purdymouth Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 at the bottom I will convert it into real estate when the banks are selling $200,000 mortgages for $20,000 Roger that. You'll be able to tap dance down to your local distressed bank and thumb thru their hastily Xeroxed stack of firesale home descriptions and pics. I've heard many stories of PMs converted to real estate at major market troughs. That's what I call "smart money". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 I had a good time shagging ORCL last year! :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 pea-brained thoughts 1. greasepan cant price a ton of money and keep the dollar strong. -foreigners sell USD assets and USD - nowhere to hide - asset values decline. 2. federal govt cant balance books. states cant balance books. municipalities cant balance books. many coporations cant balance books. indiviual families cant balance books. - just one big money hole - nowhere to hide - asset values decline 3. baitball chases stocks baitball chases bonds baitball chasing real estate - in the end, nowhere to hide - no easy money, no juicy yields. just debt to service and loans to pay - asset values decline; debt service rises as income/revenues drop. 4. entities cant service debt entities repudiate debt -asset values decline as a result of above, which further evaporates equity and causes more foreclosures/defaults. asset values decline. in the end: i want to be essentially debt-free, have cash on hand, be short the market and long precious metals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dustbowl Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Pee Brain, You got it down, the perfect script. You need to add in the mix one more thing: massive increases in taxation during this period. Whether it is a tax hike or hidden fees, etc., it's coming in a big way. This added pressure alone will choke a medium-sized horse. If there will ever be another revolution in this country, it will be caused by the perfect financial storm brewing and massive tax increases will be the last straw. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 This isn't a market. It's a cartoon of a market. Cowboy, what does it mean that you were "sold" Crawford's mega bear weekend call? It was a bad tip, sure. It was a bad entry point too, the days prior that is. Trading for a monster move in some tiny time frame is gambling at its worst. Fear of jams is smart. Standing aside now is a supurb strategy. Not THE right one, but one that can be respected. There is no 1 right strategy. Trading a tip is not a strategy. Don't trade for the big move. (or make a vanity trade. Some way out of the money call or put, whatever is your flavor, and if ten sigma hits in your direction you have a story of how smart you were, for the grandkids. For all the percieved risk in the market we have been going nowhere, fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 TPINX. This is not A recomendation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 March effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Tomorrow the NY Metropolitan Transit Authority Board will vote to raise the subway/bus tokens 33% (from $1.50 to $2.00). Last month Mayor Bloombergfinancialnetwork.com raised property taxes 18%. The shortfall in the NYC pension fund is going to cost the city $3.5 billion by 2005. More than is spent on the entire police department during the same time. This is New York City, your mileage may vary. Nonetheless, even if one is personally debt free, one will still be paying off alot of debt with, of course, vastly reduced services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 If this doesn't smell like a set up for tomorrow's action... Just Before the Fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 That's right Mark... It ain't over till we get more dry up... I say 13-18 months tops until real estate really starts to crack... Then we'll see if the Carlton Sheets no money down coat of paint gift of gab swindle was a good idea or not... Until then we have to stare at the insane and illogical realities every waking moment with a slow drip of anti sickness drugs and a good supply of barf bags for back up... They lit the fuse on the implosion bomb in 71' and it's at the point now where smoke is rising out of the hole and the fuse can't be seen anymore... Just keep stacking gold and silver... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Tomorrow is going to be a.... From the album "Sign 'O' The Times" (Oh-we-oh-oooh) (groove!) (drop out them horns) It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night U got your world together Everything's lookin' alright Tonight there's no tomorrow This is gonna be the one (alright, Paris, we gonna see how) Tonight we're gonna lose our sorrow (soulful you are, are you ready?) Tonight we're gonna have some fun (come on, say it...) (Oh-we-oh-oooh) It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night (keep singin, y'all) (Oh-we-oh-oooh) It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night (verse, clap your hands) Little boy got the notion, get some love tonight Get yo rap in motion, 4 she out o' sight Little girl at the party, maybe she'd like 2 dance Ring around the rosie (Paris, are you ready?) Pocket full of chance (horns, do it) (Oh-we-oh-oooh) (sing it, y'all) It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night (Oh-we-oh-oooh) It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night (guitars and drums, groove) (dance, come on) They say that there's nothing's better Than sleeping on a rainy day We could spend the night together Come on baby what U say? It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night, oh It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night, oh It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night, oh It's gonna be a beautiful, beautiful night (say it) No time 4 politics, no we don't wanna fight Everybody get up, it's gonna be a beautiful night No time 4 sorrow, this is gonna