Charliss Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 EOQ- upside % already in. Prices easily pushed up on lower volume and also pure trading profits can be taken. Mkt goes down some today. Someone (read plural) is concerned about the same things stoolies are. I have begun to short. At some point, after all the data- technical, fundamental, psychological, economic, political, and emotional- has been ingested and assimilated, intuition has to extrapolate and project in terms of a decision. As Mousey and I have discussed, " One only becomes real at the point of action." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 "A rise in rates could be dangerous in terms of its impact on the housing market and on the relative valuation of bonds and stocks. But over the short term, such a rate rise would likely be accompanied by a stock-market rally, due in no small part to a reallocation by bond-heavy portfolios back into the equity market. Wouldn't reallocating existing funds cause bonds to fall even further, and then higher interest rates having an even more negative effect on the housing market? The bond market has already been pumped up by the public and speculation concerning the objectives of the FEED, i.e. the Greenspan put. The FEED appears very close to be losing its 'control' of the market and will need 'unconventional' measures soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 For over a week now I've been pounding the table that the top was in at 1015. Those that expected a melt up starting today got slammed unless they heard the oncoming train at the top. Quite a lot of technical and physcological damage was done today.-some perspective -Friday the 13th we closed-Dow-9196-Comp-1653-Spoo;s-998. Last Friday-the 20th we closed-Dow-9179-Comp-1648-Spoo's-994-today we closed-Dow-8989-Comp-1625-Spoo's-976. Those numbers tell a lot-with all the insane spikes up and down for 3 WEEKS we have STEADILY been going DOWN. So with a 3 week trend not only intact but accelerating-WHY oh WHY? would you be long-the TREND is your FRIEND-RIGHT! Trade Safe! Brian hope you are right. On the back of your recent posts I opened shorts on CTX and RYL. I will be interested to see if those homebuilders backlogs evaporate! Homebuilder PEs are at historical ceilings and more importantly those PEs are calculated with reference to cycle high earnings. Look at earnings over the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 Butt-Good for you CTX and RYL offer great opportunity as you say their valuations are insane. To me the key thing is mortage rates are going UP which will add to dwindling demand for houses. Builders throughout our history have always, always kept building as the demand curve falls, then they get stuck with unsold inventory that they take a bath on. Clayton Homes actually warned today, they are only the first member of the HGX to do so, the rest will follow. Plus what no one TALKS about is the mess at FRE and FNM which Bob Prechter says will be the years SIGMA event. There is a great link posted by I believe Purdy on page one-have a read. A bail out of those could (pun intended) bring the HOUSE DOWN. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 The stupid bastards people who think rising bond yields are bullish forget about all the new supply coming on stream in both stock and bond markets as the corpses rush into the market to steal whatever they can before it's too late. They will then take that capital and consume, not invest it! Didn't these people learn a damn thing from the internet bubble. This is exactly how bubbles destroy capital and implode. Sheesh. <_> That's 40 down, 60 to go, in the first hundred points everybody misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 Considering the general lack of interest and lower volume, it should have been a walk on the beach for da boyz to push the market higher or at least keep it even today. They didn't want to. Whatever buying and painting was being done was by a small group of money managers/fundies still trying to make numbers and bonuses for the quarter. Next week, the market will die from lack on interest -- no buyers and no sellers. Wall Street is going to the Hamptons and Joe-6 is going to Disney World. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 edit-Purdys post on FRE and FNM is on last nites thread-don't miss it scary stuff! Trade Safe--p.s. DOC-you are RIGHT-but remember " you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charliss Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 Considering the general lack of interest and lower volume, it should have been a walk on the beach for da boyz to push the market higher or at least keep it even today. They didn't want to. Whatever buying and painting was being done was by a small group of money managers/fundies still trying to make numbers and bonuses for the quarter. Next week, the market will die from lack on interest -- no buyers and no sellers. Wall Street is going to the Hamptons and Joe-6 is going to Disney World. I don't buy this "going to the Hamptons" stuff as an explanation for today's mkt action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 I don't buy this "going to the Hamptons" stuff as an explanation for today's mkt action. Okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charliss Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 Okay. This explanation is rather emphasized by Crapvision. I would take a look underneath any explanation that has by now achieved acceptance simply by over-use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 Long Hot Summer For Bulls in your Weak End Vacation Anals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 The Hampton's thing is malarkey. light volume days typically go up because they are dominated by daytraders, many of whom are short. Short queezes often start on light volume days like this. Didn't happen this time. Let them make dumb excuses. That's fine. It's a symptom of the first hundred down. In fact most of these guys won't start to worry until the SPX is suddenly back below 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 Most of these buttheads (fund mgrs) have already made their Qtr/Half - perhaps year. I don't think they cared. They squared up and went to happy hour early. EDIT: Well, thats sure as hell what I would have done anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 Finally opened a short on XLF. For several days Datek was giving a message that XLF could not be shorted. Working insidse a huge FINANCIAL - I think I can safely say the best days are behind the financials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted June 27, 2003 Report Share Posted June 27, 2003 Gotta love these j@ck@ss bond futures pit traders commenting on the GM deal... No f@#$in clue - reason deal flew was it's in the index, was priced way back of secondary, and techincals are very + More garbage Seamus, what do you refer to when you say "technicals"? tanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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