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#46 try2win

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:17 PM

try2win, are you still with us?

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i was more sending my congrats to the ones who called it. people are on the other end of those calls though. i would think people should profit from whatever !
one day i owned DNA and the numbers were not good ... thinking to myself damn i wish more people got cancer ... it freaked me out a little !

#47 LeeWhee

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:17 PM

Crapvision reporters are complete morons......."wha, where's the FED!!!"

What?

What that wingohockingmoyamensing can the Fed do to fix this?

Answer:  Nothing.

Lower rates, that's the ticket!!

Answer: No it's not!  It has nothing to do with the problem at hand, nor will it fix it.

The only way the Fed could help is to buy all the CDO's, CMO's, LDO's, and other toxic waste that's out there and that will not (could not) happen.

Bottom Line:  The market is repricing risk -- and dat's dat bitches!!

Finally, maybe I'll be able to buy some long dated stuff that yields 10-15%.....ah, remember the Volker days!!!

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They weren't just calling for a rate cut. They were calling for a emergency gathering like LTCM. They want the FED to call all the kleptocrats to a secret meeting to figure out how to stick it J6P. With record bonus on wall street last year, a bail out of the super rich won't sit well. They'll spin it as helping the poor with some paltry sum going to aid "foreclosure" and the rest going back the WS mafia.

Not to mention all the key insider selling the past 2 years, if the press had any sense, they would start writing the mother of all kleptocrat's ball articles.

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I've read a few girlybullz jizzing over some minor "insider buying" stats. They claim it's a sign the "smart money" iz buying cheep schlocks. Most of this "insider buying", btw, is focused on the finaglers.

We saw a lot of insider buying in 2002. But many of these smartypants bought all the way down during the 40% final leg. They were proven right sooner or later, but they were early...to say the least.

Recall that insiders have been selling at the ratio of something like 1,000-1 for the past four years. They tend to start selling early too.

These "smart money" indicators don't work very well for a trade. They tend to be "Big Picture" tells. It might be months, or even years, until they matter.

Funny how the girlebullz ignore the selling all the way up (hello Bob Toll!), but jump all over the first nascent signs of buying.

It didn't work for the bears to fade insider selling and it won't work for girlybullz to embrace insider buying.
"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtor™."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#48 LeeWhee

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:24 PM

Crapvision reporters are complete morons......."wha, where's the FED!!!"

What?

What that wingohockingmoyamensing can the Fed do to fix this?

Answer:  Nothing.

Lower rates, that's the ticket!!

Answer: No it's not!  It has nothing to do with the problem at hand, nor will it fix it.

The only way the Fed could help is to buy all the CDO's, CMO's, LDO's, and other toxic waste that's out there and that will not (could not) happen.

Bottom Line:  The market is repricing risk -- and dat's dat bitches!!

Finally, maybe I'll be able to buy some long dated stuff that yields 10-15%.....ah, remember the Volker days!!!

View Post


They weren't just calling for a rate cut. They were calling for a emergency gathering like LTCM. They want the FED to call all the kleptocrats to a secret meeting to figure out how to stick it J6P. With record bonus on wall street last year, a bail out of the super rich won't sit well. They'll spin it as helping the poor with some paltry sum going to aid "foreclosure" and the rest going back the WS mafia.

Not to mention all the key insider selling the past 2 years, if the press had any sense, they would start writing the mother of all kleptocrat's ball articles.

View Post


The LTCM crisis and the current landscape bear no resemblance to each other.

Back then, LTCM was overleveraged at the worst possible time and got caught in one of them "black swan" thingies.

This time, instead of some one-off hedgie blowup that threatened to take down the markits, we are seeing the unwinding of years of well-documented credit abuses. The LTCM thing was a big deal, but it was isolated. The subprime/Alt-A/creditbubble is a big deal and it is not isolated or contained.

This will take longer to unwind and the aftermath will likely mean that credit conditions will be quite different for the foreseeable future. Does that mean no more LBOs, M&A, etc? Not necessarily. It just means that the environment has become much less hospitable for the sort of nonsense we've been seeing.

The question becomes: what sort of "Credit Abbondanza" premium was built into U.S. markits? So far it looks like 8%. But maybe it's 10% or 15% or 20%. Who knows.

With some schlocks, there was probably no premium, so those schlocks should be OK coming out of this. For other schlocks, it could be 50% or more. We'll find out in due course.

But for goofs to suggest that this is some LTCM deal where the crooks can just get the Fed to paper it over is absurd. This was the result of YEARS of abuses and is systemic in nature. It's not something you can toss money at and everything will be just like it was. Money (or rather debt/credit) is not the solution. In fact, it was the problem.
"I'm not a real estate bum. I wear diamonds and Rolexes. I'm a classy Realtor™."--- Liz "Flaming Orange" Seither, Clearwater, FL, who owes lenders millions of dollars in debts.

"Men do not desire to be rich, but to be richer than other men."---John Stuart Mill (1806-1873)

"When the music stops, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance. We're still dancing..."---Citigroup CEO Chucky "Master of Timing" Prince, 7/9/07

"Wall Street is a graveyard of geniuses."---Chriss Street, Treasurer, Orange County, CA, 7/27/07

"It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was my sitting. Men who can be both right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn."---Jesse Livermore

"You can kill a sheep just once, but you can fleece him 100 times."---Jeff Macke

"Stocks are no longer the weather glass of fortune, but a part of the mask employed to disguise the nation's own face to itself." ---Horace Walpole, 1782

#49 lucid and confused

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:26 PM

Here come's all the screaming for a bailout... If you are short you are fuked. The fed needs to heal the market woes, and make all irresponsible lenders and borrowers whole again. Hedge funds and ultra large investors using 10 to 1 leverage (usually to to cause short squeezes) will be bailed out. The market shall only go up.

