Hiding Bear Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Welcome to another week of trading, humor, insights, served with some political barbs and what-not at B4 the Bell! B4 has as its central theme short-term trading, lead by the astute technician Brain4. But it is also about any technical and economic issues that members think affects that - in a cordial atmosphere of a 24/7 international family lounge. Rules: Doc says - "... discussion of politics and world affairs on this thread is permitted, but 911 conspiracy discussions are off limits. I just want to add that as a general rule, I do not want to see the use of innuendo on this board. It is too easily misused, misread, and misconstrued. In any discussion, on any subject, state your theory, and the facts and logic in support of it." In the final countdown to the election, news has been toned down - least Amercians become disturbed and start thinking. A Nigerian rebel group's declaration of war has been called a strike, a power blackout in Kuwait is just a mechanical failure that won't affect oil production (says the Kuwait government), an OBL tape with coded messages and a call to eject the US from Iraq is called conciliatory with no terror threats. Food for thought: China's Great Depression Today, in a similar fashion, the seeds of Depression are sown in China. Economists hail the growth of China, many not realizing that China is undergoing an inflationary credit boom that dwarfs that American one during the roaring '20s. According to official government statistics, 2002 Chinese GDP growth was 8%, and 2003 growth was 8.5%, and some anal cysts believe these numbers to be conservative. According to the People's Bank of China own web site (www.pbc.gov.cn/english/baogaoyutongjishuju/), "Money & Quasi Money Supply" for 2001/01 was 11.89 trillion, for 2002/01 was 15.96 trillion, for 2003/01 was 19.05 trillion, and for 2004/01 was 22.51 trillion yuan. In other words, money supply for 2001, 2002, and 2003 grew respectively 34.2%, 19.3%, and 18.1%. Thus, during the last three years, money supply in China grew approximately three times faster than money supply in the U.S. during the 1920s. No wonder the Chinese stock market has been booming and the Chinese real estate market is on fire. Just like the U.S. in the 20s, China finances today foreign countries, mostly the U.S., by buying U.S. government bonds with their trade surplus dollars. Just like the Fed's failed attempts of moral suasion during the 20s, the Chinese government today similarly attempts in vain to curtail growth of credit by providing it only to those industries that need it, that is, only to industries that the government endorses for usually political reasons. Also, for most of the current boom, Chinese consumer prices have been mostly tame and even falling, while prices for raw commodities have been skyrocketing, which perfectly fits the Austrian view that prices of higher-order goods, such as raw materials, should rise relative to prices of lower-order goods, such as consumer goods. This indeed confirms that credit expansion has already been in progress for a considerable time, and that inflation now is in an advanced stage, although it has not yet reached a runaway mode. Thus, economic conditions in China today are strikingly similar to those in America during the 1920s, and the multi-year credit expansion implies that a bust is inevitable. http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/petrov103004.html Good trading! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Jim Rogers has said for years that the time to invest in China was after the 2005 bust. Wonder what Faber thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bastiat Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 In case it hasn't been posted before, there is a good paper at Gold-Eaqle by Brian Bloom on Granville's On balance volume. It is long and worth a read. A sample chart showing Walmart under distribution since February. Brian Bloom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted November 1, 2004 Author Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Personal spending has advanced 1% faster than income the last few months. Income includes an expected $47 billion in insurance reimbursements for hurricane damage, which at first glance seems excessive. The economy has 'held up' in the face of higher energy prices mostly due to a run down in the rate of savings - which may even be negative now. At this point, there is probably a significant if not substantial portion of Americans who are spending more than they make. PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS:? SEPTEMBER 2004 ? ? Personal income increased $15.1 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $9.0 billion, or 0.1 percent, in September, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.? Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $49.8 billion, or 0.6 percent.? In August, personal income increased $25.3 billion, or 0.3 percent, DPI increased $20.0 billion, or 0.2 percent, and PCE decreased $6.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 2004 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? May? ? ? June? ? ? July? ? ? Aug.? ? ? Sep. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? (Percent change from preceding month) Personal income, current dollars? ? ? ? ? 0.5? ? ? 0.2? ? ? 0.2? ? ? 0.3? ? ? 0.2 Disposable personal income: Current dollars? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.5? ? ? 0.2? ? ? 0.1? ? ? 0.2? ? ? 0.1 Chained (2000) dollars? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.1? ? ? 0.0? ? ? 0.1? ? ? 0.2? ? ? 0.0 Personal consumption expenditures: Current dollars? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 1.0? ? ? -0.3? ? ? 1.2? ? ? -0.1? ? ? 0.6 Chained (2000) dollars? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 0.6? ? ? -0.6? ? ? 1.2? ? ? -0.1? ? ? 