PandaBear Posted October 30, 2004 Report Share Posted October 30, 2004 WNDY, Dollar is at a key juncture here..either it slides relentlessly here..or it turns back up in short order for a pretty major IT turn.. Here is the Swiss Franc weekly..huge divergences on both short and long term MACD..they have turned down, but the only way to keep them down at this point is a relentless slide..any sideways or up action will turn them both back up, and if the short term turns back up and goes thru the zero line, you can pretty much kiss the dollar decline goodbye, at least for 18 months or so, anyway..If I had to venture a guess, I would say we turn back up..still early to really tell though..watching this arena very closely now.. The election will probably decide which way it breaks. I suspect a Kerry win will cause an upward bias for the dollar due to the perception that he will be more fiscally responsible. This would result in a short term bounce in the USD, and decline in gold and oil. If Bush wins then the USD could tank on the perception of "more of the same". This is one piece of news which could really affect the markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted October 30, 2004 Report Share Posted October 30, 2004 K-Wave: Mr. SuperBubble is up 7 days in a row. Time to short??? It should peak with HGX..the strongest stocks tend to go to new highs while the index makes wave 2 high..I think it's very close to time..if you like shorting thin $600 stocks.. :grin: I was looking the monthly charts of many of the homebubblers...some are starting to crack..while others still right near the high..typical of a peaking sector.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted October 30, 2004 Report Share Posted October 30, 2004 B4: the "Kurd zone" in northern Iraq has 30-40% of Iraq's oil. That's a LOTTA barrels...and bucks... It's the least tapped part of Iraq's reserves too...least explored as well. Methinks Israel wouldn't mind having 'em ...and neither would Turkey... Also, you attributed the Balkan slaughter to dubya, but the Balkan blood is on Clinton/Gore/Holbrooke/Clark hands, not dubya's. But hell, they all work for the same bosses anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted October 30, 2004 Report Share Posted October 30, 2004 The Turkey/Kurd situation is complex. Israel has actually had a very good relationship with Turkey for quite a while. Turkey has been trying to become a modern Muslim country. Israel sent rescue teams in after an earthquake (gratefully accepted by Turkey), Turkey has been a popular vacation spot for Israelis, etc. So they are trying not to p.o. Turkey. I feel for the Kurdish people. They had flourished during the no-fly-zone period -- a true developing democracy, with hard-working people who were developing their economy. They ought to be able to have a homeland, but the disastrous British-designed partition of the middle east prevented that. There never should have been an "Iraq" constituted of three major hostile ethnic groups -- the British openly said that they had drawn boundary lines so that these artificially created countries would be weak. Just as a small group of liberals called for world action to rescue the Afghani women from the depradations of the Taliban, before it was popular to do so, I wish that liberals would support the Kurdish people, who have been denied self-determination for centuries. It's a matter of justice for them. Shouldn't we be supporting a country which actually wants to be a democracy? The situation is far more complex than "bad guys/good guys." If only we could go back to the post-war divvying up and draw the lines more fairly....if only...... Okay, back to the market. Anybody short GOOG at 199? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted October 30, 2004 Report Share Posted October 30, 2004 "Anybody short GOOG at 199?" too rich a game for this stoolie Drano... are you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drano Posted October 30, 2004 Report Share Posted October 30, 2004 "Anybody short GOOG at 199?" too rich a game for this stoolie Drano... are you ? Too scared to short something like that. Got a 185 put when it was at 186. Bleah, trying to be a hero. Then chickened out on buying another when it was at 199 -- woulda been a hero! By the way, I concur with your comments re "hicks." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dozer Posted October 30, 2004 Report Share Posted October 30, 2004 "Anybody short GOOG at 199?" too rich a game for this stoolie Drano... are you ? Too scared to short something like that. Got a 185 put when it was at 186. Bleah, trying to be a hero. Then chickened out on buying another when it was at 199 -- woulda been a hero! By the way, I concur with your comments re "hicks." why thanks Drano. I appreciate that. Well that was an expensive put ! imho, I think you will do VERY well with it....next Wednesday. I was looking at picking one up yesterday, a 140, but never did do it. I'm thinking gurgle will be down to 80 soon enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted October 30, 2004 Report Share Posted October 30, 2004 Bin Laden Casts Shadow Over Stock Market Fri Oct 29, 7:18 PM ET By Megan Davies NEW YORK (Reuters) - A video appearance by al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden (news - web sites), in which he said the United States may face renewed attacks, cast a shadow over the outlook for the U.S. stock market, anal cysts said on Friday. Bin Laden, in a video shown on al Jazeera TV just four days before the U.S. presidential election, said the United States could face more attacks because the reasons for mounting the strikes of Sept. 11, 2001, still existed. The news broke after the U.S. stock market closed on Friday. The bin Laden video appearance -- his first in more than a year -- makes the outlook murkier for stocks, when Wall Street begins trading on Monday. After the market closed on Friday, S&P 500 futures initially inched lower and then rose. But there were few traders around late Friday after the closing bell. "If the markets were open, it would be a temporary downward impact, then dissipate." said John Davidson, president of Partner Re Asset Management Corp., when asked about the impact of bin Laden's threats. ================= Sharp-eyed readers can infer that if prices drop, they should BUY, BUY, BUY and they will be rewarded when prices continue their inexorable march to da Moon, Mars and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfield 8 Posted October 30, 2004 Report Share Posted October 30, 2004 I think that the Kerry landslide is going to shock and awe, and discredit the pollsters in the process. You are forgetting a key point. The Republicans control the voting machines in every decisive state. Do you think it was happenstance that Diebold built machines without a paper trail, while other companies in non-key states built machines with a receipt ? The CEO spent a nice four day weekend at Crawford shortly before Bush announced support for new machines. Please see the 2002 elections in Georgia and Minnesota where Diebold succeeded in stealing Senate seats, thus giving the Senate a Republican majority - without which most of this destructive legislation would not have passed. These were called "upset" elections where polls gave the Dem up to a 9 point lead on the morning of the election. Then there was Missouri. If they will not stop at murder, where will they stop? Kerry may very well win in a landslide. But we will never know it. And never be able to prove it. These bogus polls calling it a tied race are essential to the White House. It is the only plausible way they can claim to have won when they will have stolen it. Again. The only way that the top 20% of the population can outvote the bottom 80% is if the votes of the 80% are not counted. get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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