B4 the Bell, Weeeek End Thread

[The End]

Exactly!

 

So what if the Dow is at 100,000 if the Dollar is worthless.

[Hiding Bear]

Jorma attributes to this to 'uncompassionate conservatism.' I'd counter that many would have been better off saving for themselves, rather than depending on imprudently managed public programs, which to this day exempt themselves from ERISA (the 1974 act governing private pension plans), and from ANY fiduciary responsibility to beneficiaries. That's criminal -- but owing to sovereign immunity, you can't sue them either. Boils my conservative blood, it does ...

Republicans estimate that GWB's proposal to self fund IRA type SS acounts will cost a $1 trillion over the next ten years, to pay off continued SS liabilities. However they appear to be promising that in the event these new SS retirement accounts failed to yield the expected return, the government will fund the difference - kind of like the present Pension Benefits GC which is filling in a lot of gaps in airline retirement plans.

 

I believe the true costs of the above plans are drastically understated, but I do agree the sooner we move to a true funded retirement program (ie using the money for real investments and not in some pyramid type SS scheme) the better

off we will be.

[beardrech]

B4 AND ALL STOOLIES

The discussion threadbare and i were having isn't an idle acedemic exercise---I see it as a theological premonition(not fortunetelling) of what we are witnessing now----The growing contempt for politicians led me to ask what --taking an economic enmisseration of the planet,of the 1st order of magnitude,happening in the not too distant future,what would the polity look like?

 

If the politicians,male ones mostly,are generating such conteMpt now,what will the future, with all of its misery bring?---

 

This question motivated me to go back in history, and all of a sudden,even though I'm jewish,non-catholic ,I saw a reoccurence of Madonna worship--in political drag if you will---

And the articles threadbare suggested were perfectly correspondent to the envisioned polity--provided one substitutes secular names and terms as one reads the documentds

 

BEARDRECH

 

For the time being They spelll---H-----I------L-----L-----L-----A-----R-----Y

 

or as i refer to it the abandonment of the male gender's political responsibilty and the hegemony of the female gender--the birthing and therefor more survival oriented gender

 

Anyone not respecting my insight I challenge to a no-holds-barrerd knife fight--

And once again I thank g** for my lifetime mebership in the US Knife Association

[Brisbane Bear]

N.Ron,

 

It is probably futile to compare different Regions,Cities ,States and especially Countries when it comes to this stuff,there is just so many variables to be considered,however the one thing that we all have in common is that this economic cycle has gone on for such a long time,that even just a slight pause will be enough to do enormous damage imho.

 

If my assumptions are right,things are deteriorating rapidly,the first dominoes have fallen and the knock on effect has begun.

 

Not long to wait...days ,maybe weeks I reckon.

 

Too much debt,coupled with too many overheads for most people will be the straw that breaks the camels back imho.

[Guest]

Yep, looks like the airlines are doing well.

 

Alitalia to slash 5000 jobs

Collective Bellaciao, France - 25 minutes ago

... The layoffs would affect nearly one in four workers at the airline, saving the company an estimated E315 million over 2005 and 2006.

 

http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=3288

[beardrech]

Just having spent 3 days in Atlanta, I was shocked at how bad things are there. Vacant stores abound in the malls. A big Macy's vacant downtown. Restaurants 2/3 empty on Fri and Sat night. Except for the gleaming skyscrapers, and some really nice old residential neighborhoods, I was surprised at how shabby and downtrodden the place looked, behind the facade of bombast and grandiosity. Something is wrong there. Saw an article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution that households incomes in the last 3 years have dropped to, or below the level hit in 1990, after a huge boom in the 90s.

 

Any Atlantans have any stories from there?

Dok

Two weeks ago my Subaru needed repairs and the toe truck driver in was an Afro-american who had migrated to Atlanta 15 years ago and rhad recently returned to the DC area(maryland)

 

I got into ocnversation and he told me that the reason he returned was that his barber shop became a nullity and in my words people were tearing their hair out with their bare hands instead of being shorn by a razor---

So no customers,no money, he regresses to back to where he started from,his mom's home---

beardrech I ask, is this anecdote a picture of the beggining of the great wanderung,the vast migrations of impoverished humanity that takes place every couple of generations or so???

[Jorma]

RE: Jorma attributes to this to 'uncompassionate conservatism.'

 

No, you infered that. Benefits certainly should have been cut in 83. Means testing should have been instituted. SSI should have been stripped out of the SS balance sheet and put on budget. etc. etc.

 

The galling thing now is that the $2 trillon plus in excess SS withholdings since then have been spent and the SS 'Trust Fund' has been given a special type of interagency bond which will be defaulted on. This was done with knowlege aforethought by Greenspan himself. Also with the knowlege that the transaction would hide the real deficit numbers.

 

Now of course he is leading a new charge preparing for the default. Still one wonders what the response of the somnambulant electorate will be when we are paying off the principal and interest on Chnese held Treasury paper while what we "only owe to ourselves" in the words of John O'Neil is defaulted uoon. (Actually I have a side theory that China better not keep buying long as the day will come when we stiff them) Still we will certainly stiff ourselves. To pay for the endless war don't you know.

 

One can argue up and down about the structure of SS from it's inception until now on ideological or theological or whatever grounds but the deal struck in 83 was simply a con on a massive scale.

[traderfromhell]

B4 AND ALL STOOLIES

The discussion threadbare and i were having isn't an idle acedemic exercise---I see it as a theological premonition(not fortunetelling) of what we are witnessing now----The growing contempt for politicians led me to ask what --taking an economic enmisseration of the planet,of the 1st order of magnitude,happening in the not too distant future,what would the polity look like?

