Jetlag Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 I think it's a bankruptcy spread over 2 years. Eventually the common goes to zero, but it has 2 years to fluctuate. 689487[/snapback] Now that the populace knows "there's something wrong" with their insurer they're doomed. It was all over newspapers on Monday. People who never talk to me about financial stuff told/asked me about AIG. In a world wide perspective they're more visible than any Bank of America or JPMorgan, or whatever finagler is going to come out of this alive. If treasuries jump to 6% or 7%, just for one single day, all the money in the world will stampede to buy them until yield goes below 3% for 10Y. That would be an opportunity of lifetime. Who cares that they are broke? This Ponzi game can run for another 100 years before this "broke" will materialize. Comparing debt/GDP, USA government is somewhere around position #40 or so. We have 39 more countries to default in front of us, with all money escaping here. 689490[/snapback] Libor's already there and I don't see people lending hand over fist to highly rated banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 Max Pain for SPY at 127 IWM 73 http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 IYR Back kissing the broken ST UTL and 50d EMA Butt it's OpEx... As long as it doesn't break that LT DTL... note that some top holdings of IYR made a break above a similar LT DTL but it was a head fake out, same could happen here but I'd be more cautious in that scenario. It would have to break the 50EMA the 200MA/EMA and the 900EMA (I'm still unsure on what's best the 900MA or 900EMA, I guess it's the same as picking 200W MA or 200W EMA) to do that. Look at Simon PiG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mies van der Rump Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 JPMorgan Gave Lehman $138 Billion After Bankruptcy http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...d=aX7mhYCHmVf8& Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. gave $138 billion this week in Federal Reserve-backed advances to the broker dealer unit of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. to settle Lehman trades and keep financial markets stable amid the biggest bankruptcy in history, according to a court filing. One advance of $87 billion was made on Sept. 15 after the pre-dawn bankruptcy filing, and another of $51 billion was made today, Lehman said in court documents. Both advances were made to settle securities transactions with customers of Lehman and its clearance parties, according to the filing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 "We have a new economic indicator. When you see Bill Gross on Crapvision demanding this-or-that bailout to save his ass, go long. The indicator is 2-for-2 so far. The Treasury department bailed Gross out of his Fan-Fred exposure, and the Fed just bailed him out of his AIG CDS positions. Both bailouts came almost immediately after he appeared on Crapvision with his suggestions - or instead of ?suggestions? maybe I should say ?announcements of new federal policy.? Matt http://www.trivisonno.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lemur Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 Here's one for shorty. $900 billion in bailouts this week is equivalent to $6000 per taxpayer in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted September 17, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 Russian Markets Halted as Emergency Funding Fails to Halt Rout Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Russian markets stopped trading for a second day after emergency funding measures by the government failed to halt the biggest stock rout since the country's debt default and currency devaluation a decade ago. The ruble-denominated Micex Stock Exchange suspended trading indefinitely at 12:10 p.m. after its index erased a 7.6 percent gain and plunged as much as 10 percent within an hour. The benchmark fell 17 percent yesterday, the biggest drop since Bloomberg started tracking the gauge in May 2001. The dollar- denominated RTS halted trading after similar declines. The government yesterday injected $20 billion into the interbank lending market via central bank and Finance Ministry auctions in a bid to contain soaring borrowing rates as credit dried up in the wake of the Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy. The one-day MosPrime overnight rate, a gauge for monitoring liquidity demand, leapt 25 basis points to a record 11.08 percent today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 Man this Russian thing is fascinating. All triggered by their invasion of Georgia. No doubt about it. Those Atlanta rednecks are a tough crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 So, if you need/want the fixed income, what do you buy instead that isn't trash? 689480[/snapback] That's the question. You need to be a world class credit anal cyst to figure out what is safe and what isn't. And remember, in deflation a safe 0% return is a real positive rate of return. Now, if you don't believe we will have deflation, that's a problem. I guess the answer is to hire a credit anal cyst, or give your money to Gross Gross and hope that he stays in power running the government while he runs his bond funds. If treasuries jump to 6% or 7%, just for one single day, all the money in the world will stampede to buy them until yield goes below 3% for 10Y. That would be an opportunity of lifetime. Who cares that they are broke? This Ponzi game can run for another 100 years before this "broke" will materialize. Comparing debt/GDP, USA government is somewhere around position #40 or so. We have 39 more countries to default in front of us, with all money escaping here. 689490[/snapback] It will take some time to get to 6%, obviously. And the fact that there are 40 countries in worse shape doesn't seem at all relevant to me. It's a diversionary argument that avoids the crux