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5 Step Rally Process


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The sublime irony is that de HypTig would not exist without de internet. The internet will, ultimately, lead to a breakdown of all 'patriotic boundaries'. Knowledge will prevail, imo. Countries will become anachronisms. The Earth ain't flat anymore. The printing press destroyed the Roman Catholic Church hegemony which had prevailed in Europe (and elsewhere) for 5 centuries. De internet is truly gonna change everything, for everybody, forever.

 

Success!

gruff

 

I used to feel the exact same way gruff.

 

The web is the best thing that ever happened to -individual- humankind.

 

It's the first-ever "many to many" medium; as opposed to the usual "ONE to many" propaganda-machine mediums.

 

I have been using it for patent-research and many other things since about 1990. However, around the late 90's, I started to be simply amazed that the matrix hadn't "broken" it in some way.

 

As usual tho, their own megalomania blinds them to seeing an obvious threat when it's still young.

 

That has now changed. In the past 2 years, the pace of attacks on the internet has vastly accelerated. You'll see it in headlines all the time....the sly wording which implies the internet caused this lady to drown her kids....or this X to do that Y bad thing. Plus the onslaught of 'regulations'...plus the recent UN summit....very bad.

 

I don't expect the web to survive in its current 'freedom' format for more than another year or two.

 

So enjoy it while it lasts! :lol:

 

 

I'm really tickled with gold and silver. What a solid march back up to 405 !

And silver down only 6 cents now.

 

Oil also back up....down only 70 cents now.

 

Puzzled by the spoo/dow futures going so flat....expected more action...more decline, to tell the truth...but at least more movement back and forth. Nasty futures look like they're still creeping down.

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That sentence makes no sense whatsoever. First of all, as any first year economics student knows, the Fed does not create government securities. It buys and sells them either on the open market or directly from the US Treasury. Liquidity is added to the banking system when the Fed buys, and drained from the system when the Fed sells. The Fed rarely sells, but on average, buys from the system normally 3-4 times a month in amounts around $1 billion. (We are ignoring the repo market which is very temporary in nature and fluctuates roughly $10 billion either side of $25 billion held by the Fed. It's a non-issue relative to 700 billion in total assets.) The Fed also is a regular buyer at almost every Treasury auction, taking down 10% or so of every issue. However, this is almost always to roll over existing holdings. I have not seen them add to their holdings via this method at all in the last year.

 

This business about "tossing them in the trash" is journalistic license. It's just prose, meaningless, moronic, empty, gibberish, designed to inflame the masses, not inform them. The phrase, "selling massive amounts of new debt to cover the massive budget deficit" is just more gibberish. The Fed does not sell debt to cover the budget deficit. The budget deficit is the U.S. Treasury's. The Treasury sells the debt. The Fed is an occasional buyer, directly at the auctions.

 

The Fed has not moved to increase its purchase of government securities one iota., in spite of this years humongous massive Treasury auctions of new paper to fund the ballooning deficits. This is why the money supply is falling. The Fed is NOT buying enough paper. In fact, at last week's $27 billion auctions of all new 5 and 10 year notes the Fed took down the grand total of, are you ready for this.... doo doo dodoodoo doo doo, are you ready for this.... doo doo dodoodoo doo doo ....

 

ZERO!

 

Fed officials are, plainly and simply, lying through their assholes. They have been talking this game this whole damn year and been doing the opposite all year. If this guy actually told Crudele this, then he was simply trying to obfuscate and confuse the issue. I am shocked at Crudele for passing along this bunch of irresponsible horsecrap. Is it that he is ignorant, and didn't understand, or that he is just another mouthpiece for the mob.

 

You can follow the Fed's machinations daily in The Fed Feed Report It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download your Feed report and analysis RIGHT NOW!

Two Lifguards at Coney island

 

one says--Louie look out there someone is Crying for help==

 

LG#2:NAH HES JUST in some ocean anxiety fit--

 

lg#1 I'm telling you the guys drowning look closely

 

So both jump in lifeboat and paddle out to THE flailing man

And as they get closer and closer and closer they bEgin to hear a faint cry

 

C*** ,help me ,c***help, ca**.help Ca** HELp

 

LG 1&2;Wwwwhat the hell are you..........................