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I think this may be a mathematical impossibility, but I'm purtty dumb

#50 Bungster

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:30 PM

Here come's all the screaming for a bailout... If you are short you are fuked. The fed needs to heal the market woes, and make all irresponsible lenders and borrowers whole again. Hedge funds and ultra large investors using 10 to 1 leverage (usually to to cause short squeezes) will be bailed out. The market shall only go up.

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I think this may be a mathematical impossibility, but I'm purtty dumb

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Having a little background in statistics...it is not impossible......but the odds are very very low on this one.... :rolleyes:
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#51 sarcastro

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:38 PM

Here come's all the screaming for a bailout... If you are short you are fuked. The fed needs to heal the market woes, and make all irresponsible lenders and borrowers whole again. Hedge funds and ultra large investors using 10 to 1 leverage (usually to to cause short squeezes) will be bailed out. The market shall only go up.

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I think this may be a mathematical impossibility, but I'm purtty dumb

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Having a little background in statistics...it is not impossible......but the odds are very very low on this one.... :rolleyes:

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They will try, but ultimately, they will fail. After all, who will be the ones to bail out the FED? They owe enough money as it is...

#52 elh

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:41 PM

By itself, the Fed can't do anything. If all the FCBs join together and agree on the same course, that could be a dangerous outcome.

Because of this, sometimes I wonder whether the solution is a political one as opposed to an economic one.

The Japanese and the US Depression are great examples of government creating extra hurdles to aggravate and extend their respective crisis.

#53 FauxCaster

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:45 PM

This just in: White House says "Housing appears to have bottomed out"
Source: Rob Portman, White House budget director on Kudlow
"WE ARE BEING KEPT ALIVE by the Entropic movement of Dark Matter(Sino-Nippo-dollar purchasing of $UST)---as soon as there is a ringing sound,a sign of an clogged artriosclerotic wormhole on the emergency fiat-meter it will end--dynamic equilibrium,will have been achieved;better known as death" -- beardrech (Mar 15 2006, 01:17 AM)

"There's a good chance he was drunk or drugged. Only an idiot would jump into the bear cage." -- Belgrade Zoo Director Vuk Bojovic (August 20, 2007).

It's like you're dreamin' about Gorgonzola cheese when it's clearly Brie time, baby. -- Hitchhiker (S.A.M. 1998)

Mar 28 2003: July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move...then the first leg of the bear is over ...many will be caught by surprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years [2007] ..."depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010. -- blackbelt (Mar 28 2003, 10:05 PM)

#54 potatohead

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:48 PM

DJ UK Govt Reports Foot And Mouth Disease Outbreak - BBC

I think they are talking about those perma bulls
"Don't piss on my back and tell me its raining!"

#55 elh

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:53 PM

I wonder if the Arkansas taxpayers mind paying this guy's pension.

_________________

http://www.sfgate.co.../a055328D46.DTL

Arkansas Couple Welcomes 17th Child

It's a girl — again — for the Duggars. Jim Bob and Michelle Duggar welcomed their 17th child, and seventh daughter, into the world Thursday.
.....
Less than 30 minutes after giving birth, the Duggars already were talking of having more.

"We'd love to have more," Michelle said, adding that the girls are outnumbered seven to 10 in the family. "We love the ruffles and lace."
.....
"We are just so grateful to God for another gift from him," said Jim Bob Duggar, 42, a former state representative. "We are just so thankful to him that everything went just very well."

#56 Bungster

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:58 PM

I wonder if the Arkansas taxpayers mind paying this guy's pension.

_________________

http://www.sfgate.co.../a055328D46.DTL

Arkansas Couple Welcomes 17th Child

It's a girl — again — for the Duggars. Jim Bob and Michelle Duggar welcomed their 17th child, and seventh daughter, into the world Thursday.
.....
Less than 30 minutes after giving birth, the Duggars already were talking of having more.

"We'd love to have more," Michelle said, adding that the girls are outnumbered seven to 10 in the family. "We love the ruffles and lace."
.....
"We are just so grateful to God for another gift from him," said Jim Bob Duggar, 42, a former state representative. "We are just so thankful to him that everything went just very well."

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What is it about those Arkansas politicans and sex? Geez keep it in your pants fellas.... <_<
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#57 Sudaca

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 05:58 PM

Unemployment rate... interesting chart..

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  • unemployment.PNG

Thanks, David

#58 Bungster

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 06:01 PM

Unemployment rate... interesting chart..

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Just replace dot com workers with...realtors, mortgage brokers, construction workers.....
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
"No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God." George W. Bush

#59 DrStool

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 06:03 PM

If this credit tightening continues it's going to affect more than home prices. Imagine if credit tightens in the auto loan market? How about tightening in student loans? All big ticket items are going to be affected.

there have been huge amounts of inflation in home prices and edumacation costs... both enabled by easy credit.

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Too many people bought homes they couldn't afford. Too many morons in college.

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Don't you mean "Too many morons out of college."? :lol:

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NO! He MEANT ToO many MORANS in coolidge!

Just like he sed!

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#60 elh

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Posted 03 August 2007 - 06:04 PM

The unemployment rate is a pretty useless statistic. It's another fabrication manipulated like inflation to serve political interests.

As long as there are three jobs and only three people are looking, unemployment is zero.





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