0.5 ? ? ? ? The September and August estimates of personal income reflect the effects of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, which hit the southeastern part of the United States during these months.? BEA made largely offsetting adjustments to several components of personal income.? Rental income of persons and proprietors' income were reduced by $40.5 billion (annual rate) in September and $13.6 billion (annual rate) in August to reflect uninsured losses of residential and business property.? "Other current transfer receipts from business (net)" was boosted by $33.0 billion (annual rate) in September and $13.6 (annual rate) billion in August to reflect net insurance settlements (actual losses less expected losses) paid to persons.? Because other effects of the hurricanes were embedded in BEA's source data and could not be separately identified, BEA did not attempt to quantify their impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Amazing... Lobbying for Libya?and Bush A former administration official is raising eyebrows in Washington by working as a lobbyist for Kaddafi at the same time that she?s trying to drum up Arab-American support for the president Oct. 28 - A last-minute endorsement of President George W. Bush by a hastily formed coalition of Arab-Americans was coordinated in part by a registered lobbyist for the Libyan regime of Col. Muammar Kaddafi?a government formally branded by the State Department as a state sponsor of terrorism. Randa Fahmy Hudome, who just this month signed a $1.4 million contract to represent the Libyan government, served as a behind-the-scenes ?media consultant? helping to prepare this week's press release praising Bush?s record in promoting ?human rights, democracy and self-determination? in the Middle East, a chief organizer of the group told NEWSWEEK. Until last year, Hudome was a top Bush administration energy official, serving as chief aide on international issues to Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham. Her new role as Washington representative for the Kaddafi regime has raised eyebrows in Washington?s lobbying community?both because of the lucrative size of her contract and her continued connections with the Bush campaign. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6356977/site/newsweek/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 HB: Should we believe any of the government's numbers that lead to the contention that the economy remains in good shape? Do you accept them as accurate? "Excluding food and energy" - we'd all starve at home and/or freeze to death. I have a friend who essentially grocery shops for a living, buying snacks and other consumables for crew and talent on movies and television commercials. I just shopped with her yesterday for a shoot she is working on today. She said: "All of us in the industry agree that there is no way to provide nearly the same quality of food on the same budget this year as we did last year...no way." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Here's a stat from NL that hasn't had the benefits of cash-out refi's for the past couple of years and where retail spending has slumped. 6,900 companies went bust in the first 9 months of 04;more than has ever been recorded in the same time period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Nice boner in the PMs.. Gold up $1.50, Silver .05, Plat $2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bastiat Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 A nice cup and handle has formed now on silver. These things will take time but it's going a lot higher over the next few years, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Stoolwethers Update 1 year charts with cycle projections and intermediate targets. C JPM FNM GE GM WMT PG MMM MSFT INTC CSCO DELL AMZN IBM EBAY Today's Stoolwethers update. Take a subscribatory and download 'em RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Shell Try to Block Nigeria Oil Strike 11.01.2004, 08:11 AM Oil giant Royal Dutch/Shell Group opened a court action Monday to try to block a strike targeting oil exports in the world's No. 7 crude exporter, but failed in a first-round bid to block wildcat strikes or other union action in the meantime. The case comes one day after Nigeria's unions called the Nov. 16 strike over rising fuel prices here, and promised to target Shell - the top multinational in Nigeria - as an "enemy" of the people for taking legal action. The price of crude vaulted above the $52 mark Monday on the news. At midmorning in Europe, December crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading electronically at $52.24 a barrel - up 48 cents from its Friday closing. http://www.forbes.com/business/commerce/fe.../ap1623725.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2004/11/01/ap1623203.html Associated Press Toyota Profits Jump in First Fiscal Half 11.01.2004, 04:53 AM Toyota Motor Corp. reported an 11.4 percent jump in earnings for the first fiscal half Monday, as sales growth in North America, Europe and Japan offset losses from an unfavorable exchange rate. Group net profit at Japan's top automaker for the six months ended Sept. 30 totaled 584 billion yen (US$5.5 billion; euro 4.3 billion), up from 524.5 billion yen the same period a year ago. Sales climbed 9.7 percent to 9.0 trillion yen (US$85 billion; euro 66 billion) from 8.2 trillion yen. During the April-September period, Toyota sold 3.56 million vehicles around the world, up 397,000, or 12 percent, from the same period a year ago. At a time when rivals are struggling to boost sales at home, Toyota sold more cars during the first half in all key regions, including Japan, North America and Europe. Toyota also increased car sales in Africa and other Asian locations. Toyota said it expects to sell 7.22 million vehicles for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2005. Toyota does not give consolidated net income or sales forecasts. Toyota said its market share in the United States reached 12.1 percent, a record high for the automaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Subscribe now and read the long-term outlook dated Nov. 15, 2004. Where else can you get a two-week jump on the market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted November 1, 2004 Report Share Posted November 1, 2004 Amazing - 51 papers ditch Bush Charleston | November 1 wvgazette - Remarkably, 51 American newspapers that endorsed Republican George W. Bush in the 2000 general election have renounced him after watching his performance in office. Forty switched their support to Democratic nominee John Kerry for Tuesday's balloting, and 11 others abstained from endorsing anyone. For example, Florida's large Orlando Sentinel has backed every Republican nominee since 1968 -- but not this year. "This president has utterly failed to fulfill our expectations," the paper declared, urging its quarter-million readers to vote for Kerry. In contrast, only six newspapers that endorsed Democrat Al Gore in 2000 switched to Republican Bush this year. Altogether, according to Editor & Publisher magazine, Kerry is endorsed by 172 papers with 19 million circulation, while Bush is backed by 137 papers with 12 million circulation. http://scoop.agonist.org/story/2004/10/31/224916/80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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