Hypertiger Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Nobody will ever figure out that fractional reserve banking is designed to collapse. Phase 1 of fractional banking = Debt Inflation Once the maximum potential for Debt inflation is reached then... Phase 2 of fractional banking begins = Debt deflation (You/we are here) At some point the Infrastructure of inflation starts to collapse which leads to... Phase 3 "Bank"ruptcy and collapse of the banking system. Easy as 1,2,3 Every time without exception... No escape is possible. The Inflationary propaganda is powerful and it is working it?s magic. The psychology is intact, but soon deflationary reality will over power the ?magic? and poof? It will all be over. What is over? When someone you love dies, That feeling you get, will be the feeling that 100?s of millions of people are going to experience, despair and depression. Around the world? Who will get the blame? The victims. Every time without exception... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Shampoo. I get pretty confused myself. To me, the market is not saying "plunge" quite yet, as in next week. The Doc seems to be saying Q2 of 03 for a real downturn. Remember Doc is ALWAYS bearish, the closest he comes to bullish is being cautious. Machinehead has been right for the past month or so, he has been bullish and been RIGHT. The casino we play is nonsensical, that is, economic #'s really don't matter. P/E's are irrelevant. Bush and the FED may have finally figured out that without the market moving higher the economy will be in the crapper. The announcement of Friedman as T.S. is being underestimated by this board. Wall Street will love it, almost as much as they loved Rubin. Finally, tax cuts are coming. When the Replublicrats last cut the cap gains tax in 1995, the market rallied for 5 years. Does that mean the market won't crash next year? Hell I don't know. Watching the tape is the only way to play this game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Old Habits-I say this kindly-what you said about Mh being right the last month is a CROCK-On Nov. 7th-Dow-8771.01, Spx-923.76-yesterday-Dow-8645.77-Spx-912.23. Don't make assumptions keep a trading journal of your own and then You will Really no what is going on! If you don't knpw what has happened in the last month the market will crucify you! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Habits Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Brian - Perhaps it has been longer than a month, maybe since Oct. - 2 months. As I recall, he owned NDX Dec. futures. Since then, I imagine he has done quite well. I don't know what you mean about "assumptions". I've been reading this thread for quite some time, actually since Mark started. I don't believe I've ever heard you say " the market might go up tommorrow". All I hear from you is the market is going to tank. Now I know that you are a super trader that never gives in to emotions or makes a bad trade, but I would venture to say that I could go back and find alot of bearish quotes from you in Oct. and Nov. AFTER the market turned. I seem to remember GTNworse being chastised for having a bullish tint in Oct. MH has been steady. Believe me when I say, I know exactly what has happened in the past month. I get in trouble when I listen ONLY to outside noise from people who think they know what is going to happen, not what is actually happening. <_< Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Old Habits-If MH went long in Oct.-Agreed he made money if he stayed long he lost money over the last month. Yes- I am Bearish and Yes I have not gone long except for the odd scalp-the long term trend is DOWN as stated above if you were long in the last 30 days you lost money-so do you fight the trend or go with the trend-more money will be made following the big red arrow-sure you can get lucky for a week or two and give it back real quick as to GTN he never did go long he talked about it and still is but he's on the side. You sound indesicive and that is a disaster in the making-if you stay short you will be well rewarded if you stay long you believe in fairy tales-either way-Goo Luck-Trade safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 For what it's worth, MH is one of the best stoolies out there. If he is bullish then one should consider an up phase. (970) spx. My origanal thought was 958. That could still happen. Peace and good luck in your trading. P.S. Machine went long the sox near the low, therefore he is still way UP. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Brian you make excellent points but I sense they are emotionally committed ones. MachineHead is riding this one well. I would not underestimate the power of the Matrix at this juncture. No way. The appointment of a GS clone to work inside the Administration carries more weight than meets the eye. These people are utterly ruthless manipulators. Everyone is looking for Gold to break out now. Nonsense. There first order of business thru the Holiday will be to suppress Gold and relieve banking vulnerability. Don't forget who is in charge here. These people literally overthru the government in Dec 2000. The little idiot himself is not duly elected but has positioned himself into a place where he is now one of the most popular presidents ever. Look at how blatantly they staged the Market and Fear runup into the mid term elections. On every single