Guest Posted September 19, 2004 Report Share Posted September 19, 2004 Mr Hanky, Is there a good ewave plug in for Metastock? Also, is the HI5 indicator something you are willing to share information about? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted September 22, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 22, 2004 estool, I can't really say about EW plug-ins for Metastock, I never used it for doing EW since I have others that have specific EW counting algorithms built-in. AGET is probably the most widely used BUT it definitely has its quirks! I have the HI-5 indicator available to import via MTA file for Metastock but the formula is protected, sorry, I can't give away that information. Too many years of work on it and it is an integral part of my FCS system. But if somebody would like to use it with MS8 or higher I have the import file I can e-mail to them. OK, finally getting some divergent behavior on the HI-5 applied to the NDX, a short signal must be close at hand for the CT system. Also notice how the HI-5 anticipates break out from sideways and especially triangular consolidations. Here it sharply rose during the triangle and sure enough we broke to the upside! THE HI-5 is designed specifically for use on DAILY charts ONLY. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted September 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2004 OIH just keeps looking better! But this of course does not portend well for the economy, particularly since this expansion is very, very long in the tooth. My best guess is we enter a stagflationary recession, further attempts will be made to fiscally and monetarily pump the economy as its fundamentals which have never recovered begin to deteriorate again. Inflation fueled by falling dollar and rising energy costs, not economic expansion adds up to stagflation. Depending on its severity and a number of other factors it could always turn into something much worse as time progresses, but for now it looks like that is where we are headed over the next few years. From a technical and cyclical standpoint I don't see this until next year (back to a rate cutting Fed, increasing deficits due to income tax shortfalls, and the dollar taking another spill and gold rallying) So Bush WILL be elected to another term. The Hankometer is still in bear mode, waiting for the ST signal to turn from long to short for a CT short trade, hoping for a good one to make up for how crappy this year has been! Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted September 24, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2004 OIH weekly...longer term we have completed another very bullish cup and handle, a pull-back here MUST be bought!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted September 25, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2004 CMR Consumer Index Relative Strength Analysis: yellow area is range of relatively normal, healthy expansion of the late 90's. During the tech explosion it's RS suffered as did many other sectors as techs, biotechs, financials exploded. Suddenly the techs collapsed and we had "new leadership" in Consumers and Cyclicals as interest rates plunged and tax cutting abounded. We are now still above the RS "mean" and at the top of the CMR's 5-year range. Which way do think this is more likely to go????I favor reversion to the mean AT LEAST. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted September 25, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2004 CYC Cyclical Index: I see this as very odd behavior to say the least. Again after the 1998 cyclical low CYC rallies but still RS looks sickly due to the tech explosion. Tech implosion post 2000 and the CYC suddenly looks great and hold up quite well. So where are hapless sheeple going to start reallocating their 401K's and rediversify what's left of their devastated tech laden portfolios? OK so they do this as the techs bottom and the next 4 yr cyclical low comes in. OK, we get an expansion and stock market rallies off the 4 year low and the massive move out of techs propels this to new highs on this up-cycle despite no real corresponding improvement in fundamentals and earnings in these things. Some have benefitted from refinanced debt and increased commodity prices but really some of the P/E 's on these old stalwarts are astounding and many at all-time highs. Expanding triangles big and small...sick, very sick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted September 25, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2004 OIH Relative Strength rockets to new highs...pull-backs to be bought with both hands!!!! These idiots saying OIL is going back below $40 blow my mind!!!! Mr. Hanky is a very cautious trader and doesn't often make bold statements but this one I will "OIL NEVER to close below $40/barrel on monthly to be seen again." PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted September 25, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2004 Just about all corrections in this crude bull market have been between $5-10. Only one was a gigantic and highly unusual $15 plunge in early 2003 that helped fuel the economic recovery and stock market rally of March 2003-March 2004, very mysterious and even look at longer term charts and try to find such sudden declines of this magnitude! So anyway this is another but only one of many reasons for my no sub-$40 crude. Reams of support now lie just under $40, any retesting won't stay for long. There is some support at $35 but I really don't give this much of a chance of ever being seen again and would definitely be rock bottom support. This rally back to the prior $50 high so far looks strong technically and I don't see divergences that usually point to a "double top" such as happened in gold. Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted September 25, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2004 HGX DOUBLE TOP ALERT!!!! Only thing we need is a little spiker with a reversal bar! Could it be skyrocketing costs of energy to fuel their hummers and heat and cool their new McMansions and drive up the costs of many other consumables alone may be enough to stagnate the housing market and put a damper on consumer expenditures, even if rates were to stay fairly level??