Pms Daily Discussion Forum For Turdsday, Dec 19

[5thelement]

Thanks Vesselin for your warning. I heeded it and sold off anything I felt I paid too much for as I only jumped in last week and a $20 move in POG did basically nothing to alot of the majors. The major PM stocks did nothing but Gyrate since last Friday.

 

Some of my Canadian Juniors went parabolic and I took the opportunity to sell into strength as many of them have pathetic volumes when POG takes a hit and it's very difficult to get orders filled. Many of the Canadian juniors are moving up on LOWER volume, terrible sign so I took whatever profits I could get and only left maybe 30% on the table.

 

If the POG had gone to $350 during US hours, we would've seen a rocket ship but how many of us would have sold into it??? Probably not a lot of us as we would have been oh so bullish.

 

Along with Jim Sinclairs warning, I took a lot of cash back to sit on the sidelines and watch.

 

It's funny, no one was posting in the Gold Forum around Thanksgiving or 1st week of December and now all the sudden there's lotsa activity in just the last week. It should be kinda the opposite, when PM stocks become relatively cheap, we all should be salivating at the deals we got, like shopping at TJ Maxx and getting an awesome deal.

 

I hope everyone sticks around if POG corrects a bit before going to $400.

 

Personally, I wouldn't mind POG testing $330 again just to be sure this breakout in POG is for real and we could all pick up stocks at Thanksgiving prices again probably as alot of speculators will emote and freak out and sell into weakness.

 

We're all nuts to be playing the PM stock game anyways. I'd love to rewind to summer 2001 and spend it all on HMY @$5, DROOY @$1 GLG@$3 :wink2:

[B.A.A.]

Wow, what a day it was, and I got caught away from the 'puter. Drat.

 

So POG leaps into action and the stocks respond by going backwards. With POG today (my time) back at $345 and many of the Gold stocks all off the pace (hardly surpising with people like Sinclair calling for 30% sell down), I see this as another golden buying opportunity. We have a very large $ ratio gap opening up here between POG and gold stocks, and this gap WILL be filled.

 

Now, I'm sure I had a keg of dry powder around here somewhere. Gee, these gold stocks look CHEAP to me. I'm buying this sell off. That's my fundamentally technical response.

 

Good luck to all,

BAA

[DogBoy]

"Gold has much better prospects than oil for making a lasting and profitable run"

 

Yeah, Oil is not an investment that you want to cuddle up to.

 

It's a "quickie" one nighter, in and out, sayanara, see ya later type of investment.

 

The long term prospects for Oil are quite dim indeed.

 

You've got shale oil getting cheaper, hydrogen fueal cells by 2010, and the ultimate source of energy Fusion reactors goming around 2015 - 2020 (based on current research research being done at Los Alamos).

[Guest]

Charmin, $HUI to 175 - maybe, but after another 6-8 months of sideways-down churning.

 

Hypertiger, I agree that these seem reasonable arguments - but, then, so did at the time the arguments of those who said that tech is the future, we can't without it and it will keep going up because we're in a new economy now. Me, I just watch the charts. Gold won't go to zero - and it won't go to the moon, either.

 

Charmin, this is one of the rare occasions when I agree with Mr. Sinclair.

 

5th, please do not trade based on my analysis, because I can be wrong just like anyone else and it makes me feel bad if somebody else loses money because of my mistakes. I am just stating what I see here; my opinion. By all means, take my arguments into account - but do you own analysis and trade according to that only. For instance, despite my bearish comments, I did not sell most of my gold stocks. (Sold only GFI, because my exposure to South African stocks was getting too high.) I am sticking to my plan to hold them while they are above their 50-dmas. Sure, I might lose some paper profits this way, but it's a tactick that suits my style better.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[5thelement]

Vesselin:

 

First, I'd like to thank you for graciously sharing your knowledge with all of us.

And I didn't make a trade based only on your analysis. Jim Sinclair gave a big warning and as well I suscribe to Steven Saville which gives 2 updates per week and

I read Doc's Anals everynight and morning. Steven Saville had said definitely take profits on the North American stocks that were getting overvalued so quickly. But he's partial to SA stocks due to leverage to POG and the amount of reserves and he's not put off by the policitcal problems in SA YET!

 

PLUS my own hunches said we were in danger zone. I expected PM Stocks to perform much much better given we busted out of $330 for sure, especially the majors should not have had so much fear and hesitation written into the charts.

 

If I had started buying Dec 1, I would've left 2/3 on the table like Jim Sinclair suggested. But I didn't trust the initial move cause all the stocks were parabolic in 2-3 days of gold going from $316-323, and like yourself, I would prefer a slow and steady upwards movement of stocks and gold prices than the crazy gyrations we get here.

 

But that's how emotional and panicky PM stock investors are. I myself bought on the open at market prices when gold went crazy to $330 and I know I paid too much for a lot of my stocks. We're already seeing a correction today and I can buy back whatever positions I want at much cheaper prices now 5-10% less.

 

Christmas is coming and between Santa and New Year's I imagine there'll be a good buying opp, especially if POG gets a temporary spanking.

 

All of us who read and hang out in the gold forum are adults and at least big kids so we all are responsible for our own judgements. Thanks for being humble and admitting that your own analysis may be wrong. I like reading your posts to understand how you use different indicators as real life charts are way better than anything out of my TA books and it sticks inside my brain/memory much more indelibly also.

 

Mucho Gracias Vesselin,

 

5th