Mark 2 Market Weak End

[depends]

I can't remember any of the concerts I went to. . . sorry.

But I went to a lot of them.

[Guest]

Hyper, your latest tonight has me more convinced than ever.

 

The two riverboaters I work with are in debt up to their eyeballs. One just refi'd again and is talking of buying a second house to rent out (claims his neighbors all have second homes). His wife is "making" him buy a minivan, that is coming in the next week or two. He just bought a digital camera today for $1k.

 

The other one got his ears burned off by his irate wife because he didn't pay off the home depot card. She was in home depot, to buy more stuff. They just finished up repainting their daughters room...for close to $650! For a room! He has plenty of other credit cards and owes on all of them, yet eats lunch out every day and dinner too. He's probably close to losing his job and knows it, but so far hasn't altered any behaviors that may change his fate.

 

Both of these guys are clueless as to what is happening behind the scenes in this country. As I speak with more and more people I am coming to realize that they're all sheeple with no critical thinking ability regarding the economy. Nobody understands the Fed.

 

Today I had to call Dell to get some parts shipped. I spoke to a guy in India. He spoke perfect, flawless english and had a british accent to go with it. After our business was done I quizzed him. Extremely polite, remembered what I told him, efficient, and he received all his schooling in India. Phone quality was also good, I believe they are using voice over IP technology now for the links.

 

Anyone working a call center in America is doomed. Companies can get a better, smarter, more polite, and more articulate employee for 20% of what an American costs. Plenty of blame to go around for that too. I'm sure AT&T is laying even more cable to make such outsourcing possible.

 

That said, it seems like the major bleeding here in sillycon valley has stopped for now. My apartment complex (a big one) was losing tenants and was running a 25% vacancy rate. Rents have been lowered and deals made. The catch is that the tenants moving in are definitely poorer than before, and some units are being rented to four adults (for a one bedroom place). People are optimistic that the valley won't get any worse, and all are wishing for a return to to the glory years of 1999-2000. The big But is that now everyone is very fearful of losing their jobs. Hope for the future is being replaced by despair for some. Home prices still going up though, so the point of recognition is still a long ways off.

[ConfusedAss]

Big Wave: solid, well-written, heartfelt post. Thanks for sharing.

What he said -- brought a tear to my eye.

[Gamma]

i spit in Wimpy's direction... ? ?he has declared war on savings, thrift, ?prudence and common sense.

 

BTW, i was in canton in the 1980's and it looked like a low-grade tijuana. ?i assume its much better now, but id have never considered living there, even if they were accepting PeeBs.

The gov't and Wimpy are telling everyone that "black is white".

 

The disinformation is as bad as in any country I've been to, including ones with

real or defacto dictatorships.

 

Btw, back in the 1980's most streets in Beijing were dirt roads. The coastal cities are changing very rapidly. The further inland (west) one goes, the more things are as they were.

 

Shenzhen today in Guandong (Canton)

 

f-san,

 

thats amazing. where are all the bicycles?

Shenzhen now has underground railways.

[Fukui-san]

I, in partnership with 2 people, own a small manufacturing business which makes a semi-specialized, low tech part used in the replacement of roof top HVAC units. We design the part specifically for the application, but can then resell it again when the opportunity arises as these applications can repeat. Nothing fancy, plasma cut or shear various types of sheet metal, break into shape, and weld together. Certain barriers to entry exist as the design of the part requires an expertise that is more experience than knowledge, but the part is VERY important to the proper operation of the new HVAC unit so we are compensated well, 40-50% gross margins. (Of course when we f*ck-up, it's fixable but expensive.. Have 15 shop workers and last nite, we had a big project that had to ship by 1:00 am in order to meet the customer's expected delivery time in Oklahoma. Freight carrier is standing by and my guys are working like spartans in 100 degree, 100% humidity conditions. I'm wilting just standing in the shop. As I watched these guys, who make from $8-14 an hour, working with such purpose and getting it on the road by Midnite, I thought about how what we were doing was such a basic and fundamental way of making money. Since the beginning of commerce,men and women have turned raw materials into finished goods employing tools, labor, experience, and ingenuity. Like the trading of gold or silver, this has been a constant thru the ages. In the Hyper scenario, this will also survive. During the day, I sit in my office and occasionally trade as time permits and when I make some coin, I feel good (as Fast Eddie said, "money won is twice as sweet as money earned), but not like when we ship a project successfully and the funds clear. Maybe I'm a sucker, but I like the thought of being part of what's left of American manufacturing.

 

Some times when we bicker on CS, I think of my guys covered in sweat and grinding in the heat and then I remember how good we have it.

