Doug Noland Returns

[dozer]

GF - you mean Canadian cash; right?

 

 

but of course!

 

or maybe aussie-bucks....or NZ ??

 

or better still, some of those nice canuck silver maple-leafs!

 

interesting to read here last night about the similar cost, but wildly different denomination of leafs and eagles...huh...

[Ags Nightmare]

The end in this sector must be near. best,buddha

 

Thanks for checking in Buddha. I always look forward to reading your posts and think your literary oration is gifted.

 

Ironic your commentary on housing followed so closely behind the glue sniffing style of mo mo monkey. Not saying he ain't knocking em out of the park but it just seemed odd.

 

This is so 1999 it's surreal. I feel like Sherman and Mr. Peabody walking into the "Way Back Machine".

 

Ag

[GregFokker]

There a great question- sell CDN cash for silver and gold bullion? Other than the $GOLD:$CDW charts on Stockcharts, that's a tough Q lately. If HUI's going to drop in USD, will it rise in CDN?

 

Lady Fokker beckons...

[depends]

When I was in Montreal last month - the first night I was

tipping the hotel staff with those two dollar coins - the

ones like a doughnut with a butter cream center - two

or three at a time - I thought they were 50cent pieces.

 

They got me on that one!

[EddieBear]

When I was in Montreal last month - the first night I was

tipping the hotel staff with those two dollar coins - the

ones like a doughnut with a butter cream center - two

or three at a time - I thought they were 50cent pieces.

 

They got me on that one!

That happened to me in Amsterdam a few years back. A heroin addict (I think) panhandled me, and I pulled a copper coin out of my change. Turned out to be 5 guilders. The guy was astounded, then moved away real quick.

[depends]

This chart didn't budge.

 

I was disappointed that my demand for curbs

by 11:30 was ignored, but still my trading

went very well. Shorts worked. Longs worked.

Scalps galore.

 

I entered long ECA and scalped it as it needs to

work to get throught the 200 ma. Will likely get

a pull back or two before the stab through. I will

re-enter above the 200 once it gets there for sure.

 

I have been playing RCl for a week now. It has been

squeezed and dropped a bunch. I have been in and out

for scalps at least four times so far. I'd round trip it but

dont trust the long side in such a troubled stock.

 

Also SYMC has been in a nice range for a few days now

and I got it three times on the short side.

 

This trading range has been good for me.

 

^BKX closed below 950. Not good. No leadership there.

 

BPT has been a great long for weeks now. No

Xdate till Jan so I expect more upside till then unless . . .

well you know.

 

Oh - and got YELL right at before the big drop at the close today. Covered long on CC. what a screamer today.

Scalps Scalps Scalps. 1%, 2% enough. Best day in

weeks.

 

Since I called for a crash today and it didn't happen

(except for a little one in the buck) I will admit I was

wrong. Now it's someone elses turn to call for a crash.

Step up. Make the call. One day soon someone will be

famous for making the call.

[Guest]

Pluvia & the Pluvia research organization have been doing securities fraud research on the internet since 1996. For security reasons we operate under a cloak of anonymity. There are multiple persons performing research that is posted under the nom de plume "Pluvia". Nobody will ever know who we are. We have always operated that way and always will. We suggest shareholders spend their time looking at the research we present rather than attacking the messenger. If our research does not hold up - obviously we have no credibility.

 

Sounds like a load of crap to me.

[Tower]

AB just posted this on stool's gold. ?Fraud watchers "pluvia" all over IVAN

 

 

 

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/m...?msgid=19476469

I heard that Marc Faber is a director of IVAN.

 

Highly unlikely that there is any fraud, if he's involved.

 

Might want to check the SEC records to find out for sure.

Marc Faber is not a director.

 

Page 49. http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/110...o09104e10vk.htm

 

BTW, is there a way to turn off those random !$*? wav files this site imposes on you?

[anoscope]

Last night Bare posted a rambling discourse about how something was up with the call up and mobilization of 110,000 reservists and National Guardsman-well I agree with Bare-something is up. A normal rotation of troops is done gradually not en mass as this is going to be. Plus when the boys coming home go back to their bases after their leave they still have to paid, fed and clothed as do the 110,000 who are being called up. That will push the deficit thru thru the stratosphere and even Shrub ain't that dumb horrendous extra cost in an election year would have Congress and the Senate eating him for lunch-nope something else methinks -another adventure is in the offing. Stay tuned- the World and the markets can't take another adventure. Looks to me like the inmates who are running the institution may be seeking another dust up to boost GDP-or am I just to damn cynical?? Trade Safe!

I was told by a family member to watch africa.. not sure 'what', but africa.

[wndysrf]

I'm still holding partial position long in miners, commodity fund and CDN resources, bought a year and a half ago, deep in the black. Just can't shake the similarities between the way the NQ and the HUI are trading. Seems like everything is expensive now, from tech garbage to miners to commodities to bonds to real estate. I'm really itchy at being mostly back to cash and watching the miners rock n roll in the meantime. I figure that HUI will do much better than the NQ and ES on the way down, but I have a tough time picturing it going up s/t instead of down.

 

But, then, all of that liquidity created in the past couple of years won't just disappear, so it might flee to... I guess, bonds and, to a lesser extent, miners and commods.

