MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted December 9, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2003 Feed Fool, This is the EWI count...The rally since last Oct has been a giant B wave which has its own A-B-C up ..final C of the giant B wave about to end and giant C wave down about to commense per R. Prechtor.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted December 9, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2003 I must say this is the scariest looking chart of them all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted December 9, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2003 No four year up-cycle had government deficits like these acting as a ball and chain on it!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted December 9, 2003 Report Share Posted December 9, 2003 Looks like A wave of B, b and c still outstanding. I am going to stick with my b wave taking longer amount of time. I am going to fade Preacher for now and see how the Down wave B behave. Short-Term Chart Long-Term Bond Chart Looks like we are in a B Wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 9, 2003 Report Share Posted December 9, 2003 This is the EWI count...The rally since last Oct has been a giant B wave which has its own A-B-C up ..final C of the giant B wave about to end and giant C wave down about to commense per R. Prechtor.... What worries me is this - what if the rally since October 2002 is an 1-2-3, we have just a correction (4), and then 5 takes us to new highs? This supposed wave C has been going on for waaaay too long. Could it be wave 3 instead? Regards, Vesselin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarBu Posted December 10, 2003 Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 What worries me is this - what if the rally since October 2002 is an 1-2-3, we have just a correction (4), and then 5 takes us to new highs? This supposed wave C has been going on for waaaay too long. Could it be wave 3 instead? Regards, Vesselin Dr Bontchev, A failed 5th wave (forming twin peaks) may dive deeply too. (menu fit bear :grin: ). An alternative route: True, this wave C got way extended, but be followed by another 5 down waves, way deep enough. (menu fit bear too, :grin: ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted December 10, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 Vesselin, You are correct, that is a possibility if the entire bear market ended in October 2002 and this is the first large degree w.1 up.. And a w.4 and another w.5 up would make this apparent. But w.1's are always deeply retraced by w.2 so we get a big decline but not one that will take out the Oct low(start of w.1) and no plunge into the abyss! This C -wave is typical price extension and not that far out there in terms of time extension either...A and B were pretty close in time so you expect C to be much longer but we are kind of getting out there in time. In some ways, I am hoping for such an outcome( end of bear market). But my trading instincts are not expecting this. At best we may get a triangle or double or triple corrective structure that could carry us sideways for quite some time similar to Japan. But as I watch the dollar and all the severe dislocations in the economy I am not too hopeful for either of these and if a gun were held to my head and I was made to wager all my trading money at this moment long or short for the next year. IT WOULD BE SHORT! Regards, MH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted December 10, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 We can only hope and pray for such an outcome and it is an EW potential projection! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted December 10, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 10, 2003 Noooooo, say it ain't so....liquidity drives the stock market????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 Vesselin, You are correct, that is a possibility if the entire bear market ended in October 2002 and this is the first large degree w.1 up.. And a w.4 and another w.5 up would make this apparent. But w.1's are always deeply retraced by w.2 so we get a big decline but not one that will take out the Oct low(start of w.1) and no plunge into the abyss! This C -wave is typical price extension and not that far out there in terms of time extension either...A and B were pretty close in time so you expect C to be much longer but we are kind of getting out there in time. In some ways, I am hoping for such an outcome( end of bear market). But my trading instincts are not expecting this. At best we may get a triangle or double or triple corrective structure that could carry us sideways for quite some time similar to Japan. But as I watch the dollar and all the severe dislocations in the economy I am not too hopeful for either of these and if a gun were held to my head and I was made to wager all my trading money at this moment long or short for the next year. IT WOULD BE SHORT! Regards, MH Huge Bull market wave 5 top. Only wave 3 from 1972 Bull market. It?s all to do with time frame. We can also count 2002 bottom as wave 1 then wave 2 up, We are still in wave A, Wave B and C are still outstanding. On a longer time frame it?s looks like a rounded top or an ending diagonal, which takes out the top and head even higher. Dow Joke is going to be a total Joke if commodities go to the moon and Toilet papers go down the drain. Compare to toilet paper it may more value with its overseas earnings. But w.1's are always deeply retraced by w.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted December 11, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 SCH good one to watch for tops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted December 11, 2003 Report Share Posted December 11, 2003 B wave on Joke and nasty is not complete yet; Fake wave down is still outstanding. Here is another bear market chart and the B wave can be real nasty then the final C wave. Some of you may find out how nasty it can get. Forget the fundamentals it only comes in play with arrivals of final C wave. Sure Toilet paper is going somewhere, Guess where it?s heading??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted December 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2003 10,000 with Dow Theory non-confirmations. Guess we can throw this indicator in the trash with sentiment? New market dynamics...everything going up all at the time. The bear has been permanently slaughtered. Boner blasts on GE(stopped out of my short at break even) and GM made it happen, everything else pretty much "held" Jimmy the Bull Crammers's advise(paraphrased) tonight on Crapvision: "Risk averse investors are just a bunch of whimps. Anyone bearish is an idiot. Economic recovery in full swing , minimal 4% growth ALL next year. Buy the small and midcaps especially the one's that haven't doubled yet." They also made some comments on Help Wanted Index and Cap Utilization being up and how great the recovery is proceeding???? Say what???I checked and the latest Dec figures were flat. I guess any move greater than 0 % is a fantastic accomplishment of the Bush economic recovery plan. The BULL's S___ is covering my fur and getting way over my head. Getting weaker, can't breath, can I still claw my way out? MH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted December 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2003 Huhhhh, what bear market???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted December 12, 2003 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2003 Ike has an interesting post here: http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=3433 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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