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Still short. Got a margin call but, thanks to MS's downgrade of XLNX it dropped and negated the call. I will cover only what I need to if I have to. I'm with Brian4, End, et.al. who feel we are too close to bail out yet.

 

Bloodied But Unboweled

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Thank goodness I limited by positions by size and risked only what was expendable. I saw the textbook right answer over and over again, and just watched. Valuable lesson. Glad I haven't been wiped out learning it.

 

Sometimes, Mr. Fokker, I believe you reside in my head. I'm attending the same classes as you.

 

In response to the original inquiry: "Short. Stupid. Sad."

 

At least there's that rusty ol' nail "Event Risk" to hang one's hope on. Someone sensibly asked on IDS this week, "I hope there's a good rason why AG is doing this." Don't think it was Soup (I think he instead just cursed the name alone!).

 

I think there is good reason, we aren't privvy to it, but it's out there. Lurking.

 

It's not looking good for bears right here. But then, I was at a poker game 3 weeks ago: 40 guys and a $100/entry. My buddy made it to the final table of 8... and then there were 7... 6... 5... 4... 3... and then just 2 of 'em.

 

Ante had already reached $100 by that stage of the game.

 

When it reached just two of 'em left, my friend had $100.

 

His opponent had $3,900.

 

My friend was all-in with his $100 ante for a hand. He won. $200. He won a couple more quick antes, and established himself a minor stake of $500.

 

An hour later, after the most incredible display of poker I think I'll ever witness in person, he walked away the winner.

 

Swear to god: I sat right next to him.

 

We bears still have chips at the table.

 

At this stage, maybe just enough to ante.

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anyone alive out there?

 

 

I'm lonely!...am I the only one left stupid enough to go short?...anyone still short?

Closed my last short position two weeks ago.

 

Too late - took a horrific loss.

 

Scored a double this week on DIA calls.

 

Don't like to post my dong plays here, don't want to upset anyone. We're in a bear market, but the action seems decidedly boolish to me. Pull backs are bought within minutes. Companies release less than stellar earnings reports, sell off then bounce immediately. I know its not over 'till its over but 965 seems like a razor thin line in the sand.

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Yo statist greenspew, I am sitting with cash in hand,gold coins in a safe with a house fully paid. I aint spending a penny, will not even replace these shoes that have a hole in 'em. Screw your debt nightmare, there is a specil hell for you.

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someone mentioned that greenspew and statism did not fit. Well I do not think the world has ever seen more govt intervention and state central planning , but then what the hell do I know. I have holes in my shoes.

I agree with your sentament about gov intervention etc. But the FED isn't part of the government.

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I had Internet problems all day today, but that gave me the chance to spend time over the charts.

 

For the Nasdaq...

 

33 weeks in a rally mode is the largest rally, time wise, since the beginning of the bear. Gann followers (if there is anyone here) know that is called "Time overbalance" and it indicate "trend change". Last October the bear ended and what happens from that point forward, correction of the bear leg or new bull, is up for grabs. One thing is certain. The rally will have to be proportionate in time and price to the drop from March 2000. Today the Qs closed above the previous pivot high from 12/1/02 (weekly basis). That's bullish. Higher highs and higher lows. Next week is 144 weeks from 9/1/00, which might put the breaks to the rally for now.

 

For the SPX.....

 

There will be a drop towards the end of July. I don't believe it will be as dramatic as I thought it will be. 50% retracement of the advance since March 12th, or so. After that another rally till end of October....I say that over and over again.

 

965 is a "good" level. Time wise, today was a pivot, Monday is pivot, yesterday was a pivot. Trying to pin point the exact date is useless right now. We are within a time window for the turn. The fastests moves occur towards the end of the trends. The top could have been yesterday it could be Tuesday. If it's not early next week then next turn is 6/16. I have to repeat....There will be a drop....and it will be fast. The later it comes, the faster it will be. The issue here is not to be mistaken for a new bear cause it won't be one....at least I don't think it will be

 

Have a good weekend...

 

...and treat this info, as what it is....."info"....use it...or ignore it....it's the same to me. I only post because there are people who want to know what I think, so don't get upset if my views do not fit yours ;)

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I've never seen such strong stock market action in a long time.

 

We were idiots for not going long back in March.

 

http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html

Not that I'm G-d's gift to trading but, I haven't been in the position to have a margin call since the summer of 2000 (I didn't do much in 2001). It's hard to reconcile alot of the TA with the market action but . . .there you go. Like I said before Mark, you and Buddha were calling it accurately since before the "war."

You were right about something else. It's tough trading against your government.

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