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March Madness Failure?


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The "cascading" bankruptcies will destroy the debt backed economy...

 

There won't be enough left of the economy to fill an ashtray...

 

Blatant organized crime will be the "New economy"

 

It will be decades before you will be able to catch the next wave...

 

The time to declare bankruptcy and wriggle free in a prudent and civilized way is beginning to slip away...

 

When wild cornered animal stage begins it won't be civilized or prudent...

I guess us bankruptcy lawyers better enjoy the wave...............especially if there is not much time left..............

 

- The Birdman, Esq.

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Wndysrf,

 

Elaborating on your CA point................my good college buddy is a pyschologist under the State of CA medical programs............he just got pink slipped...................

 

All his "Gray Davis is the best" bs from the election period has interestingly turned into profane disdain...........worse yet his brand new Jag got repoed......................Oh well................

 

Hopefully Circuit City has some jobs....................and no plastic surgeons steal his wife.............

 

- The Birdman

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A conversation with Zoran about Today.

 

 

Chris,

 

The problem with the drop from Friday week is that it came down as a

zigzag.

That was not impulsive sending signals that something else was occurring.

That fact was sealed when the recovery exceeded 61.8%.

 

There are two alternatives as a result of that cahnge of events,

The first is with the additional swing that a TRINAGLE is forming as was

seen by some members of this list.

The second alternative that the drop down last week was WAVE-4 (T4) of

the TERMINAL and that this FIFTH WAVE of that TERMINAL finished today.

 

From a trading point of view it does not matter much if it is a

TRIANGLE or a TERMINAL.

The initial implications are the same

I prefer a TERMINAL "C" wave because it fit the larger patterns better

and it is a TYPICAL WAVE TWO conclusion.

It also sits well in the scenario painted two weeks ago whoich was

based on longer term ruling charts.

 

If the TERMINAL concluded today (and I expect it has), the S&P is at the

start of of wave three the most volatile of Elliott's moves and also

where panic phases are apt to occur.

As with all Elliott analysis, the prognosis should fit 5th Wave TERMINA,

as events unfold.

 

The expectation here is for a fast down move.

If it does not occur then the circumstances have changed or the

interpretation is wrong.

The move down from here SHOULD NOT RECOVER MORE THAN 61.8%.

If it does, then the TERMINAL is wrong and a more complex TRIANGLE is

forming.

 

There is of course the unlikely possibility that a reversal is forming.

That scenario will be eliminated with a definate break.

I have learned a long time ago one must be prepared for all

eventualities and always examine "what if" possibilities..

 

 

Zoran

 

 

 

 

chris whittington wrote:

 

>As someone struggling with EW analysis, and also following the S&P today, it

>looks to me as if:

>

>i) S&P tried to breach the 853 barrier, failed, bounced off and fell through

>the triangle support at 845, decisively breaching it. The next support is on

>the triangle (Zoran's B and D line) at about 826. I guess the S&P will

>breach this tomorrow.

>

>ii) Zoran might move his [C} to the [E] marked on the 2-3-2003 chart, or

>else he'll carry on calling this a triangle A,B,C,D,E, with E as the

>bifurcation point, and mark it as (2).

>

>iii) All implies we are now back in downwave 3 of 3 of 3 (the panic wave

>Zoran described last week), with a target of 785 (I think).

been obsessing over counts the past couple days. entire desk is covered with ewaves.

 

i like moving his C to today's high. only other scenario i could get my brain around was that the 13 feb lows of 806 were actually the end of wave (1), and that we just finished an ABC in wave (2) which, at 852, was a 38.2% retrace of the move down from his bifurcation around 923.

 

doesn't really matter though. does it. :grin:

 

went back through the entire bear market to find another triple failure at resistance that was followed by a breakthrough on a 4th try. didn't find any.

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For Mr Beal, Take a few days off and jump on a friggin Plane. :grin:

 

 

Talking Heads

Once in a Lifetime (1984)

Burning Down The House

 

Watch out

you might get what you're after

Cool babies

strange but not a stranger

I'm an ordinary guy

Burning down the house

 

Hold tight wait till the party's over

Hold tight We're in for nasty weather

There has got to be a way

Burning down the house

 

Here's your ticket pack your bag: time for jumpin' overboard

The transportation is here

Close enough but not too far, Maybe you know where you are

Fightin' fire with fire

 

All wet

hey you might need a raincoat

Shakedown

dreams walking in broad daylight

Three hun-dred six-ty five de-grees

Burning down the house

 

It was once upon a place sometimes I listen to myself

Gonna come in first place

People on their way to work baby what did you except

Gonna burst into flame

 

My house

S'out of the ordinary

That's might

Don't want to hurt nobody

Some things sure can sweep me off my feet

Burning down the house

 

No visible means of support and you have not seen nuthin' yet

Everything's stuck together

I don't know what you expect starring into the TV set

Fighting fire with fire

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Niederhoffer is a commodities trader who made a bundle for George Soros a long time ago.  Where he gets off giving stock advice, I don't know...

But he got his clients' asset completely wiped out in Oct 97 when Asia financial storm caused sharp decline in US market (On that day, the US stock market was halt twice, each for 30 min.) To add more insult to his clients, stock market rebounded sharply the next day, after his fund got completely wiped out.

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Alan Greenspan is not the problem at all... Fractional reserve banking is the problem...

 

When presented with a problem to be solved what can the FED do? Raise rates or lower them...

 

the gameplan since 1971 has been inflate debt or die...

 

Oh oh we're starting to suck eggs what should we do to stimulate the creation of more debt? I know raise rates... bang! your head just got blown off...

 

Lowering rates is the right answer...

 

It was possible that the FED could have raised rates more when they had the chance but to prevent collapse the rates would have had to been lowered further anyways.

 

I'm no fan of Greenspan, but to believe he caused this is nuts... Just an example of how the blame gets shifted from the cause to the result or symptom to perpetuate the inflate or die religion...

 

It's the outrage of "If they would have run things better "I" could have died rich, but now I'm going to die poor" "boy am I mad at having to accept my fate, and here I thought my offspring were going to get stuck holding the bag"

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