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Bumping Its Head


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Hmmm well today's market not as bearish as I'd like to see it. Repeated attempts to crank some upside enthusiasm but doesn't seem to be working. On the other hand not a heap of downside either although the golds taking a hit. I would not like to see a pop here as most stocks banging up against massive resistance and any break through that would mean a decent sort of rally, not good for my puts. Personally I think any action will be sideways at best as not enough strength to push this thing up but sideways makes no one happy except option sellers...Just have to wait for the herd to stampede I guess....

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Don't you hate it when the facts get in the way of a good dividend tax cut story?

 

From Bill Fleckenstein last night:

 

"On that score, I would like to share some comments by the always insightful Dick Russell of the Web site Dow Theory Letters. Inspired by a letter to the editor that ran in this past weekend's Barron's, he said: "The reader notes that the S&P dividend yield is currently 1.75%. Many anal cysts think that the yield for the S&P could be boosted to 3% or even 4%. Not so. Currently, S&P companies pay out 53% of their earnings in dividends. In 1981, at which time the S&P yielded 6%, its companies paid out 45% of their earnings in the form of dividends. But currently, this can't happen. There just aren't enough earnings."

 

http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/marketra...p/10061323.html

 

He went on to say to only way possible for the S&P dividend yield to reach 3% to 4% would be if either the compies paid out 100% of their earnings or the S&P was cut in half.

 

Maybe we will get the second choice.

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. . .
Mercury retro generally means a top is forming-tomorrow thru Friday is a solar-lunar reversal zone which almost always signifies a huge reversal from a low or a high.

 

actually, the onset of mercury Rx is the dinger for a reversal (if i remember, hoodwink cited a 70% or so correspondence). once it's goin backwids, it's goin backwids.

 

what's a solar-lunar reversal zone?

I don't know what it is but, 5 will get you 10 you need special plates to park there.

 

I have a question for the lavatory. . . I mean peanut gallery.

I'm thinking of shorting XLNX. Does anyone find Xilinx a lousy candidate? I'd like to go down on her tomorrow or Turdsday.

 

TIA

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Hello Riverboaters....

 

Glad to have the day off today.

 

Looks like I missed a lot of sword slashing in the Arena.

 

New highs on ORCL, BEAS, and MERQ???

 

IBM popped again?

 

Final top on QLGC and XLNX?

 

Naz 5-day ARMS near a record low again.

 

Stocks pushing to new highs today on big volume means means were are at an intermediate top, not the final top.

 

Looks like we are in the exact same pattern as Summer 2001, up, down, up, down.

 

So many were convinced to go long.

 

Shorts repeatedly blown out.

 

Then the Sept. 11 lows.

 

Which top is this?

 

Will the next top be higher or lower?

 

This configuration of multiple tops solves the puzzle about the multiple Fib clusters in January and February.

 

I plan on using the next downwave to close all shorts.

 

Then I'll load up on new shorts on the NEXT top.

 

Commentary will resume tomorrow.

 

Next buying opportunity in gold and silver shares coming up....

 

As long as the volume doesn't get out of hand when they sell off.

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Mousey,

 

I am not reco. anything but, it's 150day sma is flatening out from a decline and it is trading well over that. A move back to it's ma is possible. (21ish)

 

Do keep in mind the rising volume on this advance however.

 

If it where me, i would not do it.

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Gateway warns tonight.

 

"POWAY, Calif. (AP) -- Struggling computer maker Gateway Inc. warned Tuesday it expects to post a larger-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter due to disappointing holiday sales."

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/030107/gateway_2.html

 

Most likely means nobody will upgrade the semis for a least one day.

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