wndysrf Posted January 17, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Sweefraapp: DOUBLEDOUBLE My guess is that we have a parallel candle next to today's on Tuesday. Then another gap down. The reverse image of the October lows. Double Breakaway gaps from the "Most Advertised Double Bottom" followed by: Double Downside gaps from the "Hope Hysteria Top" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Talk about irony...taking a two day trip this week with the family to THE GREAT BEAR LODGE indoor water theme park...hope they have Crapvision and internet access...lol ...DOC, the grizzly roar on their website has nothin on stoolville! TRADE SAFE ALL, RYVNX up nicely today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 17, 2003 Report Share Posted January 17, 2003 Summoner my man and END-the 950 BOYZ are allll over it! I said last nite NO RALLY! This is 3rd wave down-look beyond the market-every piece of news, every release-is worse than expected-typical behavior at the point of recognition-all the chickens come home to roost. Budda is right- this is the time the dippers and the black box boyz get deepfried and put thru a sieve-they will keep piling into the dips (because they have been trained like Pavlov's DOGS) until they are totally ruined-right now they are a BEAR'S best friend. Look at the QQV-it went down today -no FEAR in NAZQUACK-well they better used to triple digits real quick! They put some lipstick and a new dress on the PIG near the close but it didn't last too many people have figured out it's really Dick Grasso under the lipstick and the wig. The housing numbers were shocking if you ignored the spin and actually read the report- it's time to short-CTX, LEN, FNM and Pulte-the housing BOOM is on the SLED DOWN. I see END is being prudent thinking there could be a small bounce Tuesday and I think he'd agree if there is one it will be small-3rd waves down are relentless and pause only long enough to bring the dippers in to get fried again-the bottom should be late February to mid March so we have a long, long way to go and a long, long way to fall and don't expect to buy so quick at the bottom-3rd wave aftermaths are like 87-sideways for several weeks. I won't be buying calls-I have stops in (fairly loose) and will ride it thru-I don't expect a bounce yet! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 B4, A few grand is nothing but insurance. If we go to 920 I sell the calls and go even shorter. If we break below 900 meaningfully then i sell the calls at a small loss. It's all about sleeping at night. Tonight and the next four nights, i will snore. I need it. :wink2: Hows this? 800-790 by Jan end a rally and then 650 by March end. A dream, maybe, maybe not. Don't pay me no mind. I am nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Hows this? 800-790 by Jan end a rally and then 650 by March end. A dream, maybe, maybe not. Don't pay me no mind. I am nuts. end, you're anything but. in july we had an intraday SPX drop of 150 pts in 6 trading days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Hey Guys, Looks like the great calls just keep on coming here at Capitalstool. Did not have the stomach to buy RYVNX today and hold over the long weekend. I see the P/C ratio is at .82 today. Hope that gives us a bounce on Tuesday-Wednsday to go short into. I see Simple Guy is looking for 26.25 on the QQQ's to load the boat! He's been so close with his calls it's a bit unnerving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 From 931-901 in a week; the agonizing drip-drip-drip of liquidity searching for it's own level. Barely noticible on the weekly charts. The descent has begun. I am now 90% cash, 10% short UNH after K-Wave rekindled some fond memories from the recent past. Added to shorts @ 84 on the safe-haven bounce today; will be in the 60's shortly. I'm more optimistic about K Mart than I am about health care, only shrinking margins for all concerned. I am not a wimp! However, last time I looked, long weekends are rarely followed by dramatic drops: bears sit and worry too long, as they are prone to do; bulls get too optimistic after 3 days of financial propaganda, especially if they are sitting on cash. I vote for Mark's Candle II, followed by Arch's t*ts-to-the-wall downer later in the week. Will re-establish puts on Tuesday, normal caveats. The curse of being an options guy is timing. I am strongly considering SG's 200% leveraged short fund on the next leg down + BEARX --> timing will get real tough once were out of the range we've been in, which has worked out well for me in options. Either that, or go with 2004 LEAPS (I've NEVER made money on a LEAP). Looks like a double at least by the time we hit the next false "bottom". How many shorts are going to cover at 800, eh? Will paint a perfect chart for the