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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 05:02 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – December 18, 2002

Here in Los Angeles, we live in the Alice in Wonderland of dating. You meet a nice, clean cut girl who works for Prudential Securities, wearing a conservative business suit, only to find out later that she has an 18” Thunderbird tattoo on her back, or some type of banyan vines on one of her ankles.

Or, you meet a “well balanced” computer chip designer from Logicon, wearing librarian glasses who says she grew up on a farm in Nebraska, only to find out she’s into Leslie LaRoche – style S & M tactics in the sack. And she sees a therapist daily.

Black is white, and white is black.

The U.S. stock market is really no different.

As expected, the markets have now entered Alice in Repo Land, where bad news is ignored, and stocks are jammed and prevented from certain collapse by the Perpetual Motion Liquidity Machine.

Is a war with Iraq imminent? Will UAL go into full liquidation in February? Conseco now has millions of used trailer homes floating around in the repo yards? Sound like the markets are ready to resume their decline?

Prepare for a massive ramp job.

How do we know that?

The market can tell us. And right now, the market is telling us that zero percent interest or some other type of gimmick is ready to be launched in the mortgage industry.

As we have seen repeatedly, the hallmark of this bear market has been the repeated surprise breakouts of some stocks which are supposed to roll over, but instead, are booster rocketed to even higher highs.

Al Green is desperate to keep the housing industry and the mortgage refinancing wave alive. He’s got something up his sleeve.

Just check out the stocks of these three mortgage companies. Looks like they are at a top right? Ready to be shorted?

Nope. I bet that this is the next “breakout” sector to squeeze the shorts. Notice the decent volume coming in on this move, even though the broad market has been working lower.

FRE, CFC, NCEN

Posted Image

Posted Image

Posted Image

Sorry, I can't get these stockcharts to post.

Where is Vesselin when you need him?[/i]

The markets are becoming untradeable and wildly unpredictable. The market timers are dazed and confused.

My new job here at Mark To Market is to give people a heads and warn them of possible sector short squeezes. Will it happen in the financials? Who knows? If it happens, we can at least Riverboat out way up to the highs at the expense of the hapless shorts.

So in the future, I’ll continue to watch for possible squeezing action.

At the same time, I’ll try to identify those slow moving, relentless sector declines that can go on for 6 – 9 months. The kind that sneak up on you. The ones which move so slow, everybody is scared to short them. Right now, that sector might be the big box retailers, which might just be getting started.

For now, I’m going to hold on to my LOW, TGT, and KSS. Every day I swear I’m going to cover them, because they look like they could explode to the upside at any moment. And the bad news fails to trigger massive selling. That also keeps the new shorts out. So they might continue to grind down, without attracting much attention.

As usual, Neely and Prechter are changing forecasts daily. One day, it’s the “Last Chance Saloon”, the next day, its “Dow 9200” into all those Fib time clusters around the January 10 – 18 timeframe. Will it be a top or a low then? Its only 3 weeks away. Can’t these guys predict which direction at least?

One day, they say gold is going to $500. The next day, the target is $200.

Who knows? Best to stay in cash now and fade whatever move is made into that timeframe.

In the meantime, we have seen massive hysteria and huge divergences of opinion in the video and gaming arena. One day, TTWO blows out its earnings. The next day, ATVI is crushed on a warning. Leslie LaRoche on PreMarket this morning was whipping her chains claiming that the “selling was overdone” and that the weakness was due to product glitches, not a shortage of X-Box gamer addicts.

Maria was screaching and screaming at the open, noting “weakness in tech and financials”. Wasn’t it just two days ago she said there was “bargain hunting in tech and financials?”

Well Maria, which is it?

Maria is also confused. You guys notice the radical increase in the number of grey hairs? And what happened to those spectacular breasts? Was a reduction required by the NBC execs?

What happened to Su Keenan on Bloomberg? Her face seems to be more stretched every day. Multiple lines on her face because of all the market confusion.

Companies are also confused.

Hollywood warns, but Blockbuster re-affirms its guidance. Or was it the other way around? Or was it Movie Gallery? Did I forget that one? Buy the stronger stock? Or short the weaker one? Who knows?

Dow is at 8400. What happened? Weren’t we at 8600 only a few days ago? What happened to that monster move on Monday? What happened to all those longs? Are they still holding?

The market appears to be in a state of total confusion, nobody knows where its going. Buddha observes:

“Note the wild ass blurbs back and forth going on in the video gaming pits. The anal cysts trying to muscle this sector should just be put down at the local vets. How many different takes have we had shot out of the back end of these Houses over the last week alone regarding the Ninetendo crowd? ERTS, TTWO, etc. ad nauseum. Shows the incredible level of fear now governing the action. They don't even bother with subtlety anymore, they wouldn't even hire Goebbels to handle their PR. Why waste your time lying when its so obvious now to everyone that they are just creating figures out of thin air? Why not just go over some old maps of Ghengis Khan's conquest of South China and begin from there?”

