wndysrf Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Every one know of the "new chick" that rolls into town. Just moved from Vegas. She's a real stunner. All the guys want to take her out. But some dude who knows her checkered past issues a warning: "Don't touch her. She's a real psycho." That won't stop anybody. They will press their bets in order to get a closeup view of that magnificent body. Or maybe even better. They will proceed without caution, until the sex is over and she emerges from the kitchen with that 10" butcher knive, wearing one of those frayed, disheveled sweatshirts hanging off of her shoulder. Then they will run for the hills. Today's Speculative Arena is no different. The big story today was the collapse in the bond market, which totally shook off the weak consumer confidence data this morning. But that doesn't matter. Speculators will continue to Riverboat whatever is moving north on the charts. AMAT, NTES, OPWV, whatever....... As long as its moving up, and you can make 5% to 20% in a day, that's where the money is going. Scalps to the very end. No one will leave the party until the last bit of alcohol is consumed. Every last drop squeezed. So while there is a lot of noise regarding the bond market troubles, no one is paying attention. The Titanic is unsinkable. AMAT is still in an uptrend. The light is still green. Hasn't turned yellow yet. Plenty of time to get out, run for the door, and change your phone number before boiled rabbits appear in your kitchen. What other things can we watch out for? Short term interest rates. If they suddenly explode, then that kills the SpreadTrading Bonanza. Yield curve is the steepest in 10 years. Won't stay that way for long....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 S&P closed right in the center of the 962-to-1015 trading range. The Sphinx of Brute Simple TA hasn't spoken yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasyAl Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Here are some quotes from a DJ newswire on Agency debts. NEW YORK -- Agency debt securities had yet another tumultuous session of selling Tuesday as a major investor base, Asia, soured on the sector. Securities backed by Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) widened three to 6.5 basis points across the yield curve in Tuesday's session. Add that to Monday's four-to-five basis point cheapening - and you have the worst two sessions in recent history, excluding the week of Freddie Mac's management shakeup in early June. Late Tuesday, Fannie Mae's 3.25% five-year benchmark notes were quoted at 46.5 basis points over the five-year Treasury note, six basis points wider than where they were trading late Monday. Freddie Mac's 4.5% 10-year reference notes were quoted at 64.0 basis points over the 10-year Treasury note, six basis points wider on the day. Back in June, the selling was mostly a kneejerk reaction as investors were unnerved by the news of the departure of three top executives at Freddie Mac amid several inquiries into the housing-finance company's accounting procedures. But this time around, the unloading of agency debt could be more dangerous for the sector since it may actually involve a change in overseas sentiment. Very heavy selling from Asian central banks was noted in the overnight session, after news reports, citing anonymous sources, said that the European Central Bank is selling all of its Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac holdings and advising the national central banks in the euro zone to do the same. That selling came on top of a smaller-than-usual participation by Asian investors in Fannie Mae's reference note auction last week. "The Asian investors heard what the European central banks may be doing and asked themselves `what do they know that we don't know', and so they sold," said Andy Brenner, head of global fixed income at Investec Ernst and Company. And while European investors aren't seen as big sponsors of agency debt, Asian selling is a different matter, as Asian investors own a significant amount of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt. Last year, Asian investors held 21.7% or $13.617 billion of Fannie Mae's debt, while European investors held 10% at $6.275 billion. International participation for 2002 was at 31.7%. Asian interest in Freddie Mac's five- and 10-year reference notes has been quite strong this year, standing at 22% as of June 30 compared with 12% in 2002. European interest came in unchanged at 12%. more here(req. WSJ online subscription) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted July 29, 2003 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Confirmed upside break on OPWV on 3x normal volume. Off to the races on that one. Could be the next SNDK. NTES closed on nearly 9 million shares traded, more than the 7 million available float of shares. One group of bagholders offloading to another group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 By maintaining these levels on a closing basis, the Holy Trinity of indicies maintain a short term bullish posture (IMO). S&P = 981 (50 Day SMA) Nazz = 1706 (20 Day EMA) DOW = 9148 (20 Day EMA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strikerm3 Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Confirmed upside break on OPWV on 3x normal volume. Off to the races on that one. Could be the next SNDK. NTES closed on nearly 9 million shares traded, more than the 7 million available float of shares. One group of bagholders offloading to another