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted September 25, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 25, 2004 WHAT IS TO COME It is my belief that we are now embarked on a journey that will take us into a hyperinflationary depression. There may be brief deflationary spurts that punctuate this journey along the way, but an examination of history leads me to conclude hyperinflation is much more likely than deflation. Unlike the U.S. economy during the 1930s or Japan in the 1990s, the U.S. economy is no longer self sufficient in capital, manufacturing, and energy. And unlike the 1930s, our currency is no longer backed by gold. The U.S. is now the world?s largest debtor nation versus the world?s largest creditor nation as we were in the 30?s. We are no longer self sufficient in energy as we were during the last depression. We import 60 percent of our energy needs, a percentage that is growing each decade. We must also compete with other nations for the world?s last remaining barrels of oil as we enter into the twilight of the oil age. During the 30?s the U.S. created the Texas Railroad Commission to regulate oil and prop up prices because of the abundance of oil in this country. In contrast to the 1930s, U.S. oil and natural gas production decline each year. This forces the U.S. to import more of its energy needs, energy we pay for with dollars. When the world no longer accepts those dollars as payment, the full impact of inflation will hit home. I would like to end with a quote from Jens O. Parsson?s book ?Dying of Money.? It perhaps explains best where we are today and where we are headed. ?Everyone loves an early inflation. The effects at the beginning of inflation are all good. There is steepened money expansion, rising government spending, increased government budget deficits, booming stock markets, and spectacular general prosperity, all in the midst of temporarily stable prices. Everyone benefits, and no one pays. That is the early part of the cycle. In the later inflation, on the other hand, the effects are all bad. The government may steadily increase the money inflation in order to stave off the latter effects, but the latter effects patiently wait. In the terminal inflation, there is faltering prosperity, tightness of money, falling stock markets, rising taxes, still larger government deficits, and still roaring money expansion, now accompanied by soaring prices and ineffectiveness of al traditional remedies. Everyone pays and no one benefits. That is the full cycle of every inflation.? http://www.financialsense.com/series4/part1.html Another brilliant article by Jim Puplava. Looks like he is in the stagflation--->hyperinflation camp! Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stanley Posted September 26, 2004 Report Share Posted September 26, 2004 WHAT IS TO COME It is my belief that we are now embarked on a journey that will take us into a hyperinflationary depression. .......When the world no longer accepts those dollars as payment, the full impact of inflation will hit home. I would like to end with a quote from Jens O. Parsson?s book ?Dying of Money.? It perhaps explains best where we are today and where we are headed. ....at the beginning of inflation are all good ....In the later inflation,.. the effects are all bad ....In the terminal inflation,........... Another brilliant article by Jim Puplava. Looks like he is in the stagflation--->hyperinflation camp! Hank Hank, encounter literacy difficulty. I can not comprehend what is the context meaning for "hyperinflationary depression". Too abstract. Does that says we will see a hpyer inflation, then, we will see depression? or hyperinflation coexists with depression? looks like it is not equivalent to "stagflation" ... anyway, when it happens, how it looks like? tanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted September 27, 2004 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2004 Though the bond market has benefited from heavy short-covering among speculators and buying on speculation about economic weakness, both inflation risks and U.S. dollar risks currently seem underestimated. Unless we begin to see defaults or other panics that raise the desirability of holding cash (which would drive a corresponding decline in monetary velocity), it is unlikely that the rate of inflation will slow substantially. For that reason, my impression is that soon enough, the bond market will be dealing with sources of pressure (velocity- and energy-induced inflation and dollar weakness) unrelated to economic growth. Inflation protected securities, though not as exciting on rallies, appear to be better situated than nominal bonds here. http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc040927.htm The BRAIN's sentiments on the bond market; he too points out the energy cost and dollar weakness aspects but also adds the monetary velocity factor as another potential inflationary pressure. Other articles of his explain what money velocity is and what influences it. As far as what this hyperdeflationary depression will "look" like, I think if you read the whole article he does a pretty good job of explaining it, not much I can add. I am convinced that manipulation is going on in many markets (PPT) and that government economic figures are a joke, especially CPI numbers. It has become blantantly obvious of late. The FNM news may be the first crack in the dam that reveals the first evidence of government manipulation and cover-ups regarding financial mismanagement and fraud. GSE's to me are no less responsible to the public than agencies in my view. This will have a much more negative impact than the Enron debacle to be sure. Although there has been some short-term market strength, it is very tenuous and a few times the CT has almost fired a short signal. All LT indicators continue to remain on sell with little change. Stocks pretty much across the board in all aspects of the energy sector have broken out, look about to break out of huge bullish patterns, or have been rallying all year. Thinking of picking a few but like the instant diversification of the OIH. Maybe will add a natural gas specific mutual fund, like GASFX, APC Anadarko)chart looks great. Hank Hank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted October 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2004 CT will give a short signal Monday unless we get strong follow through of Friday's rally. I will post it intraday and take the trade of course, stay tuned. Everything is falling into place and setting up for a really nice shorting op now! Wide multiple divergence present on HI-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHankydoesWallStreet Posted October 2, 2004 Author Report Share Posted October 2, 2004 Already a bearish signal in place here yet we rallied Friday. I have found these are always the best shorting situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain's Log Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 Mr. H - tanks for your insights. A good read whilst I drink my morning cup of tea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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