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B4 The Bell Weak-end Thread.


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You have chuckle at the pathetic full court press in the media today that"the ETA did it-not Al Quackda" the found truck with remote control detonators and the Koran has disappeared below the radar screen. Have to avoid panic y'know the markets might go down. While this is going on New York City announces that Bomb sniffing dogs will walk the train tracks in the subway- Just a coincident it happened exactly 911 days after 911-nothing to see here move along! ;)

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Some very good thoughts have been posted this morning by some very wise people.  We will be very lucky if the wheels stay on until the election.

couldn't agree more b4. not to say that it won't happen, but it seems like They started the election ramp too early....and here we are 8 months from november, wondering what, exactly, is responsible for the nasty smell on the breeze.

 

GWB is going to hit a tough patch by june or so - just a prognostification - and if the stock market is (still?) swirling the bowl at that point, it may not matter so much what happens afterward.

 

sort of feel like paying cash for a rig from yobob, on principle.

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Some very good thoughts have been posted this morning by some very wise people.? We will be very lucky if the wheels stay on until the election.

couldn't agree more b4. not to say that it won't happen, but it seems like They started the election ramp too early....and here we are 8 months from november, wondering what, exactly, is responsible for the nasty smell on the breeze.

 

GWB is going to hit a tough patch by june or so - just a prognostification - and if the stock market is (still?) swirling the bowl at that point, it may not matter so much what happens afterward.

 

sort of feel like paying cash for a rig from yobob, on principle.

Howdy ho Phat. While we still accept cash we prefer gold and silver. :lol:

 

I said six months ago that GWB was peaking way too early. He has lost the support of most of the major "conservative" journalists and talk shows. He appears to be floundering around on his own with no backing from the matrix who seem to be distancing themselves from his toxic trail.

 

It will only get worse as the slow grind to the POR continues unabated. The fed can't raise rates nor can they lower them. They continue to spew forth only a minor support of pumpage. Basically they've been sidelined. RE isn't responding to lower rates, as expected. Prices have gotten too high and they have sucked the barrrel dry of new fodder. They are now down to financing the unfinaceable with zero down, interest only loans. There's a whole lot of recently written garbage paper that will be going bad very soon. The sheeple's real incomes continue to decline while energy absorbs an ever higher percentage of what they have left to spend and they're up to their eyeballs in debt. Too bad they can't breathe through their eyeballs. Once this last wave of tax refund money passes, which most of it already has, where will the fresh cash come from?

 

A major stock market decline at this particular moment in history would have very large ramifications to the psyche of the sheeple and their subsequent behaviour.

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Mindless ranting to follow...

 

Yes MH has the experiance to play the game...He's got the edge...

 

There is not a shortage of oil...The primary reason oil is going up is because of production cuts...

 

Cartel control...A cartel will always manipulate the supply in line with demand to support their respective debt inflated empires...Failure to control supply will lead to a glut...

 

Oilwells are drilled with borrowed money...and the oil when found is sold as a futures contract...The time when found to delivery...Oil and gas are sold before it is even pumped out of the ground...Exploration then becomes a very important part of the equation...

 

As exploration continues the cost rises...If the cost to explore/exploit is greater than profit then exploration/exploitation grinds to a halt...Then reserves get pumped faster...In 98 the drop in demand for oil was so quick production could not be cut fast enough...Exploration collapsed and reserves were pumped massively to maintain the various debt inflated empires...causing a glut which crashed the price of oil to below $10 a barrel...

 

I see nothing except cartel control keeping the price of oil where it is...

 

OPEC? Is the creation of US oil interests and under their control...When Saudi Arabia cuts production and the Oil soaked White house says they are concerned, they are not concerned that prices are too high the only concern is that an oilman has is that prices go to low...At some point if prices go to low then more oil must be pumped to support the oilmans debt inflated empire...supply outstrips demand and the whole mess implodes...

 

Publicly an Oilman will condem OPEC privately they will thank OPEC for a job well done...

 

The general population is clueless to the true mechanics...

 

It is all dependant on debt inflation...

 

A higher oil price leads to increased levels of debt inflation...each dollar rise in price means that $1 more of debt inflationary potential can exist...

 

Prices can't go too high and can't go too low...

 

At the very base of all this are compound interest rates...which also can't go too high and can't go too low...

 

Currently rates are not low enough and since we are so close to zero it takes massive debt volume to sustain profitability or allow rates to be where they are...

 

At some point the monetary cartel will reach the end game...You can not go below zero rates, it is impossible...If to sustain your empire which is fueled by the production of the required amount of debt inflation to overpower debt deflationary potential then rates must continue their 22 year drop in search of volume forever...

 

ZERO can not be crossed...And debt inflationary potential weakens over time so holding rates down will only work for so long...

 

Checkmate is where the totally science fiction concept of a hyperdeflationary implosion of debt takes place...

