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November Sector Review


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Whaaaat?

 

I think this article could prove to be even worse than cookies!!!

 

Sorry if this is a repeat.

 

New Study in CFO Magazine Casts Doubt on U.S. Corporate Profits; Comparison of Cash Flow vs. Earnings Shows a Troubling Gap

 

BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 2, 2003--CFO magazine reports that the recent upturn in U.S. corporate profits is not as significant as many press reports suggest it is. A new study, by the Financial Analysis Lab at the Georgia Institute of Technology's DuPree College of Management, finds a troubling gap between cash flow from operations and operating income last year for the 87 nonfinancial members of the S&P 100. The study finds that the difference between operating cash flow and income last year for the median company in the group was almost 12% greater than average for the three years that ended in 2002.

Such a wide gap reflects a heavy dependence on improvements in working capital and other boosts to cash flow that aren't sustainable, simply because such gains aren't generated by the growth of a company's underlying business operations. "At least some of the recent improvement in cash flow is not earnings produced," says Charles Mulford, an accounting professor who oversees the Georgia Tech Lab. "That kind of growth is not sustainable."

 

Who Has The Biggest and Smallest Gaps?

 

Biggest: (1) Sears (2) Pharmacia (3) Bristol-Myers Squibb (4) H.J. Heinz (5) Amgen (6) Hewlett-Packard (7) Microsoft (8) Allegheny Technologies (9) Lucent Technologies (10) AOL Time Warner

 

Smallest: (1) Oracle (2) Entergy (3) General Electric (4) Home Depot (5) Nextel (6) Gillette (7) Norfolk Southern (8) Burlington Northern Santa Fe (9) Anheuser-Busch (10) Minnesota Mining and Mfg.

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uffda!

Not knowing what that word(?) meant and always having been too chicken to ask Sweefrapp, I decided to look it up. This is what I found at a site called "Dave's Uffda Page." . . .

 

You may have seen it on bumper stickers of cars somewhere in the USA or Canada. Norwegians have been known to express themselves with "Uffda" in many situations, but you can't find it in the dictionary. Here are a few situations you might hear a Norwegian use the eclectic phrase, "Uffda!"

 

UFF DA IS:

 

trying to dance the polka to rock and roll music

eating at Inga and Lena's restaurant and finding out they only serve Mexican food

having Swedish meat balls at a lutefisk supper

finding out Ole and Svens is a pizza place in Grand Marais, MN

having more miles on your snowblower than your car

walking downstairs and then forgetting what you wanted

arriving late at a lutefisk supper and getting served minced ham instead

having to take your kids Trick or Treating in a blizzard.

trying to pour two buckets of manure into one bucket

having a mouse crawl up your leg when you're on a hayload

eating hot soup when you've got a runny nose

knowing somewere in the state of Minnesota is a piece of frozen metal with a piece of your tongue still attached.

getting swished in the face with a cow's wet tail

waking yourself up in church with your own snoring

forgetting your mother-in-law's first name

having spent the last fifteen minutes getting your kid dressed to play in the snow only to have him tell you that NOW he has to go potty

noticing non-Norwegians at a church dinner using lefse for a napkin

eating a delicious sandwich and then discovering the spread is cat food

sneezing so hard at the dinner table that your false teeth end up in the bread plate

having attended a formal affair in your best dress, finest jewelry, wearing your Sorrels.

Uffda!

 

I still don't know what it means. Heck, I don't even understand what most of the examples mean!

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"decided lack of volatility in the 30-year bond."

 

Give me a break. The last 6 months have been the most volatile in the history of bond trading.

Word. Tanks for the bearish encouragement. Someone is about to get fulcrumed, and it won't be the bears. :D

 

While I think the Fed is targeting the stock market, which is also main reason why I don't think they are targeting the bond market. However I am still unsure what exactly they mean to accomplish for the market other than try to stabilize it. Do they really think they can set a specific market level? Sounds a little far fetched even for the Fed, because even the Fed can see maintaining a level - like Japan is trying mightily to do with the US$ - is very difficult.

 

The last six months, the bond market has rallied frequently during times of foreign central bank intervention - and fallen when this buying pressure recedes. The rate of these central bank purchases, if plotted as shown in this graph from PruBear, is becoming hyperbolic. Don?t think the Fed is directing that show, but secretly welcomes it.

post-7-1070678334_thumb.jpg

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I believed I have just ventured into the relm of "Rule No. 5" so I will say good night. Nice day to be short for once huh? :wink2:

bailed on XLNX +.77 ave on a mountain of it.

 

gonna reload, but somehow, it's not done just yet.

 

monday, do or die.

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Lance Lewis continues to harp on an imminent gold stock collapse, "deflationary spiral, etc." just like Bob Prechter.

 

Maybe he's right.

 

But if he's wrong, I'm going to hang him for it.

 

I'll cut and paste each one of his warnings the last couple of weeks, and document how much profit I would have lost if I had heeded his warning.

 

And worse, the losses if I had shorted HMY and GFI at the same time.

 

Somebody is about to get stuffed big time.

 

Somebody is going to be a Big Hero, or a Goat.

 

Might be me.

 

Might be Lance.

 

We'll find out next week.

Get over to Sinclair's site, ASAP.

 

Sinclair's not too shabby at charting. Go over the material.. look at the currencies that are breaking out.

 

Then look at the CRB.

 

Then go to the closet, breakout the spurs & chaps.. and get ready to ride the GOLD bull.

 

Saddle up ...yee freak'n haw!

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Wndy, Great article on gold outlook

 

http://www.weedenco.com/welling/lilogopv.asp

 

 

hopefully not old news. I think yesterday's shakeout took down a few fair-weather gold bulls and was constructive to the bull case after todays quick rebound.

 

everyone seems to the salivating for $420, and today would have been a good excuse to dump to $380 and clear out all the johnny come latelys.

 

Maybe gold runs to $435, the HUI hits 300, the news catches the eye of Crapvision and then it takes a $50 dump before running to $500.

 

long BGEIX.

 

will enter KGC & CALVF on a 10% dump (assuming we get one)

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lance & mikey cost their sheep a whole bunch of fleece.

 

eff them , gold is fine.

Gold is fine, which is why my long term holdings are physical metal. Lewis, Arnold et al have been on target with bullion for some time.

 

Shares are essentially leveraged bullion holdings, with currency-geologic-political issues and, of course, hedging as variables to the market valuation of each issue. Lewis claims that the market is discounting $600 gold and that gold shares in general are overvalued. Relative to chip prices, INTC is trading at a 10x (or more) discount to the already "overvalued" gold shares. So what's the big deal about XAU-HUI valuations?

 

Valuation of any stock is simply the instantaneous price the market sets for it. I have never traded based on valuation.

 

I am more impressed by the lack of gold movement based on it's monetary value when compared with world currencies, not just the USD. I am waiting to see what happens to bullion when the USD bounces. And then, when we have our liquidity crisis in 2004.

 

I bought enough metal in 2002 that I'm not worried about missing a blast up; I'll be a bullion buyer again at 350 gold/4ish silver. Until things become clearer, I just play XAU put & call options from doversole/doverbought areas.

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