these stucco boxes will become vacant and abandoned to the cockroaches and rats, with nobody willing to pay the taxes. Thus, -100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 Let's hope SBUX can cushion the next correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FableNacy Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 Well I for one am not afraid to state my opinion. My forecast is that Real Estate will completely collapse, with single-family homes falling by 90% to 100% from their peak prices in the hottest Bubble areas. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> shorty, No doubt, the only question is "when?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted October 16, 2006 Report Share Posted October 16, 2006 This country is only a couple hundred years old and the dollar as we know it today is only about seventy years old......give it time to play out.Most world fiat is linked to the dollar so no telling what the real worth of any fiat is at any given moment, just what is acceptable. A snap of the fingers and dollar could be backed by gold again. Then what? Carry on...nothing to see here...everything is under control. <{POST_SNAPBACK}> "A snap of the fingers and dollar could be backed by gold again. Then what?" There is not enough Gold on the surface of the earth for the doo-lar to be backed by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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