Lock Limit Down Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Panic buying since the open Look at the trin HGX on fire Money over brains rules the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 From a Saudi business school professor in Jeddah: The most likely trigger for a reversal in foreign investment is the falling purchasing power of the dollar, especially in the market for oil. These facts, combined with the skyrocketing, over 20 percent annual growth in "Super Money," mean investors must be on the lookout for rising commodity prices and higher interest rates. Where US Interest Rates and Inflation Are Heading Tres mauvais. The big, dumb vendors weren't supposed to catch on so quickly to our polished sleight-of-hand. What are we gonna do, Al? Huh? Huh? Maybe the US $ is already in the process of being rejected by OPEC - they just haven't announed it yet. The article mentioned pretty much hits the mark - but I think the effect on foreigners pumping up the US money supply is not as signficant as stated there. Yes, the professor may have misstated that. The effect of financing the U.S. current deficit is on the foreigners' money supplies. The most recent Federal Reserve H.4.1 release shows that the Fed has an $804 billion balance sheet. Off-budget, though, is a 50% larger $1.256 trillion held in custody for foreign central banks. This is not counted as part of the U.S. money supply, but it's definitely part of foreign money supplies (listed under foreign exchange reserves). The custody account has been growing at an incredible 34% annual rate, as shown by the annual change: http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ This huge reservoir of foreign purchasing power is available to drive up the price of dollar-denominated internationally-traded goods, particularly Crude Earl. What's not clear to me is who's in the driver's seat -- whether the U.S. drives the custody account growth with its deficit financing -- or the foreigners, who decide how much of the deficit to kick back into Treasury and Agency debt in the custody account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearHugs Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Volume on the light side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Today will be very telling as to how many shorts are left.. Can anybody EVER imagine the matrix allowing this kind of action on the downside seen since 1530 Friday. UB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Opening now till 15 past the hour-! Helmets on, Buckle up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted August 16, 2004 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 From a Saudi business school professor in Jeddah: The most likely trigger for a reversal in foreign investment is the falling purchasing power of the dollar, especially in the market for oil. These facts, combined with the skyrocketing, over 20 percent annual growth in "Super Money," mean investors must be on the lookout for rising commodity prices and higher interest rates. Where US Interest Rates and Inflation Are Heading Tres mauvais. The big, dumb vendors weren't supposed to catch on so quickly to our polished sleight-of-hand. What are we gonna do, Al? Huh? Huh? Maybe the US $ is already in the process of being rejected by OPEC - they just haven't announed it yet. The article mentioned pretty much hits the mark - but I think the effect on foreigners pumping up the US money supply is not as signficant as stated there. Yes, the professor may have misstated that. The effect of financing the U.S. current deficit is on the foreigners' money supplies. The most recent Federal Reserve H.4.1 release shows that the Fed has an $804 billion balance sheet. Off-budget, though, is a 50% larger $1.256 trillion held in custody for foreign central banks. This is not counted as part of the U.S. money supply, but it's definitely part of foreign money supplies (listed under foreign exchange reserves). The custody account has been growing at an incredible 34% annual rate, as shown by the annual change: http://federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ This huge reservoir of foreign purchasing power is available to drive up the price of dollar-denominated internationally-traded goods, particularly Crude Earl. What's not clear to me is who's in the driver's seat -- whether the U.S. drives the custody account growth with its deficit financing -- or the foreigners, who decide how much of the deficit to kick back into Treasury and Agency debt in the custody account. For the most part I think that CBs are reactive - especially Asian central banks whose primary motivation to buy US$'s appears to be a stabilized exchange rate. As the US trade deficit vis-a-vis OPEC expands, their willingness to stabilze their exchange rates becomes more important. However they have less problems dealing with exchange rates - mainly because of a lack of an effective forex exchange market for their currencies. The Sauds and a few other Arabian peninsula OPEC members may be the last countries buying US$s for political reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 1072 to 1075 is critical resistance failure here and we unravel fast. Big move coming Blast Shields up may the force be with us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mars Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 "Good day... Well, I left you all on Friday with the thought that the Trade Deficit would be bad... That was not giving it the credit it deserved! The Trade Deficit for June wasn't just bad it was AWFUL! The Deficit soared to $55.8 Billion from a previously revised $46.8 Billion... OUCH! That's going to leave a mark! " From Everbank's Chuck Butler's newsletter: The Daily Pfennig. You can get these on The Daily Reckoning site (below Mogambo's citation) or by going to http://www.everbank.com/main.asp?affid=eb and signing up. Provides a great short summary of the news of the day from a forex standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 CNN runs the same Foundation for a Better Life commercials almost nonstop for weeks on end. Just who are these foundation people? Foundation for a better life: more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Reuters: Shiiite miltia have set an oil well on fire in Southern Iraq Aha! That would explain it! New Olympic world record for repairing blown-up oil wells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 I wouldnt stand in front of this thing if they held a gun to my head. This will be a wire to wire day Count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucid and confused Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 CNN runs the same Foundation for a Better Life commercials almost nonstop for weeks on end. Just who are these foundation people? Foundation for a better life: more Kinda sums it all up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 I wouldnt stand in front of this thing if they held a gun to my head.This will be a wire to wire day Count on it. Sure is looking that way. The bushman is speaking on how good things are and how much he is doing for Americans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted August 16, 2004 Report Share Posted August 16, 2004 Hopefully my last post was a sure sign of the top for this move. Seriously I think Ill sit this week out. Lots of writers underwater. Wouldnt surprise me to see all kinds of upgrades and spin to rescue the lowlifes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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