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Valentine's Day Ultimatum


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Agreed, Ned, Pile, wndy et al.  As Doc says, shorts are their own worst enema (albeit in a different context).  

 

I've said this before, but I'll restate it here:  The difficulty with trading is that the market moves at a different speed than your mind does.  The most efficient path between two points is a straight line, and that's the route your mind naturally takes.  The market doesn't.  

 

Ever been here? ---> A bear looks at a chart and says, "XYZ stock is trading at 50, when it's really only worth 10.  I'mma short this POS."  He shorts it, and XYZ moves down to 45... "I knew it! Okay!  Here it comes!  Gonna fall to 10 aaany second now!"  And as if on cue, almost like magic -- XYZ gets short-squeezed up to 55. And then comes the moral outrage:  "I don't get it!  Who's buying this crap! Who's that dumb?  Are there gangs of large-block buyers sitting on fly-infested porches somewhere, strumming bangos and sucking applesauce out of straws while entering in limit orders way over ask?!?    WTF!!!"  

 

Guess what?  That's the game -- "rightness" be damned.  You can be right at the wrong time and still go broke.  R.N. Elliot's whole point w/ Elliot wave is that the market is NOT an efficient mechanism.  If it were, the market wouldn't have gotten to this over-blown state to begin with.  Always remember that the market virtually never moves at the speed your mind thinks it should.  This is because your mind is vastly more efficient.

 

Don't blame your fellow stoolies for this.  Don't insinuate that they're raging cretins when they suggest the market may go up at times, because it can and will.  Simply do your best to make an informed decision on your own trades, and offer your views when you have something to share.

 

Disagreements are fine.  Just don't kill the messengers.  :wink2:

 

 

Prtzl, you've got my vote for prez. Very insightful observation.

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Investors intelligence says 31.5% bears. With such a small bearish number, how much buying can be expected? All the chickenstool longs are gaming the oscillators, stops in place. Gee, I wonder what might cause a run in those stops. Tic toc, tic toc. New lows

coming soon to a market near you.

An article was posted earlier referring to Nortel's great chart. Is the chart better now, than when it was at $80? Is there a law against reading balance sheets? A total POS. This bear has many more "investors" to educate before it's finished.

:P

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Prtzl, what's your stop?

 

Sorry for the late response, Alex, I was away from the computer. My stop's at 885 SPX, which is a long way up, but I'm short from 930 and content to ride it out. The next downmove, when it comes, will probably not allow much time to get on board. I tend to think it will look a lot like July -- fast and brutal. I'd rather give back some profits than miss it by getting too focussed on the wiggles.

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HyperT's 14.5 month prognosis may prove too conservative; the debt-fix disease runs epidemic among clueless genXYers, latest case in point:

 

http://hometown.aol.com/slaythebeast/index.html

 

Good Lord, this link is scary. Next thing you know, on our way to the internet liquor stores, we'll start being assaulted by pop-up ads asking us for "spare change."

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do not trade options unless you know and have practiced a lot.

....and beware if leaving the rumpus room unattended for any length of time. was traveling last thu/fri - made diligent efforts to keep an eye on things from internet cafes - but missed a great exit by not being completely in the game when the robot was waving arms and going 'TA danger will robinson, TA danger'.

 

I'll provide crayons if they need them

 

:lol:

 

b4 if you're so inclined - i'm interested in that moon/tides info as well. many TIA.

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IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DOWN

 

We are in the middle of the big down you know!

 

Like the old guy in the Jessie Livermore story who says 'Well were in a bull market you now" when asked why he didnt trade all the time.

 

Go over and check Adam Hamiltons newest essay.

 

A big VXN (VIXEN - a wild destructive fem) wedge about to destroy the NASTY!!!

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Prtzl, what's your stop?

 

Sorry for the late response, Alex, I was away from the computer. My stop's at 885 SPX, which is a long way up, but I'm short from 930 and content to ride it out. The next downmove, when it comes, will probably not allow much time to get on board. I tend to think it will look a lot like July -- fast and brutal. I'd rather give back some profits than miss it by getting too focussed on the wiggles.

That is about the same with me. I was up over 60% since I got on this train Jan. 10th going into last Monday and hit a mental stop on Wednesday but, with the noise as it was, and the downside looking so close and harsh when it comes, I have decided to wait it out. I am still up 30% as of Friday close so I took a bit of a hit during the week but, I don't want to try to game what looks to me like a quick, harsh move down. I want to be on the train not running after it when it leaves the station.

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Gosh, this must be a record-breaking thread...

 

Mark - yes, I think that the US dolor will bounce for a while. Nothing spectacular - parhaps just to 102-103. Then the downtrend should resume.

 

BARE, a failure of the market to bounce won't "repudiate" anything. It's all a matter of probabilities. The indicators aren't saying "the market will go up" - they are saying that right now the odds are for a small bounce to reset the deeply Dover Sole condition. Doesn't mean that it will happen - only that it is likely to happen. Did the failure of a disaster to strike during the weekend "repudiate" Arch's method?

