B4 The Bell Frieday August 6

[trinharder]

DJ Fed Funds Futures Slip To 85% Chance 25 BP Aug Hike

[trinharder]

DJ Fed Funds Futures See Just Over 50% Chance 25 BP Sep Hike

[Hiding Bear]

Anuthuh muy curioso thing that Ranger Rick pointed out --

 

Fed funds fucutures still indicate a 25-bip hike next Tuesday, though September's becoming more of a "horse race."

 

BUTT (_)_) -- what Uncle Al needs as cover to back off on Tuesday's hike is -- get this -- RISING EARL PRICES -- which he regards as a kind of market tightening, obviating the need for action on his part.

 

That is shockingly inverted logic. It means accommodating inflation, which would have given Paul Volcker a heart attack.

 

But the bizarre result is that to kill next week's rate hike, the Matrix needs to drive up the EARL PRICE to fifty dollah.

 

As urban denizens used to say in the old underground comix -- "Man ... white folks sho' is crazy!"

You hit the crux of the Fed's problem - their solution to paper overing previous problems was pumping up the monetary base, and hopefully the money supply, which caused inflation.

 

To deal with the negative effects of that inflation, they attempt to add even more money into the financial system.

 

To paraphrase Alice in Wonderland, they have to run faster and faster just to stay in the same place.

[Guest]

when I hear the name John McCain I think of feingold

 

The attack on the First Ammendment 

 

Freedom of poltical speech.

 

What dont you understand about free?

Please ... the official name of that "law" is McShame-Slimegold.

 

The "gag period" for citizens kicks in around Sep. 2, I believe.

 

Can we still hang a sign on our fence?

Sky writing? Aerial banners? Blimps?

[HiHat]

the lid on the FEAR box has barely been lifted. these kinds of swings into

potential melt down, always bring to forefront the WISDOM of holding

in hand Gold and Silver.......physical.

 

what is often overlooked is that if Society.........makes the trek through

Death Valley..........many assets will NOT make it to the other side..period.

 

Maybe Gold is $200............in the aftermath...........it still will have the

PURCHASING POWER.........of perhaps even greater than now.

 

the point...is that one will have, said purchasing power, in event of

cataclyism

 

that's INSURANCE................................................................................

[Ned38]

So between the 32k jobs and the downward revisions of the previous months I guess I was right when I called for ZERO new jobs LOL

[Lock Limit Down]

LLD, I also understand RE has remained almost surprisingly strong, so far.

 

Yet from a personal POV, I'm hearing a slightly different story. I have a brother over there who has had his house on the market since before the beginning of the year. He's dropped his price, but it's not moving. It's a little surprising, because he is a consummate salesperson and has successfully sold a couple of previous properties, even in difficult markets.

 

I suppose it's very much a regional thing.

 

Since he's planning to use the equity to finance consumption expenditure and has no savings - at age 37 - my personal belief is that essentially being forced to stay in a house that is partially rented out and covering the mortgage, is probably not such a bad situation, in the big scheme of things.

 

By the way he attributes my gloom and doom economic views to an excessive interest in financial matters, while I would say the opposite of him.

 

From the Guardian

Thanks much

That is exactly what I was looking for

 

You gotta wander when POR pays a visit to the Brits.

[Guest libertas]

Quick question for those that follow central bank action in Britain.

I understand they have raised rates 3 times now including an increase this week. The bubble in housing in Britain challenges the insanity on this side of the pond yet from what Ive heard demand has remained strong as well as prices. Is this true? And has there been three rate increases?

 

Great Feed report again Doc

Treasury auctioning 51000 MILLION in notes next week. 29000 MILLION DUE and 22000 MILLION to run the country. With further down in the market they are going to need some serious help. Those in POWER must be very concerned with the brewing powder keg.

There have been five increases since November.

 

Housing prices are off about 5% from their peak. Demand remains strong as far as I can tell.

FIVE Wow...So much for 3 steps and a stumble.. Stock market hasnt really reacted .

Are they as creative in financing motgages as in the States?

TIA

Adjustable rate is the norm in the UK, but I haven't heard any of the negative amortization stuff or zero down coming out of there. But I really don't know for sure.

[Drano]

So between the 32k jobs and the downward revisions of the previous months I guess I was right when I called for ZERO new jobs LOL

The unemployment situation is far worse than even most of us think. Just read Sleddog's daily compilation. Many of the job cuts have not hit yet -- for instance, St. Paul Companies is laying off three THOUSAND employees in St. Paul MN. No one has been pink-slipped yet. But everyone who works there is worried and spending has ceased -- rightly -- from these people.

 

Domino effect -- small businesses especially are feeling it. I walked past a deli at lunchtime downtown yesterday. No customers.

[DrStool]

When an email notification is sent out to my outlook express by the anals.."stool pigeons wire message"... Can one just hit reply through outlook to respond to the sender directly?

TIA

The sender is the message board. All replies go to the admin, which is me. If you want to email any individual member, do so from the members' list. Or from the email icon in their post. If you know the user name, you can send from My Controls.

[Lock Limit Down]

The botton of the channel S and P 1165ish should be tested today

if that lets go I am on crash watch

[DrStool]

Bong Yields, Buck Smashed!

 

Where's The Bottom?

 

Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit.

[longOnUranus]

Holy Sh*t.......!!!!!!

 

(he said rubbing the sleep out of his eyes)

 

glad I kept a few puts in the oven...

 

ya think someone yesterday knew about this report ????????? !!!!!!!!!!!

[machinehead]

The botton of the channel S and P 1165ish should be tested today

if that lets go I am on crash watch

Today's open will definitely break below the 2004 low of 1076.32.

 

We're back to Dec. 2003 prices in the S&P.

 

The year-ago close (Aug. 2003) was around 965. So the 12-month ROC is still positive. I would give about 80% odds that 12-month ROC will be negative by December, maybe before, as the 12-month-ago prices surge higher (that part's already baked in the cake).

[brian4]

Good Morning Crew- well this is what dreams are made of- the gunfight at the OK Corral and YOU are there live and up close. You will remember today a long, long, time. Crash Alert-watch 1074 and then 1068-break 1068 look out below...Window at the Bell for 90 minutes-the Chairthrower is in da House..what more could we ask-Helmets on, seats in the upright position..Buckle up!