seamus Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 MJ - Supply/demand...you can tally up maturities, weighted avg calls and puts on bonds, buybacks, defaults etc vs. expectations for new supply over the year. Forecasts were for little change in supply +/-, but massive maturing bonds. Can't recall exact figure, came from something I read beginning of the year. 98 was a massive year for issuance. Simply, managers have more cash to put to work than at any time in the last 5 years I believe. Potent cocktail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 Some important technical events at the close of the weeks trading. First weekly close below 20 month moving average at 978 or so. Setting up a pretty bearish candle on the monthly chart RIGHT AT 20 MA resistance. No trade over 991 and lower trade than prior lows keeps 477 in play as a target based on weekly, daily and intraday fibo wave structures. First weekly close below 983 which is the 38.2% retrace of 1974-2000 bull market move. BEARISH, BEARISH, BEARISH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMotleyStool Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 The bulls at the Hamptons was not an after-the-fact excuse for the down day. In fact, Cramer's article predicting this was published at 9:04 this morning EST and likely wrote earlier than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMotleyStool Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 Apparently, some bulls at RealMoney are not content with calling this 1991. They are calling this 1933, with the bottom clearly in and rocketing higher from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 I have a question if anyone wants to respond, Could it be that today is to Monday what Wednesday was to Thursday ie., a bear trap into the EOM? Regarding the "gone to the Hamptons" theory. I get off at the Wall Street stop on the Lexington Line (the stop you used to see all of those sallow, ashen faced people getting off of at the beginning of "Wall Street Week" when Lose Rookuser was still on it.). I know how populated the trains are on those getaway days and today wasn't one of them. My train was packed. The Wall Street area was packed. At lunch time the streets were as populated as they are on any regular day. This is purely anadotal but, I don't think the "gone to the Hamptons" excuse holds stool. They were all at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted June 28, 2003 Report Share Posted June 28, 2003 In SHORT (pun Intended) it's not a bear trap Mousey-Scott has detailed it already so I don't have to repeat. Top was in at 1015 we have been down for 3 straight weeks now we pick up momentum. Although on Monday I do see a bounce-say 980-88 tops and then DOWN we go BIG! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted June 28, 2003 Author Report Share Posted June 28, 2003 MJ: Seamus misspoke when he said "technicals". Its just a buzzword for favorable supply/demand dynamics. More simply stated: Al Green's 1% short term rate, Riverboated with 100:1 leverage into long term instruments now yielding 50 bp higher than last week means more profiteering for the Spread Traders. All securitized debt has been sent to the Beverly Hills Reconstructive Surgery Center, fitted with artificial guarantees, AAA-ratings, fancy credit insurance, all of which provides the illusion that "debt" is as good as "money". With the Securitization Bonanza at full speed, markets at maximum liquidity, the Atomic Particle Accelerator is now running at terminal speed with terminal efficiency at spinning the worst of the worst credit garbage into "marketable securities", speculators are latching on to any and all crap that pays a decent yield. Amazing how high of a pile of Promise Tickets has been constructed, all hinged on the faith of the Greenspan and Bernake Put. One giant spiral condom, assuring all speculators that trading risk and credit risk has been offloaded into outer space, and that any financial transaction, no matter how complex or bizarre, is permanently protected against a 10 Sigma event. GM's deal was oversubscribed, consumed within hours with no due diligence necessary. Anything and everything with a yield that is slightly above a mortgage-back is vacuumed up by some HedgeFund anxious for "yield enhancement". A HedgeHog using insane leverage can juice up his rate of return by 35% if he can find some guaranteed piece of garbage like GM bonds which pay .05% better than anything else. And of course, if its GM, then its "too big to fail", therefore the likelihood of a WorldCon or Enron debacle resulting in a total wipeout is nil. We had the same corporate debt bonanza going on during March Madness of 2002. Remember Lucent, France Telecom, and all that other crap being issued in a week's notice? Four months later, that stuff was on the verge of default, spreads blown out to unrecognizable levels, not seen since 1998. It is possible that one day soon, that GM debt will be a millstone around someone's neck, spread will blow out again, and that paper won't even be actively traded, unless you are a Vulture Fund or Warren Buffet offering 35 cents on the dollar. It will be funny to look 4-5 months back, and remember the insanity of the current debt market orgy, where hundreds of companies were lining up to get their last cocktail before the bar closed. Piledriver and Brian4: Talk about a violent reversal in the COT. Small specs are about to get hosed by Da Boyz on the NDX contracts: http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/cot.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted June 28, 2003 Report Share Posted June 28, 2003 Click here for comments in stool waves Should be choppy trading for next few weeks then the final wave up which should end in late July ? 4th August. Spoon target price is between 925-955 for the final 5th wave I don?t have a target price yet. All this is based on Foolish Waves and nothing to do with Ewave. I doubt this, HIGHLY. No offense Feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted June 28, 2003 Report Share Posted June 28, 2003 Mark, I had a suspicion that the COT would suddenly turn down like that. FACIAL! The bulls are going to get bitch slapped real soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 28, 2003 Report Share Posted June 28, 2003 Hmmmm looks like the DOW parked on a trendline atm so there could be a wee bounce from here early next week. I use weekly charts for entry so I don't have confirmed short signals yet.....looking interesting though.. DOW Daily Chart http://www.signalwatch.com/markets/markets-dow.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted June 28, 2003 Report Share Posted June 28, 2003 Wow, just listened to both hours of interviews on FSO....those guys are on the ball, and are predicting a worrisome future, a must listen for all stoolies. Makes you wonder how Kudlow, Cramer and uncle George are allowed to pull off the shit they do. Just finished watching Kudlow and Cramer...new bull market , all sectors a strong buy, any pullback is a gift...yada, yada, yada...makes me wanna puke Also read the GG annual outlook ...that co is stronger than the Bastille, 240,000 oz of gold that they will not sell but will use to leverage their balance sheet to the price of gold...No DEBT...adding more weekly...get in on the trend early and never look back, imagine when the gold sector is valued like the tech sector...LMAO...there will be some extremely wealthy stoolies! just wonder if your cash will be worth anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 28, 2003 Report Share Posted June 28, 2003 Some important technical events at the close of the weeks trading. First weekly close below 20 month moving average at 978 or so. Setting up a pretty bearish candle on the monthly chart RIGHT AT 20 MA resistance. No trade over 991 and lower trade than prior lows keeps 477 in play as a target based on weekly, daily and intraday fibo wave structures. First weekly close below 983 which is the 38.2% retrace of 1974-2000 bull market move. BEARISH, BEARISH, BEARISH Scottcardiff, do you have the date for that 477 target? TIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkdoc Posted June 28, 2003 Report Share Posted June 28, 2003 Gentlestoolies, Doug Noland is up now on PruBear Coming Next Year to Madison Square Garden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted June 28, 2003 Report Share Posted June 28, 2003 Part of the reason we are "where we are" are the congenital IDIOTS who run MAJOR corporations-Note- NIKE warns today-earnings will be in the toilet, things are GRIM etc. Excuse me these are the same turds who gave an 18 yr old high school stringbean, NBA wannabe- one Lebron James what $35 Million in a shoe contract. If I was a NIKE shareholder I would want the CEO's Balls for bookends! As Gump said "stupid is as stupid does! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted June 28, 2003 Report Share Posted June 28, 2003 Tidbit... California is the 5th largest economy on the face of the Earth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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