front, political opposition is in full retreat from this facist. Full and unequivocal retreat. Even the Sodomizer of Bahgdad is on his hands and knees pleading for peace and apologising to the Kuwaiti greed merchants. Facism is the marriage of the armaments industry and the government. This marriage is now in full swing here in the U.S. They will do everything necessary to further consolidate their power. The firing of pass-the-potatoes Lindsey and O'Sqeal means that they are now turning their Orwellian Eye directly onto the Market. I would not underestimate their abilities to make black look white and white look black. They have consistently proven their worth in this arena. They now have the entire public freaking out and looking for Al Queda everytime someones muffler backfires. They have the entire public convinced that we are the peace lovers and Iraq is the 'agressor'. Talk about Alice and Wonderland. The only thing that short circuits their game plan in the near future is a geo political shocker. I have said this repeatedly and I will stick by it thru and into January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GTNWORSE Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Hey Guys, WOW Buddha you sure spoke for me. Could never had articulated it that well! Here a group of folks that, on the one hand, believes wholeheartedly in govt market manipulation. On the other hand, however, there seems to be a near consensus in minimalizing the effectivness of said manipulation. And that consensus seems to stem from the fact that said manipulation is designed to move the market in a manner contrary to where this group will profit from it. I firmly believe that the powers that be have a vested interest in keeping the market steady/up through year end. I will therefore not bet against them, no matter what some chart or indicator says. Yes even Doc's. This modest correction, which may in fact be over, has/will run it's course shortly. We are going to re-test and, quite possibly, exceed the highs of this rally. I think it's worth playing with a limited amount of capital. Santa will come to Wall St. It's the next major move that's commanding my attention. I believe we are going into Iraq and it will be in late Jan. The market will tank leading up to it. Major Piles has a strong stomach so he is able to accumulate his BEARX position slowly, even if the trend goes against him for a time. He will be correct fairly soon but I don't have the temperment for that. The next leg down will be one to play for all the marbles, and I still believe it will be the one to launch a new cyclical bull with the help of the powers that be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 All this manipulation crap is meaningless. If the manipulators were all powerfull we would be at all time highs. The manipulation is all about damage control. The boomers are aging and will not be more productive in the next ten years than the last ten. Shares will trade at historically low valuations before this bear market ends. Sell some over valued crap, buy some undervalued crap, relax, and then count the money. It works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 The Key to the fascist/capitalist ?system? is the sedation of the general population? 9-11 was cover for a ?derivative blow up? and the ?regime change? in Afghanistan. The next ?event? should be cover for the stock market crash and the ?regime change? in Iraq. Martial law and elections in 2004 cancelled. Plus massive enlistment? China is the goal? billions dead? and so on. "If this were a dictatorship, it'd be a heck of a lot easier...just as long as I'm the dictator..."- George W. Bush --Washington, DC, Dec 18, 2000, during his first trip to Washington as President-Elect Guess what? The whole thing will fall apart so quick it?s not funny? But don?t be fooled, the best case scenario from here is still not pretty? Be careful next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 I highly recommend this article on the Japanese recession.. http://www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1099 "The Nikkei stock market index fell more than 60 percent?from a high of 40,000 at the end of 1989 to under 15,000 by 1992. It rose somewhat during the mid-1990s on hopes that the economy would soon recover, but as the economic outlook continued to worsen, share prices again fell. The Nikkei fell below 12,000 by March 2001. Real estate prices also plummeted during the recession?by 80 percent from 1991 to 1998 (Herbener 1999). " This is how the Japanese government approached the problem.. "Between 1992 and 1995, Japan tried six spending programs totaling 65.5 trillion yen and cut income tax rates during 1994. In January 1998, Japan temporarily cut taxes again by 2 trillion yen. Then, in April of that year, the government unveiled a fiscal stimulus package worth more than 16.7 trillion yen, almost half of which was for public works.....Overall during the 1990s, Japan tried 10 fiscal stimulus packages totaling more than 100 trillion yen, and each failed to cure the recession." ....... "The Ministry of Finance and BOJ both bought government bonds from private holders increasing the amount the government owned to $2.22 trillion, which is 53 percent of the market for government bonds, while at the same time promoting a weaker yen (Herbener 1999). The Japanese economy was not stimulated out of its recession but instead experienced the