 

 

CAS*, HELPP HELP ,gIVE ME cash,CASH I NEED CASH YOU BASTARDS

 

BEARDRECH :ph34r: :ph34r: :shocked :)

 

SEASHORE-PARADOX LIQUIDITY LIQUIDITY EVERYWHERE AND NOT A DROP TO SPEND

 

DOCTOR GOING THROUGH MODERN DAY HOSPITAL NOT TOO FAR FROM WALLSTREET:wHATS THE MATTER WITH THIS MAN NURSE

TERMINAL TUBERCULOSIS

GIVE HIM A COUPLE OF GRAND AND SEE ME IN THE MORNING

 

hHATS WITH THE MAN NEXT TO HIM--FLOATING KIDNEY WITH CIHROTTIC LIVER

PRESCRIBE A CASHIERS CHEK FOR 200 THOUSAND IMMEDIATELY

AND SO ON

 

NURSE SEND A TELEGRAM TO ATLANTA CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL

STOP--wE NEED CASH --STOP---WE ARE SUFFERING A PANDEMIC LIQUIDITY CRISSIS DOKTOR KRANKHEIT

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Gruff, me short and hold? You should know me better than that by now! :lol: :lol:

 

Seriously though. The chart below is a glimpse of what I see.

 

Where do I start in explaining what the chart tells me. In a nutshell, the entire bear market phase from 2000 to the summer of 2003 actually occurred while Tidy Bowl Blue in the indicator panel was actually still rising while other cycles were in downphases ie the descending dark red and green cycles as well as a host of other shorter cycles. Cycles within cycles kinda thing, which is really the sole governor of the market's gyrations anyway regardless of other conventional methodologies. This may help to explain to many here why the 3-year bear market slid down the slope of hope somewhat slowly compared to bear markets of the past, such as 1929 as the most obvious example of a nice fast decline. Well guess what? Slowly is a word that will not apply to the next downleg of this ongoing bear market. Yes, ongoing bear market. It's the only conclusion that this chart portends, quite clearly. There isn't a hint of bullishness anywhere in it. Not one iota. No alternative counts. NADA!!!

 

Tidy Bowl Blue in the Indicator panel has stopped rising once it hit the ceiling at 100%. This seems to have occured around June of this year, which has quite coincidentally been simultaneous with the market losing any real upward momentum since June. 10 Spoo points a month since then. Big deal, raise the freaking flag bullies! I've scalped the equivilent of 10 Spoo points in an hour intraday many, many times since then, as many can attest in IDS, all shorts too. Once Tidy Bowl Blue rolls over, and yes it will sure as the sun rises and sets each day, Look Out Below! The it gets into synchronous gear with the dark red and green stuff still declining in the indicator panel. This can happen any time from tomorrow till March, April of '04, within the parameters of the much vaunted 4-year cycle there is so much talk about, which in a perfect world would be 2 years up and 2 years down all other things balanced. Of course, all other things are never balanced, cycles within cycles. A 4-year cycle in a bull trend could rise for three and a half years and be down for six months, sometimes less. We saw that in the late eighties and all of the nineties, a very strong bull trend. Things are different now. Given the chart below tells me this bear market is not even close to being over I see that this time the 4-year cycle will have a maximum of 1 and 1 half years up and....then....2 and one half years down, bottoming October '06 more than likely. Any failure before the maximum of 1 and one half years up would be even more bearish and result in a longer down phase of 2 and three quater to 3 years duration. In October 2006 Tidy Bowl Blue will still be declining and terminate another 4-year cycle up-phase early, after 1 to 1.5 years giving another long down-phase of 2.5 to 3 years. Lather, rinse, repeat till about 2012-2014. Then one can buy and hold for a new bull market up for 17 years or so, much like secular bulls of the past we are still too familiar with. With any luck the bull market won't be in diesel fuel for Hypertiger's burning pits that he envisions. My prediction at this moment for a buy and hold bottom will be the 78% retracement point of the entire market from the crash bottom of 1932 to 2000. On the chart this looks like about 2600-2700 on the Dow. At this point house prices will arrive at Sir John Templeton's target of 10% of today's values. On the price chart it also coincides with the 1987 top, a textbook pivot where resistance becomes support if I ever saw one, just over a bigger picture this time around.

 

While I'm speaking of Fibonacci stuff, there is a whole lot of interesting information on the price chart that Mr. Fibonacci reveals. A whole lot of information. I could stare at it for hours. It appears quite convincingly to me that Misters Fibonacci and Hurst were pretty amazing fart smellers! Doc too! Subscribe today! Really!!! :blink: :lol: :lol: :lol:

GRUFF

I DONT KNOW STATS FROM MY A**-BUT I THINK THAT THE UNIVERSE OF DISCOURSE REDUCES TO THE TIMES WHEN THE DOW WAS DOWN THREE YEARS IN A ROW THE ONLY TIME WHEN FOUR IS EVEN POSSIBLE-- SOOOOO

IF IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF TH EDOW 3 YEARS IN ROW ONLY HAPPENED ONE TIME THE CHANCES OF FOUR SERIAL DOWN YEARS IN A ROW AT THIS TIME IS %50 FIFTY PERCENT--

 

BELIEVE IT OR NOT--I DONT BELIEVE IT---WHO NEEDS YOUR ADVICE

 

BEARDRECH :ph34r: :grin: :cry:

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I apoligize Gruff--and i appreciate your advice for its in times like this that one shouldn't squander one's capitols--

 

beardrech--mayor of tiny town where Ibsens developement,containinng over one hundred rentable dollhouses is currently looking for a thousand tenants each one an inch and a half tall---

 

:rolleyes: :grin: :)

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Alan Newman just issued a special bulletin.

