BartTheBear Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 Great points Mark. I'm just trying to learn all I can. And grow some intestinal fortitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 What the hell did we do wrong to miss this kind of a move? ?On so many stocks? ?The best buying opportunity of the year? http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$...#124;C|D20 In every chart, the 20-period MA crossed over the 50-period MA in early April. The trend is your friend. (Please remind me of that next time I'm fighting it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 I kind of feel like the name of the stoolie at the bottom of the page right now "onwardthruthefog." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rott Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 Roach's latest http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/diges...ri.html#anchor0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BusKow Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 Anals Closing Intraday, and Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit are posted. Please use links at left. I see "Uncle Buck and ...". Anybody see the 4pm comments? tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 MH. Nice chart of ROC vs Naz.It also seems to show that once the price crosses,the max gain is 40% before a top is reached. Aaarrrrg-only another possible 20% to go from here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 Mark: You already know many of the reasons why "we" missed it. We are bears. Every time someone mentioned one of the warnings signs: .the four year cycle low .Lowry's change in buying pressure/selling pressure .the 5 point reversal .Sornette's prediction of a rise .The Bradley .positive seasonality Nov/May .The Nikkei/Gold bounce after 2 years of bear .etc. etc. ...they were shouted down by bearish chearleaders. And being fundamentally bearish, it was easy enough to let the cheering drown out the tiny voices of potential bullish scenarios in our bearish brains. Next time, hang out in Golden Stool a bit before Oct. to get yourself in a proper frame of mind. Charts are not always seen as being on the cusp of 3 of 3 down there...although we do have a few who were cought wrong-footed on the last bottom. But generally, it is an open-minded kinda place - long or short. Buy the dips Nov-May, Sell the rallies June-Oct. Simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 "how to really play with fire"...by Ko "bay-bay" Bryant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 Oops,price went up 80% in 99-00 after crossing the average ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 Well I can tell you that 3 trading days off the March bottom cost 16% in the Ryder QQQ short fund. It was horrifying watching the market set up to rocket on the third day mid morning when I couldnt cover to close.Had pretty much entire port loaded...The volume was huge on the QQQ and the chart shows that volume wize you should buy when its over 100 million shares in the black on volume....the 3 of 3 had the whole board at record highs. Notice record low board volume at the top if that is in fact the case....do you guys have a chart for board volumes? Probably pretty interesting... I owned SINA, SOHU, CHINA and ASIA coming off their lows ET,CPN,DYN,CNP,WMB but sold around 5 area pretty much on all of them except ET...around 6 on utilities. Bought back at ridiculous prices later to trade only..I could have shut down my monitor and walked away for 4 months and had 5xs the return I ended up with in reality.......among my many mistakes, the tops are patience, overtrading costing a ton in commisions and taxes. The worst mistake I make is watching the monitor all day. When we do finally get a CONFIRMED rollover I plan to short and walk away for the summer. I will of course wait for earnings to end for going full blown short again. During this rally on 3 different occasions my port lost 4 weeks worth of gains in 1-2 trading days. Every time it has bounced back and regained half of the losses within 5 trading sessions. The volatility will be huge from here for sure and the top will go quickly if there is a second chance at it. I will be careful being short or long due to violent moves shaking everyone to death not giving a crap whether your long or short....maybe Ill just switch to my month to month 10% out of the money covered call strategy. Ill win unless the market goes up 10% a month for infinity.....some good Asian stocks would be perfect after up 30% next week.....the Asians proved today that you should get prepared for a huge emotional rollercoaster if your long or short.....good luck. I guess technically we should go down next week since we were down this week and uo on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 Check out that chart on SNDK. What a shame. Charts don't get any better than that one. Looks like its about done for now. But here's the question: What the hell did we do wrong to miss this kind of a move? On so many stocks? The best buying opportunity of the year? And the year before that was the October lows? And the year before that the 911 lows? Spectacular moves each year. And we stand around here like jerks with our thumbs stuck up our Arses. How do we make sure we don't miss the next one? How do we make sure we don't constantly short into a Parabolic Blowoff like we may be experiencing now? That is the question to consider pondering. ............................. McClellan barely moved. More upside next week. http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$...#124;C|D20 A perfect chart! NIHD PE= 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 Thurs. S&P action down 12 resulted in a loss of 37 Fri. S&P action up 11 resulted in a gain 0f 137 Net Gain of 100 - seems to intentional Wouldn't a retest of 1015 now send us over the much needed 9352 figure to trigger more buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 Mark: You already know many of the reasons why "we" missed it. We are bears. Every time someone mentioned one of the warnings signs: .the four year cycle low .Lowry's change in buying pressure/selling pressure .the 5 point reversal .Sornette's prediction of a rise .The Bradley .positive seasonality Nov/May .The Nikkei/Gold bounce after 2 years of bear .etc. etc. ...they were shouted down by bearish chearleaders. And being fundamentally bearish, it was easy enough to let the cheering drown out the tiny voices of potential bullish scenarios in our bearish brains. Next time, hang out in Golden Stool a bit before Oct. to get yourself in a proper frame of mind. Charts are not always seen as being on the cusp of 3 of 3 down there...although we do have a few who were cought wrong-footed on the last bottom. But generally, it is an open-minded kinda place - long or short. Buy the dips Nov-May, Sell the rallies June-Oct. Simple. Fascinating considering Thor moderates Stools Gold and considering he said when introducing the "true blue" bear site. "If it's not a bearish post, you can go to M2M or go to hell. . . " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 Thurs. S&P action down 12 resulted in a loss of 37Fri. S&P action up 11 resulted in a gain 0f 137 Net Gain of 100 - seems to intentional Wouldn't a retest of 1015 now send us over the much needed 9352 figure to trigger more buying? Agreed and I'm anticipating the possibility, although tech may still underperform. BS earnings reports from 3-M and Mother MRK could result in a blue-chip orgy monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 18, 2003 Report Share Posted July 18, 2003 What the hell did we do wrong to miss this kind of a move? ?On so many stocks? ?The best buying opportunity of the year? http://stockcharts.com/candleglance?$...#124;C|D20 In every chart, the 20-period MA crossed over the 50-period MA in early April. The trend is your friend. (Please remind me of that next time I'm fighting it.) Thats what everyone was saying in March. Stay short the trend is your friend. Is it true this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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