TheDeepBlueSea Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 Was that tongue in cheek? 12 to 18 months minimum for currency changes to affect trade flows significantly. Besides, China and other places have such a gigantic cost advantages that to start reversing the manufacturing drain might take a 50% or more drop in the dollar. China has the yuan pegged to the US dollar. About 8 to 1. As the US $ devaluates, so does the Chinese yuan in lockstep. No competative currency advantage to the US. Someone post an excellent article on IDS today. T(h)anks. Here's a repost: Asia, it's $ reserves and the coming $ crisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 I don't think it was this easy in Feb.-Mar. 2000 This is probably as good as it gets for stock market investing. I don't know...those days were pretty damn easy. One striking similarity to those days: Stocks are sold off on dissapointing earnings reports and then bouncing hard. I used to make some money that way during the halcyon days of tech. CSCO & BRCD couldn't be denied. I expect the same for DELL next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 greg: agree. Perhaps buy high and sell low? perhaps buy high, sell higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 Scott-Money.net has a Heat Map subscription service that basically does what you want-I believe you can get a 7 day trial of it-check it out. Piles you and I disagree for the first time in a long while, I think this thing is rolling over right now, internally it's labouring hard and going nowhere, Nazy which led the way up looks like it will lead the way down. It was pinned today for op/ex soon as they let her go in the last 1/2 hour she wouldn.t jump start and slowly rolled over. Earnings are all but over now we trade on funnymentals and there aren't any plus downgrades start. Mwh and others have done a great job pointing out where the relative VIX is. Plus there are no shorts to fuel a rally. This will come quickly and end very badly.-Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackbelt Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 Forecasting is a losers game. I guess, then, I'm a loser Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted May 16, 2003 Author Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 More evidence that the Stock Market Mania never really died. Pension Plans are now issuing bonds to raise borrowed money to "catch up" by Riverboating tech stocks. From EWI: To have money and put it in the stock market is risky. To borrow money and put it in the stock market is ... riskier. But how do you describe the risk if: 1) Your retirement fund has declined in the three-year bear market 2) You then go borrow money 3) You put the borrowed money in the stock market, because 4) You hope the borrowed money will get back the original retirement fund losses. This crosses the line from risk to recklessness with both feet, but -- you guessed it -- there's more. Imagine the above scenario if you're responsible for someone else's retirement fund, and if you borrow the money at a six percent interest rate. Now multiply the scenario by many thousands (perhaps millions) of people, and you've got yourself something called "pension obligation bonds." States and municipalities have been issuing these bonds, and they will likely be issuing lots more of them. According to figures in a Bloomberg story, public pension funds have an "equity allocation" close to 50%. The total amount in these funds was some $2.3 billion in 2000; now that figure has likely fallen below $2 billion. One estimate says a "record 79% of U.S. public pension plans are underfunded." The six percent interest rate I mentioned above is not overstated; that's the approximate going rate for this sort of debt. So let's do some rocket science: Are you better or worse off if the debt money that goes into the stock market scores a five percent gain? How about a 10% loss? And the investors holding those bond instruments? They think they don't have to worry about the "better or worse off" question. After all, they hold a government obligation. Their principle and interest payments are secure. Right? Wrong. We have yet to see the worst effects of the mania psychology, because that psychology is still going strong. The people who think otherwise are the ones holding pension obligation bonds. No wonder the "smart money commercials" have been long the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 Hey Deep Blue Sea, Where are you from? RE WOW...i shorted them from $10 all the way to $13.00 they are a good defensive play but they might be a short soon,building way too many supermarkets,esp in QLD,4 major stores with 5klm of each other on the Sunny Coast..... Toronto, Canada. Thanks for the info. Sounds like they're starting to compete with themselves for customers. Hmmmm ... <_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 My two cents FWIW...lots of charts showing breakdowns last two days out of rising wedgies including the COMP and the TRANNIES..Im still MEGA SHORT and a believer...will they try and jam this thing to the neckline ...wouldnt suprise me...bottom line is this is one sick economy and sooner or later this casino is goin bust...only good thing about askjeeves and other heatmappers is they are leaving huge gaps in their wake and we all know what that means...PS check that window on iBM in the mid 50's...sleeping comfortably this weekend, the end is near..PS MXIM was a gift short @ 41.5, headed to zero. Have a good weekend Stoolies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brisbane Bear Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 Deep Blue Sea what connection do you have with OZ? Just to qualify my remarks re WOW....they are a very good company,very well managed,good defensive play in tough times but expensive by standards. I shorted them only because of valuation. Just recently lost a senior manager who was being groomed for the top job,but only mildly surprised the market at the time . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 Plus there are no shorts to fuel a rally. Can I ask how we know this? I'm not calling you a liar, you liar. I'm just, umm, sorta desperately looking for little twigs to grasp to. Pension Plans are now issuing bonds to raise borrowed money to "catch up" by Riverboating tech stocks. "The horror... the horror...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 Windy, if we could just convince the pension boyz to buy GOLD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 We are soo overvalued that I just had to play a doors song. :grin: WHEN THE MUSIC'S OVER Yeah, c'mon When the music's over When the music's over, yeah When the music's over Turn out the lights Turn out the lights Turn out the lights, yeah When the music's over When the music's over When the music's over Turn out the lights Turn out the lights Turn out the lights For the music is your special friend Dance on fire as it intends Music is your only friend Until the end Until the end Until the end Cancel my subscription to the Resurrection Send my credentials to the House of Detention I got some friends inside The face in the mirror won't stop The girl in the window won't drop A feast of friends "Alive!" she cried Waitin' for me Outside! Before I sink Into the big sleep I want to hear I want to hear The scream of the butterfly Come back, baby Back into my arm We're gettin' tired of hangin' around Waitin' around with our heads to the ground I hear a very gentle sound Very near yet very far Very soft, yet, very clear Come today, come today What have they done to the earth? What have they done to our fair sister? Ravaged and plundered and ripped her and bit her Stuck her with knives in the side of the dawn And tied her with fences and dragged her down I hear a very gentle sound With your ear down to the ground We want the world and we want it... We want the world and we want it... Now Now? NOW! Persian night, babe See the light, babe Save us! Jesus! Save us! So when the music's over When the music's over, yeah When the music's over Turn out the lights Turn out the lights Turn out the lights Well the music is your special friend Dance on fire as it intends Music is your only friend Until the end Until the end Until the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 In the Fry Day Nite Quickie Edition of your Weak End Anals Doc presents the little known 19th Precept of Stock Proctology. Read all about it now! And lurkers, if I may say so myself, learning of the Little Known 19th Precept alone is worth the low low, insanely low, ridiculously low, absurdly low, price of $19.29 for 63 issues, that's right, a full 3 months! Now I ask you, how can you go wrong! Gain ontray today! Do I sound desperate? :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 we're going higher next week...uptrend not over yet. .....it depends on what happens when it happens, in the meantime I'm slowly turning coin. Forecasting is a losers game. Ar Ya! PD, U R Forecasting too Trading is a confidence game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted May 16, 2003 Report Share Posted May 16, 2003 Doc, I see yesterdays comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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