of the matter in my view. If the perception is that US credit risk is increasing, yields will rise because pricing decisions are made "at the margin". It only takes one seller who is a little more anxious than the others. Furthermore, yields have been driven to these current levels by an unprecedented level of panic. All panics get reversed. No exceptions. Historical normal levels for Treasuries are somewhere in the 6-7% range. All interest rates will normalize. The pendulum will swing so that real estate investors will again demand 10% and Treasury investors 7%. But here's the thing. The pendulum always swings an offsetting amount in the opposite direction. That's why I think we could see Treasuries at 16% again. There's well established precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 Good Morning! Welcome to Intraday Stool! Thanks to aussiebear for her daily opening! You can join the discussion by registering (PG rated user names only, please) and posting here as well. Registration is easy. Just click the Register link above, enter your email address (which you have the option to keep confidential), and enter a user name. To keep out spammers and scammers, I'll send you an email with a few Monty Python type questions. Just reply with your answers, and I'll approve your registration as soon as I receive your reply. Unfortunately, due to the barrage of spammers using Gmail and certain European email providers, including yahoo.co.uk, we cannot process any registrations associated with a gmail address. In that case please use the email address from your isp, or some other provider. If you have questions about how to register and post, use the Help link in the menu bar at the top of the page. If you know others who might be interested in joining us, use the email to a friend link above the thread. Many tanks for joining us! Doc Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time you don't find the information helpful, I'll give you a full refund. It's that simple!Click here for more information. Subscribe to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Precious Metals Daily, just $39 quarterly. Try it risk free for 30 days! Get this indispensable daily analysis and support the Stool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tradermark Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 Here's one for shorty. $900 billion in bailouts this week is equivalent to $6000 per taxpayer in the US. 689540[/snapback] How did you get that number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 The religious conviction that the dollar is going to collapse seems like any religious conviction to me. It's like the idea that when we die we are going to heaven, when the truth is that we are going into an incinerator or a box in the ground. See, to me, death is tangible while what happens after death is an abstraction, and I was never any good at understanding abstract concepts. Similarly it seems to me that in a world wide credit contraction where most of the debt is denominated in dollars when debt disappears overnight the money gets incinerated. (Actually it never existed in the first place. The credit in this case was fictitious capital.) Suddenly there are less dollars around to pay off the other debt at the very moment that the debtors and the creditors are trying to get their hands on more dollars. OK, so that's an abstract concept too. I told you I don't understand abstractions. :lol: But it seems to me that the Fed's action only maintains the status quo rather than inflating the amount of currency and devaluing the dollar. In the absence of that action you would have had an overnight debt deflation that could have sent the dollar straight up. Abstractions abstractions.... I am so confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 AIG bak to $2 after hitting $4 yesterday evening. The market realizes that the cost of this loan will wipe out the shareholders even if the warrants aren't exercised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juggler Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 Man this Russian thing is fascinating. All triggered by their invasion of Georgia. No doubt about it. Those Atlanta rednecks are a tough crowd. 689542[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peek Paper Posted September 17, 2008 Report Share Posted September 17, 2008 The religious conviction that the dollar is going to collapse seems like any religious conviction to me. It's like the idea that when we die we are going to heaven, when the truth is that we are going into an incinerator or a box in the ground. See, to me, death is tangible while what happens after death is an abstraction, and I was never any good at understanding abstract concepts. Similarly it seems to me that in a world wide credit contraction where most of the debt is denominated in dollars when debt disappears overnight the money gets incinerated. (Actually it never existed in the first place. The credit in this case was fictitious capital.)? Suddenly there are less dollars around to pay off the other debt at the very moment that the debtors and the creditors are trying to get their hands on more dollars. OK, so that's an abstract concept too. I told you I don't understand abstractions. :lol: But it seems to me that the Fed's action only maintains the status quo rather than inflating the amount of currency and devaluing the dollar. In the absence of that action you would have had an overnight debt deflation that could have sent the dollar straight up. Abstractions abstractions.... I am so confused.? 689546[/snapback] Paranoids think black helicopters following them are real. Shrinks think they're dream-like abstractions of a diseased mind. We need real black helicopters filled with abstract dollars following every HoMoaner in the country to fix this mess. Dream on ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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