 

If the politicians,male ones mostly,are generating such conteMpt now,what will the future, with all of its misery bring?---

 

This question motivated me to go back in history, and all of a sudden,even though I'm jewish,non-catholic ,I saw a reoccurence of Madonna worship--in political drag if you will---

And the articles threadbare suggested were perfectly correspondent to the envisioned polity--provided one substitutes secular names and terms as one reads the documentds

 

BEARDRECH

 

For the time being They spelll---H-----I------L-----L-----L-----A-----R-----Y

 

or as i refer to it the abandonment of the male gender's political responsibilty and the hegemony of the female gender--the birthing and therefor more survival oriented gender

 

Anyone not respecting my insight I challenge to a no-holds-barrerd knife fight--

And once again I thank g** for my lifetime mebership in the US Knife Association

Although Prechter has lost quite a lot of respect these past few years the growing popularity of a Hillary would fit in well with his take on the grand scheme of things concerning where we are in the LONG WAVE. Down we go.

[guitarman]

BeerMarket wrote -

this one's for the coincidence theorists: etc.

 

What happened to the ban on 9/11 conspiracy talk?

[Guest]

I think the concept of retirement is going to go into retirement itself... the boomers will not get their expected rate of return from the markets, and many are in debt up to their eyeballs. They will keep working out of necessity, probably until they drop. Companies will be top heavy with older, very experienced workers.

 

The under 40 crowd will be punished by this change in a few ways. While the boomers will collect what's left of SS, and SS taxes will continue to increase. There is no other way. The AARP will NOT accept lower entitlement payouts. Younger workers will also find their paths of advancement blocked by people who cannot and will not exit the workforce.

[PandaBear]

Exactly!

 

So what if the Dow is at 100,000 if the Dollar is worthless.

 

Well, under such hyperinflationary conditions, owning stocks will be better than owning dollars.

 

If the dollar depreciates 95% from current levels and the Dow hits 100K, you will take a 50% loss if you put all your money in the Dow. You will take a 95% loss if you stay in cash. The Dow beats cash under those circumstances. And the difference is potentially quite large. Similar situations existed at various times in Brazil and Argentina during their experiences with hyperinflation. At times, the stock market became cheap in REAL terms, because of the rapid depreciation of the currency.

 

The question is, will gold hold up better than stocks? If not, what will? Foreign currencies are all fiat and few have credibility. Real estate might, although being tied to the credit bubble may hamper its growth.

 

Before I get covered in rotten tomatoes from the deflationists , think about the Fed giving all taxpayers $10,000. Would that get the hyperinflationmobile started? How about $1000 into every bank account?

 

Monetary deflation (I'm not talking price deflation) is not possible unless the Fed allows it. They can always stop it, at the cost of destroying the currency. Price deflation can also be arrested by a much higher rate of inflation. Question is, how much deflation will they permit? They must answer to the government and the banking cartel, so it's safe to assume that they will not do anything to harm the bankers' interests.

[Brisbane Bear]

2 guys were in the jungle,when suddenly a Cheetah appeared out of nowhere,the first guy quickly opens his bag and takes out a brand new pair of NIKE runners and puts them on,the second guy said "You cant outrun a Cheetah" to which the first guy replies"I know,but I need only outrun you"

 

This little joke always comes to mind when everyone confuses my bearishness with pessimism,I tell everyone that I am very optimistic,I am very optimistic that I will out-survive you sheet for brains bulls... :grin:

[PeakOil]

Exactly!

 

So what if the Dow is at 100,000 if the Dollar is worthless.

 

Well, under such hyperinflationary conditions, owning stocks will be better than owning dollars.

 

If the dollar depreciates 95% from current levels and the Dow hits 100K, you will take a 50% loss if you put all your money in the Dow. You will take a 95% loss if you stay in cash. The Dow beats cash under those circumstances. And the difference is potentially quite large. Similar situations existed at various times in Brazil and Argentina during their experiences with hyperinflation. At times, the stock market became cheap in REAL terms, because of the rapid depreciation of the currency.

 

The question is, will gold hold up better than stocks? If not, what will? Foreign currencies are all fiat and few have credibility. Real estate might, although being tied to the credit bubble may hamper its growth.

 

Before I get covered in rotten tomatoes from the deflationists , think about the Fed giving all taxpayers $10,000. Would that get the hyperinflationmobile started? How about $1000 into every bank account?

 

Monetary deflation (I'm not talking price deflation) is not possible unless the Fed allows it.(emphasis added) They can always stop it, at the cost of destroying the currency. Price deflation can also be arrested by a much higher rate of inflation. Question is, how much deflation will they permit? They must answer to the government and the banking cartel, so it's safe to assume that they will not do anything to harm the bankers' interests.

Bingo PB! The Fed can't stomach deflation. Delation is a death sentence to Central Wanksters. Unconventional means?? You ain't seen nuthin' yet.

 

Inflate or die! Death to the dollah!

[StanTheMan]

The Fed can't Stop debt deflation they can only postpone it...

[BeerMarket]

BeerMarket wrote -

this one's for the coincidence theorists: etc.

 

What happened to the ban on 9/11 conspiracy talk?

I wasn't aware of a general ban on this, moderators can feel free to delete. But my point wasn't really to prove / disprove any conspiracy - really just posting 2 recent articles I thought might be of interest. It was, however, hard to ignore how the articles supported theories that have been discussed here and elsewhere.