Hanky Posted May 13, 2006 Author Report Share Posted May 13, 2006 I just want to clarify that I am not "calling" a 4 year cycle top YET. Just that this is the first time I have seen my indicators show the potential for a more sustained sell off since last OCT when the HOM really whipsawed quickly from sell to buy. The HOM sell earlier last year was also one that I more strongly thought was a potential 4-yr cycle top. I was curious and commented that if that was the TOP it would confirm that we were in a vicious secular bear market since there was little bullish translation even with the gargantuon effort of the FED this last cycle. Anyway that did not happen and it is why I am still thinking we may not have too bad a decline(not take out 2002 lows by any means) and then another good cyclical bull late 2006-2008. So currently a lot more has to happen technically for me to begin to claim the top is in. Mr. Bressart has compiled a lot of stats on the 4-year cycle and one that troubled me last year when evidence began to build for a top early in the year was that the majority of tops occur within 8 months of the bottom, IOW, strong right (bullish) translation has existed in bull AND bear markets. The primary skew instigator being the FED as it pours on to stimulate us out of 4 yr cycle bottoms that usually are closely accompanied by recessions. Bottoms are extremely consistant and always have happened OCT-NOV every 4 years. SO at least now we are statistically in the very high probability topping window timewise. HANK We still are on very long term BUY signals here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abby Justa Colon Posted May 14, 2006 Report Share Posted May 14, 2006 Thanks for the update, Hank. The system I use to trade by is very short term oriented. I rarely trade a position for more than a few days to a week at best. On Friday, I had some weak buy signals for the Q's in the afternoon. Too weak to trade but if they turn up early next week I'll jump in for a bounce trade. Longer term its anyones guess...but I do favor your senario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted May 19, 2006 Author Report Share Posted May 19, 2006 TODAY 5-18-2006 my VLT(very long term) indicator for the SP500 issued a SELL signal after a long run on BUY since 3-21-2003 This is quickly turning into the MOST BEARISH technical scenario I have witnessed since the 2000 big top. Still the ST indicators are keeping me out due to the potential for a sharp Dover Sole bounce...I now am quite certain there will be some good short trades between now and October and the 1987 1x1 would be the first downside target (1200) Just need to be patient and let the system tell me when the ST probabilities are favorable. HANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted June 1, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 1, 2006 HOM signaled a BUY today. CT signaled a BUY today. Will be placing long QQQQ order at open with positive futures otherwise will wait 30-60 minutes if futures are down... HANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abby Justa Colon Posted June 1, 2006 Report Share Posted June 1, 2006 HOM signaled a BUY today.CT signaled a BUY today. Will be placing long QQQQ order at open with positive futures otherwise will wait 30-60 minutes if futures are down... HANK <{POST_SNAPBACK}> Thanks hank....Look to be in lock step..I got a prelim buy for the Q's on 5/30 with a confirm on 5/31. Looks good for now...lets see how far it can run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted June 3, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 3, 2006 Weekend Update: CT = BUY HOM = BUY We entered long QQQQ at 39.1 on Thursday. TNX looks like it may go down now into the 40 week cycle low... After that will be interest-ing to see how high rates go as the cycle may accelerate this now well established LT uptrend. 5.5% is critical in my analysis HANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted June 8, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 8, 2006 CT = CASH HOM = BUY Closing our QQQQ position at a loss at the open today:angry: CT now slightly in the red for the year -0.4% HANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted June 11, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 11, 2006 Weekend Update: CT = CASH HOM = SELL HOM BUY at 1.1% loss here...now back to SELL. I see a lot of expectations of an Dover Sole rally and this being a "good bottom" yet so I don't think it is. Gold is due for a larger move up in here and I think we are about to see Crude run up and I still think we see 80 at least this year. Interest rates are on the tear and this little dip I think is just acknowledging the usual clockwork-like 40 week low and retesting 5.0 support. 5.5 will be the critical level to watch as they again move up This would be the biggest negative for the broad markets and keep them suppressed. Then again a surprising longer term reversal would change it all but so far I see no technical signs this is about to happen. HANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted June 17, 2006 Author Report Share Posted June 17, 2006 Weekend Update: CT = CASH HOM = SELL Signals Unchanged Signals gyrating all over the place have kept us out of trying any short term trades. The HOM has even been whipsawed in here with a small loss on the last BUY signal. But overall things indicate a very weak, fragile market that is definitely in an IT DOWNTREND. Currently it is precisely at prior relative levels from which over the past few years miraculously bullish stick jams kicked in raising the market to new highs. However this time in addition to my current bearish technical readings: -In the seasonally unfavorable period May-Nov -Well within the window that declines into 4 year cycle lows occur (due this Fall) -VLT has issued it's first SELL since the 2002 lows There are two critical supportive convergences at 1200 and then 1000. These are where the major 1987 Gann lines reside along with half high levels, and of course the even 1000 number. It will be interesting to see if we get a typical ugly sharp free fall to 1000 but first 1200 has to give. HANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abby Justa Colon Posted June 19, 2006 Report Share Posted June 19, 2006 Thanks for the update Hank...nice chart.. The ISE Sentiment Index hit a 52 week low on Friday. Its 50-day moving average now stands at 144. According to Edward Levi of Citigroup a reading of near 145 or below is a buy signal. Near 200 or above a sell signal. It rarely throws off buy or sell signals (maybe one or two a year at best) but I don't know if I'm totaly sold on it. Possible summer rally with light volume? The trend remains pointing down...so right now I will still look at rallies as shorting opps. http://www.iseoptions.com/marketplace/stat...ment_index.asp# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted July 15, 2006 Author Report Share Posted July 15, 2006 Cube Trader Update: CT remains in CASH HOM remains on a SELL with a nice gain so far The markets have been spooky lately with many timing systems of all time frames getting whipsawed. I talked to friends that subscribe to various timing services and it has been a rough past few months for many. Anyway my two systems have avoided major losses, the CT by just keeping us out of trying anything shorter term and the longer term HOM succeeded in spotting this latest downtrend early after a small whipsaw long trade loss and now is sitting nicely in the black. I continue to maintain the view that the 4 year top is in and we are going to continue to go down into the 4-year low this OCT-NOV Below: after a large divergent triple top, we now have a major breakdown of support on the NASDAQ 100. HANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted August 26, 2006 Author Report Share Posted August 26, 2006 Cube Trader Weekend Review: Many indications have stregthened this past week and we are a hair away from a BUY on CT and HOM. A fresh primary buy signal fired on the VLT much to my surprise last week But for now: CT = CASH HOM = SELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted September 9, 2006 Author Report Share Posted September 9, 2006 CT = CASH HOM = SELL Signals continue extremely mixed and irratic and telling us not to take any positions...heading for the dullest trading year yet HANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abby Justa Colon Posted September 13, 2006 Report Share Posted September 13, 2006 Tanks for the update Hank....yep tough market indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hanky Posted September 17, 2006 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2006 Weekend Update: CT = CASH HOM = SELL No change but I have noted quite a decline in my indicators this week... Divergent double top forming and now we go down into 4 yr cycle low is my call with a top here this week or next at the latest. Hoping this week sees a continued deterioration and short trading opportunity that puts us in the black this year (Also looks like PM will join the decline if it does indeed materialize) HANK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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