group. It was.....use to be PHCM....240 per share high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottcardiff Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 So, the average home buyer in Southern California buys a average home for $400,000 last month. Puts 10% down at 5%, 30 year fixed. Payments of $1,935 Principal & interest. Taxes of $4,800year This month his neighbor sells his house. Buyer wants same payments of $1,935 month. With 30 year rates at 6%, buyer pays $357,000 Taxes of $4,284/year Average home buyer is out ALL equity IN ONE MONTH They are UNDERWATER before all their mail is forwarded. What if the buyer purchased an adjustable rate mortgage? Let's say a 3% loan. Payments of $1,520 year. Now rates have gone up. If that rate backs up 1 point to 4%, payments shoot up to $1,718/month. I guess the buyer better lock in a fixed rate mortgage. Payments of $2,158. Oh well, gotta refinance before I get killed on my adjustable. WHAT DO YOU MEAN MY HOUSE IS WORTH LESS THAN MY MORTGAGE This is ASSHOLE AL'S WORST F*CKING NIGHTMARE... In Real Time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Glad I bought 5 years ago, below my means and have a fixed rate note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Just sitting and waiting for the thin ice to break. With each passing minute its getting warmer and the bulls are getting heavier. Keep skating bulls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 WHAT DO YOU MEAN MY HOUSE IS WORTH LESS THAN MY MORTGAGE This is ASSHOLE AL'S WORST F*CKING NIGHTMARE... In Real Time. Right on. A recent NY Times story indicated that many were backing out, or even been forced out by their lenders, before the deal is closed. I think the last two months of market investments by Joe6pk have been funded by refinancing. Not only will this stop now, but money may even be withdrawn when further refinancings become impossible - as past loans get paid off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMotleyStool Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 It's one thing when the bears here are trading the long side. It's another thing when they are so confident of the bullish case that they consider the bearish case untenable. Everything is in place for a crash by EOY, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDeepBlueSea Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Moody's is starting to to sound statist <_< ----- Moody's: Yields above what justified by fundamentals by Julie Rannazzisi at MarketProp NEW YORK (CBS.MW)-- The 10-year Treasury's yield appears to be well above what might be fundamentally warranted, according to economists at Moody's Investors Service. "The 10-year note may now be rising to levels that trim the prices of earnings-sensitive securities and materially curb business activity. The climb by benchmark yields has become steep enough to add perceptibly to economic risks," Moody's claimed. "In view of how the economic recovery cannot yet be deemed self-sustaining, perhaps it's too soon for the 10-year Treasury yield to reside above the third-quarter's prospective 3.8 percent yearly increase by nominal gross domestic product." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 "In a civil lawsuit filed on April 17, Lehman Brothers Bank accused Beverly Hills Estates Funding (BHEF), a real estate investment company based in one of the state's swankiest cities, and other parties of a massive case of mortgage fraud. Allegations include doctoring credit reports, creating straw buyers and devising false appraisals." Massive Kali mortgage fraud There's even a sex angle: 'Court documents have revealed that Fitzgerald had married another woman in 1999 and had a child with her. "He was leading a double life," says Waddoups. "He spent the week with one wife and the weekend with the other." According to Waddoups, both wives had discovered the existence of each other in the ensuing years, but the Tibbitses knew nothing of their son-in-law's bigamous life.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted July 29, 2003 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 Sorry, but all dips, crashes, maelstroms, and implosions must be bought with a vengance. Less than 60 days ago, LOOK blows up and gets smoked for a 40% loss. Now it has recovered all of its losses and then some. After hours, it is hysterically gapping up to new highs. Earns 1 cent vs. losing 1 cent last year. Over a "billion successful clicks" or eyeball views or whatever. Now up to $4.50, leaving a year's worth of shorts in the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasyAl Posted July 29, 2003 Report Share Posted July 29, 2003 NEW YORK (CBS.MW)-- The 10-year Treasury's yield appears to be well above what might be fundamentally warranted, according to economists at Moody's Investors Service. "The 10-year note may now be rising to levels that trim the prices of earnings-sensitive securities and materially curb business activity. The climb by benchmark yields has become steep enough to add perceptibly to economic risks," Moody's claimed. "In view of how the economic recovery cannot yet be deemed self-sustaining, perhaps it's too soon for the 10-year Treasury yield to reside above the third-quarter's prospective 3.8 percent yearly increase by nominal gross domestic product." The rally in bond yields probably has more to do with the unwinding of the carried trade than with economic recovery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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