The Matrix Control Room Operators were busy pushing the tape by issuing the usual predictions of a 2003 recovery:

S&P sees recovery for markets in 2003 by Allen Wan Standard & Poor's believes that 2003 will be a year of recovery for the U.S. markets, reversing what is shaping up to be a third consecutive year of decline for the S&P 500. S&P is expecting a strong finish to the current year, and feels optimistic that the market is poised for a turnaround in 2003. It also sees strong sector momentum in consumer staples, energy, and financial sectors as the current year comes to a close. "Standard & Poor's believes that these sectors provide investors with the best exposure to a recovery in both the economy and corporate earnings," said Sam Stovall, Standard & Poor's chief investment strategist.

Who is Sam Stovall?

How much is he paid?

How does S & P get paid? Same way that Moody’s and Fitch are paid by their own constituents?

Tony Soprano could not have dreamed up a racket as good as this one. Impervious to public scorn and derision.

Just like Sandy Weill, let off yesterday with a minor slap on the wrist.

Just like Larry Ellison, who has exercised over $700 million in stock options at the expense of Joe Sixpack, whose tiny 500 shares of ORCL are no match for the billions of shares of ORCL stock still floating around in the Arena.

What recovery is Stovall talking about? Recovery from what?

Recovery from overconsumption?

Recovery from overindebtedness?

Recovery from rampant Wall Street bullishness?

What happened last year? And the year before that?

Back in the year 2000, prior to the Alice in Repo Land era, there was fear of a possible “mild recession” and “slowdown in retail spending”. The stock market acted normally back then, when bad news was generally sold. The market finally ground down to some lows around October, based on a “mild” recession.

Now we are faced with a more difficult recession, yet the market refuses to discount it. Let me illustrate the difference in prices of some housing bubble retailers between two “bottoms”:

2000 Bottom: October 15, 2000
2002 Bottom: October 15, 2002

LOW
2000 Bottom: $18
2002 Bottom: $37
Now: $38

WSM
2000 Bottom: $8
2002 Bottom: $22
Now: $28

BBBY
2000 Bottom: $17
2002 Bottom: $29
Now: $33

So it appears that these stocks are projecting a “return of the consumer” in the year 2003, with little or no downside risk in their spending for the house.

Confused?

You should be.

It’s the design of the Matrix to keep all participants dazed and bewildered, lest they obtain some mental clarity of how the Matrix Agents have been systematically raping the Participants.

Here’s the latest background check on the newest installed Chief Agent as described by our Color Commentator:

“Our new King of PigMen appointee John W. Snow, slated to head up Troughing operations as the Secretary of the Treasury and other Slop has an interesting retirement package going. $2.5 million a year guaranteed penison from CSX until he dies based on 44 years of work even though he only logged in for 25 years. Also this Warthog's pension in addition is based on the value of 250,000 shares of the company that was gifted to him by the board. Of course what all the piglets are told is that this 'public servant' is leaving a lucrative job to take a lowly $160,000 a year gig.”

“Though the shares of CSX have fallen 60% since their ‘97 high, Snow’s compensation has risen steadily each year from $6 million in ‘97 to a measley $11 million and ‘out-at- the-top’ this year. Meanwhile the company is being sued by 41 low-level retirees who are being deprived of their life insurance benefits. Who said the days of the robber barons died with the 19th Century? We are cleaning out the filth from the O'Neill pen to move in a new Sow. Napolean the Pig would be proud. They are after all, the smartest and craftiest animals on the Farm.”

…………………..

Position Summary:



We are 44% short, 16% long, 29% cash.

Half Short:

LOW at $42
KSS at $66
INTU at $53
C at $38
TGT at $34
MBI at $50

Quarter Short:

FRE at $68
CFC at $49
KBH at $49
LEN at $56
TOL at $27
BBBY at $35
COCO at $40

Half Long:

BGO at $1.31
HL at $4.10
PAAS at $5
DROOY at $3.35
GG at $10
GLG at $9
MDG at $16
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#2 GregFokker

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 05:11 PM

Can there be any doubt that 100 years hence, people will look back on the modus operandi of Da Boyz and shake their heads in wonder? The whole thing will have been either legislated out of existence, or the sheeple will have completely given up and refused to participate further.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#3 roidrage

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 05:18 PM

At the same time, I’ll try to identify those slow moving, relentless sector declines that can go on for 6 – 9 months. The kind that sneak up on you. The ones which move so slow, everybody is scared to short them. Right now, that sector might be the big box retailers, which might just be getting started.

How does a trader keep from getting ground down with interest charges, then, paid to the matrix, while Al gentles the pigs down? Rhetorical.