 

Dunno- going back and forth on it. But I'm thinking that cash will be a great thing to own for the next few months.

anal cysts should be cautious in dismissing the fledgling commodities Bubble. After all, we have witnessed over the previous years scores of incipient Bubbles develop into spectacular ones. - Doug Noland

 

Fokker........

 

Machinehead and I plan on playing the coming commodities boom. It is clear from Noland's piece that we are in for a massive spectacular, inflationary, global blowoff.

 

Not sure how stocks will participate in this scenario, but there is no question that the biggest play will be gold and silver.

 

Gold and silver is the ultimate inflation play. Forget about alternative currency motives. HedgeHogs will be gaming it big time to hedge off inflationary damage to the Giant Paper Pyramid Portfolios they are Riverboating.

 

I sense a huge boom in the works, worldwide. The U.S. may be nearly spent, but the Rest of the World is just getting cranked up.

 

I plan to game the gold and silver trade to the max.

[Guest]

John Loftus now on Batchelor Alexander WABC reports: A student of Nuclear Engineering at McMaster University Hamilton, Ontario. has disappeared along with 180 pounds of nuclear waste stolen from the university's nuclear reactor. This happened several months ago but an alert has been ordered tonight in the USA and Canada. His name is ? Adnan al-ShoukriJumai, 27 years old, a Saudi national. A search is underway. The fear is that they may hijack a cargo plane in Canada.

[Pee Brain]

Take any residential street in Manhattan Beach, Redondo Beach or Hermosa Beach.

 

Each street has a minimum of 3 spec homes under construction. Luxury spec homes.

 

Unlike the Inland Empire where the Lennar's of the world are putting up McMansions in planned new subdivisions, the beach city buildups are usually done by local mom and pop home builders who have connections with the local city commision to grease the permit process.

 

Three years ago, the builders would raise equity from wealthy neighbors and borrow money via a construction loan to finance the construction. The house would be finished, sold, construction loan paid off, and the builder and the investors pocket the profits. These "wealthy" investors had real cash. Idle cash, just laying around finding a place other than bank CD's or the stock market.

 

Three years ago, only a handful of "teardown" to "spec home" properties were built each year.

 

Today, the scene has morphed into something unimaginable.

 

Everybody and anybody is clamoring to get in on the action. Builders used to pay $350,000 for postage size teardowns, now they are paying $900,000 for these lots.

 

Worse, many people are getting 2nd mortgage refis and using credit card cash advances in order to "participate" in these equity sharing deals on the spec houses.

 

The builder's main problem now is not building the house. Or selling the house. His main problem is finding more teardown properties so he can put the huge pile of leveraged cash to work offered by his father in law, the next door neighbor, the massage therapist, the owner of the gym, and the credit card gamer, all wanting a piece of the action.

 

As a result, builders have chased lot prices up to the $900,000 area.

 

I know one guy who borrowed $120,000 off 10 credit cards and invested with a builder in a double lot oceanfront spec house. Cost of land and construction: $4.5 million. Current asking price: $8 million. If the property sells for $8 million, he doubles his money.

 

Home prices are going parabolic. Not because of the choice locations, but because Credit Bubble Dynamics has created a frenzy of price appreciation. People are buying these custom houses because they are going up 25% every 6 months.

 

i think it might help to point out to those in other areas of the US that "FULL" lots in manhattan beach are a whopping 30'x90' = +/-2,700 sf total. thats about $330/sf? of course, 1/2 lots can probably be expected to command higher $/SF prices.

[Pee Brain]

But, then, all of that liquidity created in the past couple of years won't just disappear, so it might flee to... I guess, bonds and, to a lesser extent, miners and commods.

 

Dunno- going back and forth on it. But I'm thinking that cash will be a great thing to own for the next few months.

 

some of the liquidity/equity will in fact disappear as values adjust down... unfortunately, the debt and debt service will remain. for those no leveraged in real estate, the value of their F trucks with 100% financing will continue to depreciate as well as suffer from lower blue book values as owners turn the keys over to lenders and glut the used car market.

[Stoolander]

When I was in Montreal last month - the first night I was

tipping the hotel staff with those two dollar coins - the

ones like a doughnut with a butter cream center - two

or three at a time - I thought they were 50cent pieces.

 

They got me on that one!

Until the recent rally in the CDN$ (or is it move down in the USD$ ) that would have been about right

[alborz]

Something is amiss, don't know what but something. Greenspan frontruns the insider news on the employment report today with his appearance and prediction yesterday.

Buddha, thanks for your always entertaining forensic analysis. I think we are going to go down as well, but we'll be walked down slowly - until new year. This is so because if I were in the matrix's shoes I'd worry about 2 things now: how would I prop up the market in '04 and what would I do about the deficit. Both can be somewhat mitigated by walking the markets down and forcing the sheeple to take profit. The lower market preps it for the next year election erection and the profit taking will generate tax revenue. I think all the hoopla about Putnam is going to be about forcing people to take profit for '03. So it'll be a one step forward and 2 steps back for the next 1.5 months. That's of course assuming an omnipotent and omnipresent matrix. The fringe benefit would be to keep the housing market afloat a few more months by keeping the bonds in check. Too many good reasons to not shave 10% off the market. Didn't a stoolie post a news wire a few days ago about the fed proclaiming that they have met their target?