bulls. Plus, the war will be on. Good weekend, all. Mark, thanks again for your great summaries, you've got one devoted reader here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasyAl Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 On the other hand, the new moon on Feb. 1 (also at 5:49 a.m. on a Saturday morning -- is this some kind of cosmic joke?) looks fairly bullish when coupled with end-of-month seasonality. Machine: Feb. 1 is also Chinese New Year, which will be the year of sheep. The question is whether sheeps resemble to bears more than bulls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 I talk regularly with several insurance/financial planner guys; one said he was recommending the variable-annuity PPO's (see post on page 1) to "doom and gloomers" like myself. Guarantted return. The insurance companies are also required to keep full asset value + 20-30% as reserves. This, his pitch went, contrasts to 5% bank reserves. I've alway been "Brinkerized " when it comes to variable annuities, but the company (Farmers) seems quite solvent. May be a good place to store 6 figures, since FDIC limits 100K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 I talk regularly with several insurance/financial planner guys; one said he was recommending the variable-annuity PPO's (see post on page 1) to "doom and gloomers" like myself. Guarantted return. The insurance companies are also required to keep full asset value + 20-30% as reserves. This, his pitch went, contrasts to 5% bank reserves. I've alway been "Brinkerized " when it comes to variable annuities, but the company (Farmers) seems quite solvent. May be a good place to store 6 figures, since FDIC limits 100K. I have a similar group of financial planner/insurance guys, and I asked her abot these and if they were a good option for her customers. Her response was the problems are: 1) your money is tied up for years with big penalties for early withdrawal 2) heavy mangement fees and further when I asked what the big/smart money is doing now, she said they are in cash. Some of the smaller/dumber money has gone into these products. I'll follow up more later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 awesome commentary mark,excellent info as always..I look foward to your rantings,its the highlight of my day.(I have no life lol) had some mar 26 puts bought @ 1.35 and sold for 1.85 in 2 days.I'm happy with the profit but I still wuss out on making any big bets either way(stage fright i guess) my only position for now is a few ebay april puts picked up near its highs.I will wait for the reversal that i know will come on those shares.I will attempt to pick up more qqq puts on a decent bounce. I used to have huge daily swings of 10-30k in my accounts a few years ago but I can't deal with that anymore,I guess I need to get more aggressive like i used to be,but I don't want to get whopsawed anymore for large amounts of cash(A 1k swing in my accounts freak me out nowdays) I have been making money on most of my trades the last few weeks thanks to sg ,doc and everyone else on the board,I really appreciate it...heres hopin for a nice bounce for all of you to short! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Annuities are a great deal provided, you deal with a co. that has a living benefit and will be solvent 10 years from now. Try ING's 7% V/A . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roidrage Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 May be a good place to store 6 figures, since FDIC limits 100K. Consider opening six FDIC insured accounts at six banks or S&Ls or consider rolling over US Treasuries through TreasuryDirect if you are that concerned about solvency of the institutions. rr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 End, Mike Drakulich said on Crystal Ball today that he thinks January will be a DOWN month. FYI, FWIW Bhudda speaks of high? crimes and misdemeanors, BUTT: folx, we haven't even had one SHOW TRIAL of any consequence yet. speaking of that sort of thing, the latest missive from MARTIN WEISS alleges there are something on the order of 47 separate major investigations into Wall St institutions and their ALLEGED shenanigans. And HRFF read SNOT 'long' ago, that Henry Bludgeon was/is scheduled, soon FUR his rendezvous w DESTINY, "destiny", evidently, in the form of the NY AG's office, butt, so FUR, nuttin's happened. We are ASSured that all is well and it's one big ROSY SCENARIO....ass FUR ass the eye can c. oh, YEAH? Now WHY is Barton bailing THIS year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 18, 2003 Report Share Posted January 18, 2003 Bare, It only took a year and a half to respond or acknowledge me. "End," Tanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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