 

TDBS, what I was referring to by "measuring and analysing human folly" is technical analysis. No, it's not just "curve-fitting and numeroly". It really works. And, no, I can't provide you with a single link that neatly explains everything with statistics, etc. - you'll have to do some research on your own. But learning TA has vastly improved my trading - and I am sure that many other people here can say the same. There are so many examples of successfully "measuring human folly" (and trading against it) that I don't know what to begin with - bull/bear ratios, VIX, CPC, BPIs, Elliott waves, cycles, etc., etc.

 

No, none of them gives you an exact measure of probability - you'll have to measure it indirectly. For instance, build a trading system based on them and see how often it makes winning trades.

 

Drano, the dead in South Korea's subway station are 160+. :cry:

 

Regards,

Vesselin

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Guest AssMaster
Bears need to listen to what the market is telling us.

 

On September 21 of 2001, the market was telling us that the greatest borrow and spend orgy of all time was right around the corner.

 

In July and October 2002, the market was telling us that the housing, refinance bubble was getting ready to accelerate into the parabola mode.

 

During 2002, the gold market was telling us that hyperinflation is coming.

 

On February 13th, the market is telling us that there will be no war in Iraq, and a new killer app is coming in techland. That's why the Nasdaq is holding up better than the Dow or S & P.

 

Go long if we get follow through on Tuesday.

 

Let it run and wait for the market to reverse before shorting again.

 

Don't fight the tape.

Perhaps the killer app in tech-land is .NET.

 

In trying to install Visual Studio.NET I found it will only install on NT/2000 machines. If true, .NET will force an upgrade cycle.

 

I am thinking of upgrading my Win 98 machine to 2000 and buying VisualStudio.NET because my customers are requesting it.

 

So I imagine the possibility that beginning with the developers, then business, then consumers - Microsoft will force most serious users in Windows-land upgrade to NT/2000 and (probably a new PC as well) over the next few years. After that, it's everyone else's turn to get upgraded.

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Bears need to listen to what the market is telling us.

 

On September 21 of 2001, the market was telling us that the greatest borrow and spend orgy of all time was right around the corner.

 

In July and October 2002, the market was telling us that the housing, refinance bubble was getting ready to accelerate into the parabola mode.

 

During 2002, the gold market was telling us that hyperinflation is coming.

 

On February 13th, the market is telling us that there will be no war in Iraq, and a new killer app is coming in techland.  That's why the Nasdaq is holding up better than the Dow or S & P.

 

Go long if we get follow through on Tuesday.

 

Let it run and wait for the market to reverse before shorting again.

 

Don't fight the tape.

Perhaps the killer app in tech-land is .NET.

 

In trying to install Visual Studio.NET I found it will only install on NT/2000 machines. If true, .NET will force an upgrade cycle.

 

I am thinking of upgrading my Win 98 machine to 2000 and buying VisualStudio.NET because my customers are requesting it.

 

So I imagine the possibility that beginning with the developers, then business, then consumers - Microsoft will force most serious users in Windows-land upgrade to NT/2000 and (probably a new PC as well) over the next few years. After that, it's everyone else's turn to get upgraded.

why not just upgrade from 98 to 2000?????

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That's the point. Perhaps I was not clear enough.

 

Because I have to do a VB.NET project...I have to buy Visual Studio.NET...which is why I have to upgrade from 98 to 2000...because Visual Studio.NET will ony run on NT/2000.

 

And because of this, it strikes me as the same sort of thing which has eventually triggered an upgrade cycle.

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Bears need to listen to what the market is telling us.

 

On September 21 of 2001, the market was telling us that the greatest borrow and spend orgy of all time was right around the corner.

 

In July and October 2002, the market was telling us that the housing, refinance bubble was getting ready to accelerate into the parabola mode.

 

During 2002, the gold market was telling us that hyperinflation is coming.

 

On February 13th, the market is telling us that there will be no war in Iraq, and a new killer app is coming in techland.  That's why the Nasdaq is holding up better than the Dow or S & P.

 

Go long if we get follow through on Tuesday.

 

Let it run and wait for the market to reverse before shorting again.

 

Don't fight the tape.

Perhaps the killer app in tech-land is .NET.

 

In trying to install Visual Studio.NET I found it will only install on NT/2000 machines. If true, .NET will force an upgrade cycle.

 

I am thinking of upgrading my Win 98 machine to 2000 and buying VisualStudio.NET because my customers are requesting it.

 

So I imagine the possibility that beginning with the developers, then business, then consumers - Microsoft will force most serious users in Windows-land upgrade to NT/2000 and (probably a new PC as well) over the next few years. After that, it's everyone else's turn to get upgraded.

 

Visual Studio .net works beautifully with XP, as well. That's also an upgrade. I'm constantly impressed by XP's networking capabilities.

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