Hypertiger Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 Dear God is the only thought that came to mind when reading the latest Contrary Investor monthly article. First look at this graph. It is one most of us have seen and are familiar with. On the surface it's bad enough. Now read this and give it a minute to sink in. So looking at the spike in the 1930's, you need to understand the spike was caused not by adding debt but by a collapsing GDP. Now fast forward to today. Want to even speculate what that graph will look like when GDP goes down? Contrary Investor - February The one in the 30's was constructed of domestic consumption debt built up over 16 years which collapsed when the FED stopped supporting the minor bubbles that were created at the time...minor because like he says GDP collapsed causing the credit bubble to appear bigger than it was...The cause was the collapse in debt inflation... The current credit bubble has been built over a period of 45+ years and is 4 times as large as the previous one but 6-8 times as large if you account for the GDP effect and the fact that most of that is from external consumption...It is beyond doom and gloom...When we pass maximum potential 45 years of debt deflationary potential will flood out like a burst DAM and nothing will stop it... The only miracle is the time we have left from now until that day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 breaking news: Preliminary field test on substance found in Senate office building indicates presence of biological agent ricin, Homeland Security official says. Details soon. developing Ricin Letter Found In Anti-Gay Senate Leader's Mail by Paul Johnson 365Gay.com Newscenter Washington Bureau Chief Posted: February 2, 2004 8:50 p.m. ET (Washington, D.C.)? A letter showing traces of the deadly chemical ricin was found Monday night n the mail room of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.?? The biological agent was discovered in a test given all mail going into the senator's mail room.? The "field test" is not conclusive. Capitol Police put the letter in a biohazard container and have sent it to the FBI lab for further study. Some field tests that showed mail was contaminated with other chemicals in the past were later disproved by the FBI.? Neither the senator nor his staff are said to have come in contact with the envelope. http://www.365gay.com/newscon04/02/020204fristRicin.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 The current credit bubble has been built over a period of 45+ years and is 4 times as large as the previous one but 6-8 times as large if you account for the GDP effect and the fact that most of that is from external consumption...It is beyond doom and gloom...When we pass maximum potential 45 years of debt deflationary potential will flood out like a burst DAM and nothing will stop it... Hypertiger: Note that the graph is only good through the 3rd QTR 2003. After 4th QTR and January 2004, no doubt that that line is now going completely vertical. Beyond parabolic...... Total, unmitigated Panic Acceleration in the Atomic Particle Accelerator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 Futures are coming down like fingernails on a blackboard but they are coming down below fair value-nice, nice, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 You may have read the story already But Halliburton Big swinging Dicks old Company is under fire again-they were charging the Goobermint for 42,000 meals a day and actually serving only 18,000. Just good ol boyz at the trough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silky_Xlax Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 I just find it amazing that over a week ago those targets where being discussed. Well before the decline started and here we are with a decline of 33 points for a possible wave 1 down. then we rally to the high today at 1143. 33 x 1.618 = 53 (rounding here) 1143- 53= 1090.I find that amazing! I will be back in a bit. This from Mark Arbeter of S&P - "The streak of nine straight weeks of higher closes for the S&P 500 index finally came to end last week, and we believe that a long overdue consolidation or pullback has commenced. It is our opinion that the consolidation or trading range for the "500" will be bounded by 1,080 on the downside and 1,155 on the upside -- and will last for two to five months." Sounds close to your target, TE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 This from Mark Arbeter of S&P - "The streak of nine straight weeks of higher closes for the S&P 500 index finally came to end last week, and we believe that a long overdue consolidation or pullback has commenced. It is our opinion that the consolidation or trading range for the "500" will be bounded by 1,080 on the downside and 1,155 on the upside -- and will last for two to five months." Sounds close to your target, TE... I could see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 Japan tried to rally got to minus 170 and failed appraoching minus 200 again-Uncle Buck getting smucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 last wed and today around 3pm Liquidity went out the window bagholders have no ideal how much money MF dont have wed amerturd and other borkers seized up history will be rewrote on the dnside speed imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 26,000 apply before they stop taking applications! Mercedes-Benz is updating its job applications for expanded production at its giant plant in Vance. The auto manufacturer will need 1600 new workers this year as it completes doubling capacity to make M-Class sport utility vehicles and the GST roadster. The previous state-administered hiring process for those jobs was closed after 26,000 applications were received in 2001. http://www.waff.com/Global/story.asp?S=1626059 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Icky Twerp Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 I don't know. These deficit numbers, and the Treasury note auction sizes scare the hell out of me. I think the moves we've seen in the market last week and today, are the earth beginning to shake as Planet Shit heads toward us. Haven't we known about the deficit for a while? Haven't we known about the auction for a while? My Good DOktor, is this some intestinal rumbling rather than a TA symptom giving you this queasiness, like the front wheels on your car sliding on an ice patch? Talk to us. Tell us about it. Is there some sub-concious indicator in the CMAPs you half-see? I feel it too, but I BEEN feelin' it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 TEOTWAWKI http://www.goexcelglobal.com/images/endworld.wav Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 I will post the lyrics. Great song. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 That?s great, it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, an aeroplane - Lenny bruce is not afraid. eye of a hurricane, listen to yourself churn - World serves it?s own needs, don?t misserve your own needs. feed it up a knock, Speed, grunt no, strength no. ladder structure clatter with fear of height, Down height. wire in a fire, represent the seven games in a government for Hire and a combat site. left her, wasn?t coming in a hurry with the furies Breathing down your neck. team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered Crop. look at that low plane! fine then. uh oh, overflow, population, Common group, but it?ll do. save yourself, serve yourself. world serves its Own needs, listen to your heart bleed. tell me with the rapture and the Reverent in the right - right. you vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright Light, feeling pretty psyched. It?s the end of the world as we know it. It?s the end of the world as we know it. It?s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine. Six o?clock - tv hour. don?t get caught in foreign tower. slash and burn, Return, listen to yourself churn. lock him in uniform and book burning, Blood letting. every motive escalate. automotive incinerate. light a candle, Light a motive. step down, step down. watch a heel crush, crush. uh oh, This means no fear - cavalier. renegade and steer clear! a tournament, A tournament, a tournament of lies. offer me solutions, offer me alternatives And I decline. It?s the end of the world as we know it. It?s the end of the world as we know it. It?s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine. The other night I tripped a nice continental drift divide. mount st. edelite. Leonard bernstein. leonid breshnev, lenny bruce and lester bangs. Birthday party, cheesecake, jelly bean, boom! you symbiotic, patriotic, Slam, but neck, right? right. It?s the end of the world as we know it. It?s the end of the world as we know it. It?s the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine...fine... (it?s time I had some time alone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted February 3, 2004 Report Share Posted February 3, 2004 TEOTWAWKI http://www.goexcelglobal.com/images/endworld.wav How do I do that? Thats great! A whole song. Show me PLEASE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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