Yellowstone Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 B4 - what has me confused is, what are all these peak oil people like Matt Simmons, Colin Campbell, Richard Heinberg, Michael Ruppert, et al worrying about? They are evidently wasting their time as Canada has all the energy the world needs to put off worrying about energy for another 100 years. What has me very worried, in addition, is exactly WTF the US is doing galavanting about the ME if indeed all the energy we need is right next door in a friendly and modern nation. From a gov't POV depleting the energy resources of more hostile areas before moving to more benign nations makes sense, that is while energy resources are still relatively cheap. Conserve the resources closest to you whilst consuming those further away. However this theory this is shot when examining the history of oil exploration and extraction after WWII. An exhaustive examination of the panoramic history oil can be found in The Prize, by Daniel Yergin. ISBN 0-671-79932-0 1 barrel(42 gallons) of crude oil = 5,800,000 Btu http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/unitsindex.html Millions of BTU(natural gas) per barrel of SweetSyncrudeB 1.06 in 2000 http://www.syncrude.com/syn_library/action_plan98/record.htm Energy costs at the Syncrude complex averaged $4.44 per barrel of production in 2003 or one-fifth of a total $21.07, which was a 24-per-cent increase compared to 2002 production costs of $17.05 a barrel. http://www.canada.com/edmonton/edmontonjou...36-c3875e60512f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stained jeans Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 P.S. Sold my AU shares today at break-even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Last Thursday intra day we got to 1146.37 that is where I think it topped the next day it tested that top intra day at 1145.97. If one simply takes a ruler and lays it across those 2 tops that is the resistance today we close again well below it. The E-wavers are tearing their hair out but have no answers, the cycles folks who are generally bullish short term are getting nervous because they are running out of time. To me the markets are a crossroads here with the path of least resistance down. With the holiday week-end almost upon us who, WHO would want to go home long?? Tomorrow I think they fade Greenie and then all Hell breaks loose-we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 B4 - what has me confused is, what are all these peak oil people like Matt Simmons, Colin Campbell, Richard Heinberg, Michael Ruppert, et al worrying about? They are evidently wasting their time as Canada has all the energy the world needs to put off worrying about energy for another 100 years. What has me very worried, in addition, is exactly WTF the US is doing galavanting about the ME if indeed all the energy we need is right next door in a friendly and modern nation. From a gov't POV depleting the energy resources of more hostile areas before moving to more benign nations makes sense, that is while energy resources are still relatively cheap. Conserve the resources closest to you whilst consuming those further away. However this theory this is shot when examining the history of oil exploration and extraction after WWII. An exhaustive examination of the panoramic history oil can be found in The Prize, by Daniel Yergin. ISBN 0-671-79932-0 1 barrel(42 gallons) of crude oil = 5,800,000 Btu http://www.eia.doe.gov/kids/unitsindex.html Millions of BTU(natural gas) per barrel of SweetSyncrudeB 1.06 in 2000 http://www.syncrude.com/syn_library/action_plan98/record.htm Energy costs at the Syncrude complex averaged $4.44 per barrel of production in 2003 or one-fifth of a total $21.07, which was a 24-per-cent increase compared to 2002 production costs of $17.05 a barrel. http://www.canada.com/edmonton/edmontonjou...36-c3875e60512f zactly, we should have invaded canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Last Thursday intra day we got to 1146.37 that is where I think it topped the next day it tested that top intra day at 1145.97. If one simply takes a ruler and lays it across those 2 tops that is the resistance today we close again well below it. The E-wavers are tearing their hair out but have no answers, the cycles folks who are generally bullish short term are getting nervous because they are running out of time. To me the markets are a crossroads here with the path of least resistance down. With the holiday week-end almost upon us who, WHO would want to go home long?? Tomorrow I think they fade Greenie and then all Hell breaks loose-we shall see! My thoughts "almost" exactly Brian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 OK Twig: You went short today. How'd that work out for you? If you just take the time to look at the minute by minute ticks, you can see the intervention, plain as day. If you don't want to admit that 990N is behind it, so be it...but this is NOT a market...this is a charade...all of it. Today's script called for a close above 10,400. Ralph Block even came on CNBS in the middle of the day to proclaim the necessity to close above 