 

That is where we are headed...we have been caught in this trap for 45+ years 70 if you include the bottom of the great depression...But the current debt inflationary self delusional bubble is realisticly 45+ years old and just happens to be the greatest such bubble in the entire 400+ year history of centralized fractional reserve banking...

 

There is no escape...

 

The case for debt inflation has been made...decades ago...Civilization as it is currently understood is as dependant on debt inflation as you are on food or water...I'm fully aware of the situation...

 

To continue the status quo rates must keep dropping...failure to accomplish that will cause the status quo to spin out of control with no real way to stop it short of draconian dicatorial iron fisted action...By any party...There is no messiah or saviour...there is not going to be a miracle...The department of Homeland security is not a department...It is the NEW Government in waiting

 

Checkmate will be reached...

 

Debt deflation is going to show up and due to the inability to cross the zero barier in rates...There will be no way to produce a hyperinflationary blast to overpower it...

 

IT WILL BE TOTALLY UNSTOPPABLE...

 

Just as debt inflation was totally unstoppable on the way up to it's maximum potential so too will debt deflation on it's way down to maximum potential...

 

There hasn't been a debt deflationary implosion in 70 years...There is no way to prevent a debt deflationary implosion in a fractional reserve banking system...

 

Due to the construction of the system a debt deflationary implosion is a natural function of the system...It is systemic...economic doomsday is built in...Once you embrace fractional reserve banking as your savior economic doomsday at some point is a certainty...We just happen to exist at a point in time where this grim reality will play out...

 

Hyper what do we do?

 

Drop rates...

 

We can't!

 

Then you are screwed blued and tatooed...The end...run for your lives...

 

All that you can do is postpone it...you can not prevent it, it is an impossibility...

 

The longer you postpone it the more the underlying debt deflationary potential is built up...

 

When you reach the end of the line the debt deflationary potential floods out and overwhelms/drowns the system...

 

At which point no amount of production cuts can have an effect...You can't cut production to zero and hope to survive...

 

The mighty will fall...

 

Debt deflation is the flipside of debt inflation...Everything will flip...The "pole shift"

 

Happy will become sad...hope will become despair...You get it yet?

 

Civil Democracy will become Military dictatorship...

 

The just think positive inflation forever religious cult will cave in...

 

Can't you see it moving in that direction yet? How much further do we have to crumble until it becomes apparent that we have been crumbling for decades?

 

When do you take your head out of the debt inflationary feeding trough? When you are full? when is that? when it runs out? Then what? run around with the other 100's of millions of starving victims in a panic? Putty in the hands of the absolute capitalists? Forced to believe new lies or risk being cut off from the rationed debt inflationary food supply totally?

 

How much per month do you require to operate your own personal debt inflated empire? Do you have a printing press to support it?

 

How much is your psychological well being dependant on $?

 

What makes you think those who do have the printing press are going to save you?

 

A printing press will be used to print money to pay soldiers to throw you up against a wall and shoot you or operate a detention/work camp network...

 

We owe everything to the people who control credit and the printing press...They owe us nothing...zero...Where is the law written that states that those who are owed are subservient to those who owe? Where do these flawed logical daydreams come from?

 

Yes Hyper eventually you are going to be right if you keep blathering on like you do...

 

When the day I'm right shows up...You will wish you took the time to work on breaking free from the debt inflationary self delusion...when you are cut off the withdrawl is going to be more powerful then you can imagine...

 

It has so far taken me almost 7 years to deprogram...If you don't build up a psychological resistance to the inevitable horrorshow unfolding you will be destroyed almost instantaneously...

 

When all your hopes and dreams which totally depend on the perpetual production of the required amount of debt inflation vaporizes faster then you can currently imagine...

 

Everything I've babbled about and more will become sickeningly blindingly self evident...

 

This is not the Hypertiger scenario...It is the cold cruel reality which we are racing towards...It will happen whether I exist or not...I didn't cause it...I don't control it...I just comprehend it...and try while there is still time before the maximum impact to warn about something which 99.999999% of the population is 100% sure is totally impossible...when in fact the longer we operate in a fractional reserve system the more probable it becomes by the second...

 

All a fractional reserve system is designed to do is inflate debt to it's maximum potential then implode...

 

That is all they can do...It has been 70 years since the last implosion and that was a primitive gold backed system a minor event that set the stage for the final climax WW2 the reduction to rubble of most of Europe and Asia, 100 million dead...Debt backed fractional reserve systems are the weakest of all monetary systems...

 

What we are headed into will not be minor...Because a debt backed system has no physical backing there is no realistic way to predict what the maximum potential debt deflation that will result...there is no bottom except zero...

 

It is possible that we will go beyond a collapse and head into a complete breakdown...100% flush down the toilet oblivion...

 

I've studied the absolute capitalists for 16 years...that is what they have been preparing for and are currently putting the finishing touches on...Right in front of everyones eyes...