 

He's warning of a possible blowoff for the remaining 12 days of the year.

 

Says Fumble Managers will be in a buying hysteria to beat the indexers for the year end statement print.

 

Predicts that all remaining cash reserves will be blown during these last days of December.

 

Possible massive correction to occur in January as profits are locked in for the 2004 tax year.

 

If in fact this scenario plays out, stock market sentiment indicators will likely reach all time record extremes, never before found in stock market history.

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Alan Newman just issued a special bulletin.

 

He's warning of a possible blowoff for the remaining 12 days of the year.

 

Says Fumble Managers will be in a buying hysteria to beat the indexers for the year end statement print.

 

Predicts that all remaining cash reserves will be blown during these last days of December.

 

Possible massive correction to occur in January as profits are locked in for the 2004 tax year.

 

If in fact this scenario plays out, stock market sentiment indicators will likely reach all time record extremes, never before found in stock market history.

Yep. B)

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GRUFF

  I DONT KNOW STATS FROM MY A**-BUT I THINK THAT THE UNIVERSE OF DISCOURSE REDUCES TO THE TIMES WHEN THE DOW WAS DOWN THREE YEARS IN A ROW THE ONLY TIME WHEN FOUR IS EVEN POSSIBLE--  SOOOOO

    IF IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY OF TH EDOW 3 YEARS IN ROW ONLY HAPPENED ONE TIME THE CHANCES OF FOUR SERIAL DOWN YEARS IN A ROW AT THIS TIME IS %50 FIFTY PERCENT--

 

BELIEVE IT OR NOT--I DONT BELIEVE IT---WHO NEEDS YOUR ADVICE

 

BEARDRECH :ph34r:  :grin:  :cry:

Who needs my advice?

 

How about, literally, dozens of newbie traders who became too bearish and have blown out their accounts? What advice / target prices on any stk or mkt index did ye ever proffer on dis here board? Do ye even know where to find a chart image on de internet? Let alone, how to draw some lines upon said image!

 

Yr, obviously so clever with statistics... so I won't argue with yr 50/50 BS... try this... what is the likelihood of a 4yr downturn managing to drop below a previous 4yr low? Pls, refer to de chart for reference - not some BS "well, if dis did dat" kinda stuff.

 

According to yr statistics...the perecentage chance of mkt making a new high or a new low (over 200 years of history)... is 50/50...

 

Place yr bets!

 

A gentle reminder to not SHOUT AT US turns into Foxy's Rumble Food Fight. I luv it... and gotta laff!

 

Success!

gruff

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Feb gold bounced off 402.10 and is now at 406.50 down only 3.60

 

stock futures still up strong but the Saddam capture was already partially priced in to the market since the U.S. military has been closing in on him for weeks and has said repeatedly it was only a matter of time before they found him

 

if the capture had happened intraday there would have been many daytraders caught short and would have been a big squeeze, but with many out or flat for the weekend, especially after Dow closed above 10,000 the squeeze effect will be much smaller

 

S&P commercials are short, small specs huge long, bullish consensus extreme, etc.

 

more likely a sell on the news deal than beginning of a new rally leg

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Of course my GM to 0 was a joke. Target if it can't get above 54 is 18.50.

 

If Hyper is correct, GM is a candidate for bankruptcy. I don't think people respect how screwed we are if Hyper's scenario comes to pass. I know that everything will be done and is being done to prevent the day of financial reckoning. If it comes to pass, the sh*tstorm will be breathtaking.

as a matter of fact i consider hypers GM prediction of bankruptcy quite conservative---

 

They had to float a sixteen billion dollar bond issue!

And for what?? Laser beamed macinery?-robotic carousel grinders--???

High pressure water fender benders?????

Not on your ass--(does that sound correct?)

It was to bring pension funds up to snuff fagadsake!!!!!!!

Anyone investing in GM with that kind of obligation should be shot on si

site--

Its over--they lost another one to didrech

 

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: :cry:

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Feb gold bounced off 402.10 and is now at 406.50 down only 3.60

 

stock futures still up strong but the Saddam capture was already partially priced in to the market since the U.S. military has been closing in on him for weeks and has said repeatedly it was only a matter of time before they found him

 

if the capture had happened intraday there would have been many daytraders caught short and would have been a big squeeze, but with many out or flat for the weekend, especially after Dow closed above 10,000 the squeeze effect will be much smaller

 

S&P commercials are short, small specs huge long, bullish consensus extreme, etc.

 

more likely a sell on the news deal than beginning of a new rally leg

Yep. B)

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