10,400. As soon as I heard him, I literally cover all of my shorts, including RIMM which was down $1.25 at the time. This is not a game, this is live bullets, full tilt, media enabled and orchestrated bullshit, and shorting is no longer allowed. Virtually everything we are hearing and seeing about the war and the economy is a lie...everything. We're losing a war that they proclaim we are winning, while they force everybody who's already in theater to remain in...forever, and call up as many other warm bodies as possible to throw on the fire like so much fire wood. The consumer is NOT more confident now than he/she was three months ago...no way in hell that's true. These are lies. The PPI is a lie. The inflation numbers are a lie. The lairs have taken over. They control the media, the markets and the public perception. Think the SEC or the NASD can stop them? Not a chance. They are co-conspirators. Call this all conspiracy theory at your own peril, but we are going up from here on nothing but lies. They know that we know...and they are rubbing our noses in it, because there is quite simply nothing that can be done to stop them - and they know it. They have unlimited funds and power, and no power on earth is big enough to reign them in. Elliot Spitzer is but a useful idiot - powerless in the grand scheme of things. Let the people think they have an advocate. Let the people think the markets have reformed. Inflate, obfuscate, lie, cheat, steal, kill, dominate. It's inflate or die...and dying is not an option, and nobody can stop them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Plunger: Good rant. I've been shanked out of all my shorts the last 4 months. Its futile. I'm 100% long. I'll go with the flow until we get a confirmed break of the 200-day. No use fighting it. Plenty of stocks in powerful uptrends or with high volume breakouts. Breadth is still terrible, but I don't care. I never can pick the losers to short, I get the shaft every time...... I came so close to shorting RIMM. Now look at it AH. I don't know where the money is coming from to get into the market, but it seems limitless...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Hugh lynch expects a 25-30% decline, On Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 In a light volume environment where the portfolio sphincters never sell, short covering dominates. That and the Fed has given the Gang plenty of liquidity to apply the old strategic squeeze the nuts play wherever opportune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Optical Rectitus Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 Brisbane- I find your comments on OZ real estate fascinating as I have just been appointed co-trustee on an account that has been horribly mismanaged by a bank trust dept. Another trustee was appointed at same time as I was and is insisting we take the liquid assets and buy commercial real estate with a time horizon of 5 years. I told the other trustees if that course were followed I would resign. Why not I was asked?? I politely responded that there was no liqudity and the trust needed liquidity to meet payouts. What I REALLY wanted to say was, "You effing idiots- you are clueless !!" I do not know where I got the restraint-not from weekend b4tb certainly...LOL Optical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 TE my Pal Luck tomorrow I think it all comes down to tomorrow-may the force be with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 That being said, the market may not move straight down on higher interest rates, but they are making it much tougher to mover higher as some yields begin to get competitive. 90 day rates are up 50 bp from the low. 1 year rates are up 1.15. All in the space of a few months. Look at money market fund flows. They stopped declining about the same time stock prices ran into a brick wall. This process looks relatively typical in the big picture. Admittedly, I do not watch futures tick by tick for evidence of collusive manipulation and rigging. But the charts of the market averages look more or less normal. The cmaps have pointed to targets around these leves since shortly after the May low. Now that we are here it's time to look for evidence of a top. That's what I cover in tonight's Anals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 The End- PM for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 You know the only American oil Company I own is Murphy your largest independant they are smart folk. They are a player in the oil sands (see Yellowstones post) and along with Encana hip deep in a major, major oil find northwest of Ft.St John in B.C. Encana and Murphy paid the Provincial Gov't a record amount to enhance their land position in an area that gets no Press but could ultimately be bigger than the North Slope in Alaska..a fine Company they are! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reck Posted June 30, 2004 Report Share Posted June 30, 2004 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5322157/ 3 Marines killed in Baghdad blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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