Each one of your guys is worth 10,000 traders.

[chibear]

I remember Black Monday pretty well. I was dabbling in futures at the time. (Small amounts, and ended up losing small amounts)  I had some IRA stock funds as well but didnt' touch them. My focus wasn't on stocks, it was on bonds.

Jorma,

 

I was a local trader in the Major Market Index (Maxi) pit at the Chi Board of Trade during the '87 crash. Someday I'll write something longer about it. I remember that Friday, (Black) Monday, Tuesday sequence as though it were yesterday. We were the only futures pit that remained open. On Monday, things got so bad that many traders covered their badges for fear that dying longs would card your badge as buying from them, hoping to halve their loss in arbitration Tuesday morning.

 

On Tuesday, before the turn came, many figured the DJI was down to around 1100-1200 based on the estimated reopening prices of some of the bigger stocks. There was great pressure on us to close like all other futures, but (then) CBOT chairman Mahlmann refused. The low came on a big Eastman, Dillon liquidation sell order brought into the pit by Muni Bond star Mike Farina. Farina's selling knocked the futures down about 19 handles. When he was done, the market magically levitated and was up 100 handles within 15 minutes. That was the low. Somebody (the boyz?) knew that the crisis had ended and there was noplace else to buy at that moment.

 

I bought 1 contract, left the pit, and was ahead about $15K by the time I got up to the office, 10 minutes later.

 

Various "safeguards" adopted after the crash are the basis for todays commonplace manipulation by the government. It's just part of the game, has to be taken into account, but won't be going away, I'm afraid.

[Fukui-san]

i spit in Wimpy's direction... ? ?he has declared war on savings, thrift, ?prudence and common sense.

 

BTW, i was in canton in the 1980's and it looked like a low-grade tijuana. ?i assume its much better now, but id have never considered living there, even if they were accepting PeeBs.

The gov't and Wimpy are telling everyone that "black is white".

 

The disinformation is as bad as in any country I've been to, including ones with

real or defacto dictatorships.

 

Btw, back in the 1980's most streets in Beijing were dirt roads. The coastal cities are changing very rapidly. The further inland (west) one goes, the more things are as they were.

 

Shenzhen today in Guandong (Canton)

 

f-san,

 

thats amazing. where are all the bicycles?

Still there but being replaced by cars.

Whether or not this is a good thing is debatable.

 

Btw, the Beijing - Shanghai corridor is going to get high-speed rail transit.

 

JR-type Shinkansen (bullet train) will probably be the type built.

[roidrage]

I figure cans of chunky soup has more pricing power then the auto industry...

HT our Greek chorus,

 

Thanks for all of your contributions.

 

Let's see if Ford can make the announced price increase on the F150 stick.

 

Meanwhile, I'll take the ferry over to Camden to see how things on the Campbell's Chunky line are running!!

[Guest libertas]

That said, it seems like the major bleeding here in sillycon valley has stopped for now. My apartment complex (a big one) was losing tenants and was running a 25% vacancy rate. ......<snip>..... Home prices still going up though, so the point of recognition is still a long ways off.

I'm not so sure. I just looked through the ads and the weekend open house list in the Palo Alto Weekly. (I was dining alone tonight and there was nothing else to read - I was desperate). Anyway, prices are definitely down. I was quite surprised. The majority of listed open houses in Palo Alto were priced at less than $1M. (If you don't live here, that may not seem like a big thing. Just trust me, it is.) Those over $1M were large lots or brand new. Looks to me like it's over.

 

I ran into an old friend whom I had not seen in several years on the street in Los Altos today. He ran through a whole list of acquantances who were either out of work or about to be so. He was very concerned about the future of the valley - and he's not a natural bear like me.

 

Anecdotal? You bet, but enough to send my antennae bristling.

[Hiding Bear]

I just got a a sample issue of Turov on timing from Dan Turov. I have asked his permission to post it for you all and willdo so if I hear back from him. In the meantime I responded to him thusly.

 

Thanks Dan-

 

Long term I'm wildly bearish. Seems to me we are merely ten years behind the

Japanese, and following their model to the T, mistake by mistake by mistake.

Unless an economy can earn real returns, which the Fed has made impossible

by taking rates to zero, half the players all are forced to resort to wild

speculation whcih always has disastrous results. The other half are forced

to consume principal. If it goes on long enough most of these entities will

disappear, or if they are individuals, be left destitute.

 

In the short run I believe we are in the rigor mortis terminal blowoff phase

of yet another Greasepan spnsored bubble. He will be remembered in history

along with John Law as the greatest financial swindlers of all time. Our

children and grandchildrene are being robbed of their futures. It's very

sad.

