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Bears Blew It?


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Thanks Wyndy for comment. Ord may only be in a few days. Of course if market decides to respond to bad news (and, in fact, the news is bad on unemployment) and does so on increasing volume, I suspect Ord will be out. But you know his method; and it has made him one of the best market timers for the last few years. O'Brien thought move back up could take as long as a week. I think they both expect bounce-back to occur on diminishing volume setting up the slaughter which might begin around Crawford's day of foreboding. What is tough for a simple trader like myself is to be long March in the money QQQ puts with Ord suggesting I may see pain during the next week. I would think if market goes down in response to bad news and does so on lukewarm volume, then it will come roaring back in late morning or afternoon trading. Hey SG, is this what makes for horse races? :unsure:

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Fred Hickey predicts a major warning out of DELL or INTC soon.

Fred Hickey is the best tech anal cyst on the planet. I know that to the TA & wave guys news is noise; however, every call he has made concerning tech has been spot on. What is funny, is he has also lamented having to be short these past few years when he really prefers buying tech stocks "dirt cheap."His monthly newsletter, The High Tech Strategist, is a steal at $150.00 per year. Combining his insight with the resources available in Stoolville has been very profitable for me :grin:

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job data will decide where we will go.

 

it is one of THE numbers boys do watch, a very important one.

Note: They expect a RISE in non farm payrolls :o and they expect unemploament rate unchanged at 6.0% :o

 

very high expectations!

 

Remember: We are not in the "bad news is good news phase".

 

Tomorrow will be a down day.

 

Gute Nacht! :D

Heaven only knows how the employment date will be spun.

 

Employment Data

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Geez-I didn't think it was a bad day at all. We kept going down in the SPX and Dow setting new lows in both for the move. We took out 840 which we had to and walked this beast to the edge of the abyss twice and had a small rally into the close. The only fly in the ointment was the double bottom at approx 833.25. That double bottom could give us a bounce to suffer through for a few days. This beast is coiled like a snake more coiled than I've seen it in years-this is the range to watch-we go above 8000 on the Dow look for a sharp and painful rally to ensue. Conversely we break the bottom on the SPOO'S at 833 we go down to 824 but more probably straight to 800. Now you notice I haven't mentioned NazQuack that's because it is DEAD it will simply do and follow what the Dow and SPOO'S do. To each his own but i simply don't understand why anyone would game NazQuack-net movement on the Q's in the last two sessions +0.02-in the COMP -4.42-NDX -1.18 nuff said-Trade Safe!

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Tig, interesting chart - is it possible that the ratio problem would be "fixed" if POG went down and HUI stayed flat? I'm not a chart expert - just wondering.

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Alex,

 

Definitely, by bringing the denominator down it would definitely improve. The chart is using yesterday's COMEX and HUI figures, but with the COMEX close at $370 and the HUI at 140.92 we are still at 0.3808.

 

I dont think the chart is really that significant, just an interesting look at where we stand even with the recent ramp in the POG.

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this tom obrien thing is bothering me....

 

 

he's been expecting a bounce since 880 every day telling people

it made a lower low on lower volume the bounce is coming in...

 

his system works if volume is distributed equally throughout year but it isn't..

 

i went short at 868 break of the head and shoulders period..

 

what i think obrien is missing is the idea that there are times seasonally

when money comes into the market statistically it was proven around oct 10

is a very big infusion where everybody gets up off the sidelines and throws money

at market...

 

In january there is a minor infusion of cash and reduced selling due to yearend

taxloss selling...so we get the usual january bump....

 

there is no cash coming and people long now are waiting for the other suckers

to follow them and there is no more cash coming in just people that will eventually

sell at lower prices realizing no one else is coming to the party...

 

to top it off statistically if oct to jan is up and january is up there is a 15% chance

february will be up as per i think newman...and crawford says january infusion tends to end jan 20

 

my 2 cents

 

checkout jrs for 9% dividend yield

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