two most negative years of GDP growth in the decade." ....... If it didn't work in Japan, why should it work in the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 First, a little HOUSEKEEPING If your avatar is showing up as a red x, go to "My Controls" and reset it. There are other settings there to personalize your board experience, as well. Second, let's confine discussion in Mark's thread to the economy and the markets. We have other forums on the board for less important matters like war, peace, and the meaning of life. See the list at left or on the front page of the board. There's also a topic jump menu in the lower right corner. Now to the matters at hand. Rayok, 2 posts above. You said it all my man! This is what Doc likes. You sum up the whole ballOwax in 5 lines. Bee yoo tee ful. Old habits- Doc likes that. The closest Doc gets to bullish is cautious. Very nice! Turdsday night Doc got a little cautious, and he remains so looking into the first couple days of the week. After that, KABOOM! But the market could change that at any time. That's why Doc watches and reports on the intraday charts twice a day in your Anals- after the close, pre market, and mid day. :wink2: If you are simply following Doc's comments in Intraday Stool you are only getting a partial picture of what Doc sees coming down through the Stock Proctoscope. About Wave 3- Senator, I am not now, nor have I ever been a member of the Elliott party. That being said, this is not Wave 3. Doc spent a little extra time in the current issue of your weak end Anals, and it sure doesn't look like Wave 3 here. I think it starts second quarter of next year. You have to see the charts and the commentary. Brilliant work by one of the world's greatest stock proctologists. The question is Are you ready for the next wave? and do you know what direction it will take? Your weak end Anals might give you a good idea. gtnworse- You know what Doc's indicators say? Your email address isn't on the subscriber list. You musta used a different one. About manipulation and the charts- The gummit, or other powers, have been manipulating markets since the beginning of time. The charts tell all. The manipulators are there. They have always been a part of the market and always will be. They are in the charts. Contrary to what some here have espoused, they do not have unlimited resources to make the markets do whatever they want. When they push prices too high, what happens? Sellers come out. What happens when they push to the limit of their resources? They have to back off. And yes sometimes they even have to sell. If they didn't, they would already own everything. Yes their influence is present. It always is. But they are not THE MARKET. They are PART OF it. It's in the charts. The US markets are not Korea. This speculation about what the manipulators are going to do until year end is a diversion. It can definitely keep someone preoccupied enough to keep them from making money. If that is your objective, learn to read the charts and forget all this crap about manipulation. Yes, it's baked in, but it's not the whole pie. As for them pumping up the money supply to whatever degree they want, sorry not possible. A little matter called inflation expectations and a problem with a fellow by the name of Gross. They've been pumping like crazy for two years and what has it gotten them? More pumping is going to matter? Nah. The markets rule. The charts tell all. Subscribe NOW! Be ready for the next wave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 11/29 may have been an "outside reversal day" which would not be good for the bulls Plus Richard Russell says the Dow Transports haven't confirmed this rally. - refer below http://www.thestreet.com/funds/supermodels...s/10057131.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 The game is checkmate next year, period... The stockmarkets will blow away like dust, what we have seen so far has been interesting but next year it will be fasinating... Just don't go to pieces before the "main event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted December 8, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Watch for a bounce next week: "There's a fairly major bullish divergence on the Nasdaq McClellan chart that's worth mentioning. Notice that the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator has dived under the November lows, while the Nasdaq itself is holding well above its most recent confirmed 3-bar low at 1019. As long as that 1019 level holds, this divergence suggests the Nasdaq will rebound from current levels and make another run at the recent highs. I've found this type of divergence, in which the oscillator breaks into new lows while the index itself holds, a much stronger signal than when the reverse occurs. For example, if the Nasdaq had broken into new lows while the McClellan held above its low, I wouldn't view it as a bullish divergence because the underlying index is displaying relative weakness. The current setup reveals just the opposite - that is, while the breadth of the Nasdaq is displaying weakness by breaking into new lows, the actual index is showing relative strength by not following suit." NYSE 5-day ARMS is near 8.0, which signals a short term bottom. Need to wait for this to go back down to 4.0 range before adding more shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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