 

So we have no choice but to joke about it, I guess.

 

Doc

Great snippet. Thanks Doc.

 

If I have any disagreement with the conclusions, it is that he is not bearish enough.

 

We are not only repeating the mistakes of Japan, but making them even faster than Japan did.

 

I deeply suspect, but can not prove, that earnings from matrix related companies are overstated. The $55 billion loss realized by Enron creditors may give some hint of what happens when the matrix pyramid stops spinning out new deals.

 

Sorry if this belongs in the Bear Zone.

 

mdporter - good anecdote. US companies doing what is in their best interest paradoxically has the opposite effect on the economy by increasing unemployment.

 

 

Ed. Note- Just to clear up any confusion I may have caused, the above was my email to Turov. I am waiting to hear from him on permission to post his market letter. - Doc

[CMGI_FAN]

Bigwave- thanks for the heartfelt post. I can relate to it as I had a 30 man machine shop prior to selling 3 1/2 years ago. It turned out to be the best business decision I ever made- my major customers were the aircraft industry. The new owner is struggling now- the best customer packed up and moved the bulk of its operations to Ireland.

 

f-san

 

Thanks for the mini-movie and the link. It looks like China's best can put some of our major cities to shame.

[Guest AssMaster]

I'm not so sure. I just looked through the ads and the weekend open house list in the Palo Alto Weekly. (I was dining alone tonight and there was nothing else to read - I was desperate). Anyway, prices are definitely down. I was quite surprised. The majority of listed open houses in Palo Alto were priced at less than $1M. (If you don't live here, that may not seem like a big thing. Just trust me, it is.) Those over $1M were large lots or brand new. Looks to me like it's over.

 

I ran into an old friend whom I had not seen in several years on the street in Los Altos today. He ran through a whole list of acquantances who were either out of work or about to be so. He was very concerned about the future of the valley - and he's not a natural bear like me.

 

Anecdotal? You bet, but enough to send my antennae bristling.

Nothing like losing your job to turn you bearish - at least for normal people. I was bearish until I lost my job last July. Something wrong with me, I guess.

[Guest AssMaster]

I just got a a sample issue of Turov on timing from Dan Turov. I have asked his permission to post it for you all and willdo so if I hear back from him. In the meantime I responded to him thusly.

 

Thanks Dan-

 

Long term I'm wildly bearish. Seems to me we are merely ten years behind the

Japanese, and following their model to the T, mistake by mistake by mistake.

Unless an economy can earn real returns, which the Fed has made impossible

by taking rates to zero, half the players all are forced to resort to wild

speculation whcih always has disastrous results. The other half are forced

to consume principal. If it goes on long enough most of these entities will

disappear, or if they are individuals, be left destitute.

 

In the short run I believe we are in the rigor mortis terminal blowoff phase

of yet another Greasepan spnsored bubble. He will be remembered in history

along with John Law as the greatest financial swindlers of all time. Our

children and grandchildrene are being robbed of their futures. It's very

sad.

 

So we have no choice but to joke about it, I guess.

 

Doc

Great snippet. Thanks Doc.

 

If I have any disagreement with the conclusions, it is that he is not bearish enough.

 

We are not only repeating the mistakes of Japan, but making them even faster than Japan did.

 

I deeply suspect, but can not prove, that earnings from matrix related companies are overstated. The $55 billion loss realized by Enron creditors may give some hint of what happens when the matrix pyramid stops spinning out new deals.

 

Sorry if this belongs in the Bear Zone.

 

mdporter - good anecdote. US companies doing what is in their best interest paradoxically has the opposite effect on the economy by increasing unemployment.

This is neither the bull nor the bear zone. It's the Twilight Zone. :grin:

[brian4]

On Black Monday-My buddy Bert who I chroniceled two days ago and I went to see our broker Tom Foster the VP of Dean Witter Canada then , the receptionist was crying Tom was slumped in his seat and said guys its over! I lost 150K that day the last losing year I had! Anyone who see's this as the birth of another BULL please line up over there to have your lithium levels adjusted! Trade Safe!

[Darkdoc]

Great concerts? Most memorable anyway?

 

The Beatles, Red Rocks Amphitheatre, Denver, Colorado, August 1964.

 

Lead-in act: The Righteous Brothers.

 

Did about 15 songs, favorites were Roll Over Beethoven and Hard Day's Night.

 

I had just turned 13, and the tickets were a birthday present.

 

Could barely hear the band for all the screaming girls, but the memory is indelible.

 

They never came there again.