As for big box, BBBY in suburban illadelph was empty two weekends ago. TGT in urban illadelph has traffic, but the shoppers' carts are nearly empty, and the returns line is out into the aisles.

rr

#4 roidrage

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 05:19 PM

I hope it doesn't take 100 years!

rr

#5 Hypertiger

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 05:40 PM

Next year is when the fun really begins... The entire world economic system is bankrupt. Game over. The system is dying in a fit of agony... 2003-2004 is flatline Beep......... beep...................... beep....................... beeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee....Click
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#6 phatbubble

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 05:48 PM

Can there be any doubt that 100 years hence, people will look back on the modus operandi of Da Boyz and shake their heads in wonder? The whole thing will have been either legislated out of existence, or the sheeple will have completely given up and refused to participate further.

....or they will have brought the whole thing down in a spectacular Total Collapse, after which something quite different will emerge. i believe that hyper maintains that this ending is an inherent structural feature.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#7 Jorma

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 05:54 PM

Can there be any doubt that 100 years hence, people will look back on the modus operandi of Da Boyz and shake their heads in wonder? The whole thing will have been either legislated out of existence, or the sheeple will have completely given up and refused to participate further.

Back in the 80's there was a genre of movie, Blade Runner being the prototype, with many others still mineing the vision, where the future was envisioned as a sort of weird combination of two level society with the all knowing corporate government connected elite allowing a kind of anarchy below. Teeming cities filled with freaks scrambling for scraps under geaming towers.

This vision, a style often called post apocolyptic, has been totally internalized by most Americans and other first worlders. So in answer to the question about 100 years from now I am drawn to the vison not of 'Da Boys' having fallen but rather of them emerging victorious. This marking the start of an age not the end of one.

I said vision. It is just a daydream. Not a prediction. Just an observation.

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
William Eastlake 'The Bamboo Bed'

Change you can suspend your disbelief in.
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The Treasury

could burn down

We jammin still

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#8 roidrage

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:00 PM

Jorma: Deep.

rr

#9 GregFokker

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:01 PM

I know, Jorma, and hear you loud and clear. My highschool brutalized me at the age of 14 by including Orwell's 1984 on the required reading list. I read it several times until the age of 22 or 23, at which time I decided that I shouldn't have been exposed to that at such a young age. What's the solution for those of us down here? Is there one? Hold gold? I'm wrestling with it now, every day, as I try to decide how I feel about maybe being a daddy one day. Well, no dilemma so far... need to find a date first :P

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#10 DrStool

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:29 PM

To post charts from stockcharts.com, or any other site which generates charts dynamically, use the IMG button. Paste the url to the chart in the box and add the .gif extension to the end of the url.

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#11 DrStool

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:32 PM

Hey roid- Go-o-o-o-o IGGLES!!!!!

If your portfolio has you feeling irregular, for fast, long lasting relief, take a subscribatory. And support your local Stool!

#12 Metamucil

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:45 PM

Mark, you should visit the local LA county ER and see how some people pass away. Sometimes, it is the most agonizing thing to watch; the writhing, screaming, defecating, urinating, convulsing etc., are somewhat sobering...to say the least.


This POS market is going to hell....guaranteed. How many players will be left standing is another story. That's why I follow Doc's Cmaps so closely. They keep me out of trouble.
This is a marathon.

Step back; these fibo charts are certainly not Hurst, but serve the purpose of illustration. Prechter and Hogberg (?sp) need electroconvulsive therapy.

FRE........sayonara.
monthly


SPX........sayonara
monthly


NDX........adios
monthly


As if we need confirmation.....




PileDriver, take it from here............you have all the evidence...and more.
"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#13 midnite lightning

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:49 PM

Down the tube they go!

If they don’t jam it the next two days, this thing is in real trouble.

I get the feeling they might sell the sh#t out of the market before Christmas. Nobody nows what kind of presents we will get. Everybody is getting paranoid.

This pig just wants to go down and down even with all the jamming.

Just when you think it is going to launch more bad news. You can bet their will be more bad news, more bankruptcies, more scandals, more hype just around the corner.

When the new year comes, I am sure saddamn will get his ass kicked something fierce which will cause even more problems and the loons will be out in full force to retaliate. This will add a whole new twist to this mess. Mixed with the above, we are headed for some serious sh#t.

I will stay short. No I am not a midget.

Mercy man,

Come out, come out, I see you lurking. I would love to hear what you have come up with! You must be getting ready for the bbq of the century!

CYA

#14 machinehead

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 06:52 PM

There's one final frontier of securitization: capitalizing the value of human labor. Yes, I'm talking about indentured servitude, a great but forgotten 18th century financial innovation which helped build America.

Think of it: in return for getting your car and credit cards paid off, you spend a brief seven years with an e-collar around your ankle, making a thousand telemarketing calls a day. What could be easier? Arbeit macht frei.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

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Posted 18 December 2002 - 07:03 PM

Gold @ $346! It took out the previous high without as much as a hesitation. How about RGLD! Exsqueeze me but it hardly moved despite the POG up over $10. Whoever was shorting RGLD is phuked if the contract is bid over $345 when trading resumes tomorrow! I made sure to load up! Like taking candy off a kid. :P Who knows how far this rally may take us but I wouldn't be surprised to see a massive short squeeze on some of the miners tomorrow. B)





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