Jimbo Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 AIG REALLY GOING DOWN THE GURGLUR GLUG GLUG GLUG It has lost half its value since 2000 but is still valued at 2.5 owners equity. Still lots of downside on that one. Insurers are good value at one times net assets not 2.5!!!! Their just giant call options on stocks. Shorting an insurer in this market is equivalent of shorting a perpetually dated call option!! Having said that some appear to have bottomed out - resonable value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 ROCKET TRADE OF YESTERDAY I see Alliant Techsystems went up 5% yesterday. Hope somebody out there profited from my advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 PAPER APOCALYPSO Read the Australian Financial Review as usual at lunch time today. Guess what type of asset they are trying to securatise now????? It seems a property develper called Australand is securatrising its contract receivables from off the plan sales of units. Thats right - it sellls units for no money down - say $5,000 on a $500,000 unit then it securatises the receiveabe - the remaining $495,000 contract amount. What sought of sucker is going to hold the bag on this one. Now Australand wont give a damn about signing up every dead beat wino to buy a waterfront luxury unit - its not going to carry the can when all the contracts fall through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 Yeah, but would have Pascal shorted gold now? Well, he first would had tried to work out the odds . . . given that he cofounded the theory of probability. Why short something that could go against you exponentially . . . even faster than a .com stock? Especially as there are so many fundamental arguements why the overall trend is up. My response to the current volatility was to buy COS.UN (Canadian Oil Sands Trust) on the TSX. Unlike buying an oil futures contract, I get paid a dividend (just under 6%) to hold it. And there's no rollover to deal with. Just my JP 2 Yen worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 AIG REALLY GOING DOWN THE GURGLUR GLUG GLUG GLUG It has lost half its value since 2000 but is still valued at 2.5 owners equity. Still lots of downside on that one. Insurers are good value at one times net assets not 2.5!!!! Their just giant call options on stocks. Shorting an insurer in this market is equivalent of shorting a perpetually dated call option!! Having said that some appear to have bottomed out - resonable value. My leap puts on AIG expired worthless in Jan. Small consolation to see I had the right idea. Think I'll give AIG another go. I've noticed a trend that when a "Captain of Chicanery, er, Industry" retires, the new guy is left holding the foul smelling bag. Welch (GE) and Gerstner (IBM) come to mind. AIG's Greenberg is going to retire soon . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
torah man Posted February 5, 2003 Report Share Posted February 5, 2003 While the gang here has helped me save my 401k and discover bearx, drooy,ryvnk I'll not put anymore money into the 401k instead I'll pay down my debt for awhile. does your company match any of your funds. if yes, i recommend not doing that, instead i would put it into the 401k at the most conservative option, i get a money market catagory, and let them match their amount. this serves you better for the moment with the greatest return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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