PileDriver Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 It looks to me like today dropped far enough to seal the deal on that wave c of 2 completing on Friday. If so it thus completed as an "irregular failure" which is extremely bearish. Downward sloping corrections are rare and imply massive weakness. We'll see but it doesn't look good for bully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 25, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 That's what I like to hear PD. I can't count to five so I don't attempt waves. Thanks for the help on that. Could you expound on the "irregular feature" you see. I'll look for a cyclical explantion. I wonder what FeedFool will tell us about the wedgie the bulls are getting. :grin: Some of the short cycles rolled over. It will be a good learning experience reading Doc tonight. This is my interpetation of the 6-7 week cycle as of tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 Basically the same as what SG had been saying all along. We are now in wave #3 down which should be extended b/c wave #2 that probably just finished up on Friday failed to complete higher b/c market is so damn weak. Just like SG said expect wave #3 to be 1.618*Wave #1. Wave #1 was (930-808) or 122 Hence this move down should be 1.618*122 or 197 SPX points placing SPX at 653 or so before a wave 4 bounce then another push down into wave 5. OUCH BABY ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 25, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 Oh yeah I almost forgot. I got a lot of explaining to do with that chart. The rectangles contain periods (now and June/July) where I have identified a similar setup of the 6-7 week cycle in relation to other cycles. The top pane has the 6-7 week cycle (red) and a cycle double it's length. Magenta ovals are targets for the indicator. The fat blue squiggly indicator in the middle of the chart is the dbl length cycle. Two pairs of vertical red lines contain the period of a very short up phase for the 6-7 week cycle (red top remember). The thing is that in both cases the 6-7 week cycle turned down early and got in phase with the dbl cycle. This also implies a lower low then when they are out of phase. This in turn was all aided by the 10-12 month turning down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 25, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 Pile your getting me more excited than Maria on a DOW limit up open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 In others words what we're seeing is a rolling-over cresting wave seconds away from crashing down with massive force that will shock most people - bummer Just take a simple look at your price chart. You can practically see it. Its amazing! It happens so slowly impatient types give up and miss it. We were patient. Its just sit tight and enjoy the ride time my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 25, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 That's my story and I'm sticking to it until Mr. Market proves otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChainGangOf22 Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 The top pane has the 6-7 week cycle (red) and a cycle double it's length. Rich, Would the double-length cycle represent the 10-13 week cycle? BTW, thanks all for the excellent discussion and analysis here. You've really brought night stool back to life. I like its new persona a lot! :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 Like they say "the trend is your friend, except in the end." Trade the trend until there is overwhelming evidence it is changing. I see none! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oilman Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 Thanks for the hard work Rich, I really enjoy it. Oilman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 25, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 The top pane has the 6-7 week cycle (red) and a cycle double it's length. Rich, Would the double-length cycle represent the 10-13 week cycle? BTW, thanks all for the excellent discussion and analysis here. You've really brought night stool back to life. I like its new persona a lot! :grin: Thanks Gangof22. What makes it work is these other guys contributing. Guys like Pile have a way with words. Plus he has something to say. The dbl length cycle (blue) is a 68 day Rate of Change. The dark line in the top panel is it's smoother. With ROC I would use a cycle length of 58 days for the 10-13 week cycle. That would translate into 29 day ROC. Half the number of days. That works nice with ROC. The 68 day is not one of the cycles Doc uses and I only used it to see if it would be an aid in reading the 34 day ROC or 6-7 week cycle. I found it very helpful. I hope you can see what I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChainGangOf22 Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 Rich, I took a really close look at the chart, and I think I see what you're saying. When the two cycles get into sync like you show with the blue vertical, a big decline is a likely outcome. Especially where the price action is confirming a similar cycle pattern at the red verticals. Very nice. If we get a similar move, it really is LOB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted February 25, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 Yep that's what I'm seeing. OF course no two periods are identical there are many other factors. As you can see in the previous pages I've looked at many cyles from many angles. As Doc has been emphasizing we are at a tipping point. We need to see continued momentum over the next week. If the movement doesn't take place during the window of opportunity the moment will pass. Mixed cyclicality and more churning. We've been looking at the same numbers on the indices since July. Anyone tired of QQQ- 25? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 The rectangles contain periods (now and June/July) where I have identified a similar setup of the 6-7 week cycle in relation to other cycles. noticed the similarities to last summer with other chartfoolery too - PCR 17 day, some bradleys, etc. nice work here rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted February 25, 2003 Report Share Posted February 25, 2003 New bear market lows in much of Euroland. LOB! France, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland all joining in the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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