 

When I brain damage myself and employ pure absolute capitalist reason that is the logical conclusion that keeps showing up...

 

First wild desperate animal stage which I think is safe at this point to say we are in...then comes wild cornered animal stage...then the kill them all and let GOD sort them out stage...

 

Stages of fractional reserve banking...

 

1. debt inflation (What we are on the tail end of after 45 or 70 years depending on where you want to set the clock ticking I say 45 because that is where the beginning of the end of gold backed fractional reserve banking started and the beginning of debt backed began it was confirmed in 1971 with the closing of the gold window)

 

Do whatever it takes to maintain 1, if you can't then go to number 2

 

2. debt deflation (Where we are going/are in the beginning stages of)

 

Do whatever it takes to go back to 1, if you can't then go to number 3 (Compound interest rates that need to drop below zero can't be accomplished so dabt inflation at that point can not be kick started)

 

3. Implosion then consolidation (Where we ultimatle are inevitably destined to go due to dependance on fractional reserve banking)

 

When/If the smoke clears and order is restored go back to 1 else go to 4

 

4. run around in the crumbling ruins like idiots...start from scratch...(possible but I don't even want to think about it too much)

 

The above is what we a caught in...all that needs to be done is to fill in the dates...It is where we are currently headed...It is a certainty...

 

The just think positive inflation forever religious cult will not provide salvation...It is a key reason why we are damned since it forces denial of reality...

 

All current economic philosophy is based on absolute self indulgent reason...denial of reality/truth...

 

All of it is pure hogwash...They are mostly long drawn out methods/procedures to articulate justifiable means to condone theft from the bottom by the top...

 

They will be of zero use...I've looked at them all...even the Austrians think compound interest is justifiable or a legitimate policy...

 

Compound interest is welfare for the top paid by the bottom and is a key reason why I'm right and everyone else is toast...

 

I understand that the statement compound interest is good is a false boolean logical statement...

 

Compound interest is the Holy of Holies...the alpha and omega...of the Debt inflationary self delusional religious cult...

 

None of you can after exposure to 400+ years of centralized fractional reserve banking induced social engineering comprehend any different...

 

In all your minds the statement Compound interest is good is a true boolean logical statment...but totally and fatally false...

 

Absolute self indulgent reason prevents you from comprending this simple fact...

 

That is the paramount fatal flaw in current economic philosophy...The primary false assumption...

 

You would agree that the statement Putting a loaded shotgun in your mouth and pulling the trigger is good to be a false boolean logical statement...

 

Compound interest is GOD is also a false statement...

 

BUT YOU WORSHIP IT AS IF IT WAS GOD!!!!!!!!!!

 

WAKE UP RETARDS!!!!!!!!!!

 

That concludes another big waste of time...

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Good to see you Phat-visit more often ;)

thanks b4 :) - we were in the dahk ages of no home internet for 4 months (infrastructure issues here) - just back in the past week or so. just in time, hopefully. ;)

Damn Phat...I wish I had been without an Internet connection for the past four months...could have saved some coin.

 

The timing of your return is impeccable...welcome back!

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We all know that 200,000 plus jobs have to be created each and every month to have a recovery, we all know they aren't even close BUT even more startling from todays Daily Reckoning letter " Since March of 2003 net jobs have increased by a paltry 122,000." The most pumping ever, the lowest rates ever, the most tax cuts ever have given us the biggest deficit ever and zero jobs. The desperation is already showing-when any idiot with lousy credit can buy a house with zero money down and an interest only loan the coming implosion is right around the corner.

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thanks plunger, appreciate it. :)

 

hyper - you're preaching to the choir here. the timing of the x to x+4 months scenario not hitting the nail on the head doesn't undercut the mathematical integrity of your debt deflation argument. it's precisely this that suggests that the actuality of deflation, particularly in 'real stuff', will be masked by the current digital fiat orgy for longer than anyone might think possible.

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MH:

 

You say you are investing in oil.

 

What in particular are you investing in?  Oil and gas stocks?  Futures?

More particulars would be appreciated.

 

Thanks,

 

Stinky

I'm buying Dec. 2004 and Dec. 2005 crude oil.

 

Nymex quotes

 

The former sells at about a $4.00 discount to the spot price; the latter at a $6.50 discount. It means the market thinks the current supply tightness is temporary.

 

I respectfully disagree. There's an article in Barron's this weekend, where this issue is also discussed.

 

I could be wrong. But if the spot price falls from $36 to $32 by December, I'll still break even.

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Picture how many former home owners will reside in RVs in the future...no address, no phone, no creditors hounding them...just living off the land with a cane pole and some worms and some moonshine... at the end of some dirt road along a river in the south.  Frightening, and real.

Actually that sounds pretty appealing, Plunger.

 

With a satellite dish on the roof, I could still trade crude oil on the side, when I wuzn't fishin.' B)

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