be the one Tonight there's no tomorrow Tonight we're gonna have some fun (Are you ready Paris?) (Oh-we-oh-oooh) (say it, y'all) It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night (c'mon) (Oh-we-oh-oooh) It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night (two times) We are beautiful, it's gonna be a beautiful night We are beautiful, it's gonna be a beautiful night We are beautiful, it's gonna be a beautiful night We are beautiful, it's gonna be a beautiful night We are beautiful, it's gonna be a beautiful night We are beautiful, it's gonna be a beautiful night We are beautiful, it's gonna be a beautiful night We are beautiful, it's gonna be a beautiful night (Paris, say it once more time, uh!) (Oh-we-oh-oooh) (say it) It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night (night, y'all, yeah) (Oh-we-oh-oooh) It's gonna be a beautiful It's gonna be a beautiful night (just the drums, just the drum -- Bobby) (Oh-we-oh-oooh) {{repeated in the background}} Everybody get way down, Tonight we're gonna ball Tonight we're gonna get the bomb, y'all I'm talkin' 'bout the Detroit crawl Everybody in the west Everybody in the east [Every man I'll injure] With my chicken grease Get with it (one more) (are you ready Paris - Soul Clap) (ah yeah, ah yeah) (gimme the bass, gimme the bass, one time) Said the table 2 the chair "You can hardly be aware How I suffer from the heat And from chillblains on my feet! If we took a little walk We might have a little talk! Pray let us take the air!" Said the table to the chair (can't nobody) Said the chair to the table "Now you know we are not able! (fornicate with us) How foolishly you talk When you know we cannot walk!" (can't nobody) Said the table with a sigh "It can do no harm to try (fornicate with us) I've as many legs as you Why can't we walk on two?" (say, can't nobody) So they both went showly down (fornicate with us) And walked about the town With a cheerful bumpy sound (can't nobody) As they toddled round and round And everybody cried As they hastened to their side (fornicate with us) "See the table and the chair Have come 2 take the air!" (y'all - say it y'all) But in going down an alley To a castle in the valley They completely lost their way And wandered all the day Till, to see them safely back They paid a ducky-quack And a beetle and a mouse Who took them to their house. When they whispered to each other "O delightful little brother! (can't nobody fornicate with us) What a lovely walk we've taken! Let us dine on beans and bacon!" So the ducky and the little browny- (say it, y'all) mousey and the beetle dined, And danced upon the heads Till they toddled to their beds. (can't nobody fornicate with us) Good God [repeated in the background] Revolution, baby way down low beautiful night, y'all say it beautiful night, y'all say it say what a beautiful night, y'all say it beautiful night, y'all say it come on (oh-we-oh-ooh) say it (oh-we-oh-ooh) say it louder, y'all (oh-we-oh-ooh) say it louder, y'all (oh-we-oh-ooh) Miko, Miko, hit me in the back with funk beautiful night, y'all say it beautiful night, y'all say it everbody feelin' alright, y'all say it gonna be a beautiful night, y'all say it everybody, (oh-we-oh-ooh, oh-we-oh-ooh) say it (oh-we-oh-ooh, oh-we-oh-ooh) say it (oh-we-oh-ooh, oh-we-oh-ooh) (oh-we-oh-ooh, oh-we-oh-ooh) get the horns in here keep singin' y'all everybody clap your hands everybody clap your hands everbody, groove, come on Confusion! Yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K Wave Rider Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 On a lighter note, now that we appear to be at war. See LOB Board. Beer makes you feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 also, we don't need a 10 sigma event to push this thing over its that fragile. Just time. A simple push with a feather or a gentle nudge should just about do it. Life is a journey not a destination, enjoy the ride. Investing is the same thing. Besides, if you make that big kill then what?! Market (NYSE) is down 7% since Jan 1. If you're shorting and not up 7% you only have yourself to blame, don't blame the market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pee Brain Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 Tomorrow the NY Metropolitan Transit Authority Board will vote to raise the subway/bus tokens 33% (from $1.50 to $2.00). Last month Mayor Bloombergfinancialnetwork.com raised property taxes 18%. The shortfall in the NYC pension fund is going to cost the city $3.5 billion by 2005. More than is spent on the entire police department during the same time. This is New York City, your milage may vary. Nonetheless, even if one is personally debt free, one will still be paying off alot of debt with, of course, vastly reduced services. mousey, you're right about the debt-service. it will come out of all of our hides, but less so if im in nevada by then(its a personal choice - NO STATE TAX). and tax increases arent gonna help job creation, consumer spending, etc, because more and more its gonna go to service the increasing debt. property assessments are likely to drop! LOL! can you imagine the what would happen if interest rates spiked upward? also, there's no talk of cutting spending and then you get things like grey davis giving the firemen, police officers and corrections workers 90% retirement after 30 years, with annual COLAs of course... now who is gonna go to the "salt mines" for 100% of their pay, when they can sit at home and collect 90%? what were they thinking? bottom line for me though is that im almost where i want to be now and its not a bad place to be whether the market tanks, goes sideways forever or finally dumps. it makes it easier to watch the clown show too, as govt figures how to give everyone, everything, everytime, with somebody else required to pay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted March 6, 2003 Report Share Posted March 6, 2003 another thing we need to get straight: when the bombs drop so does the market, and HARD! My strategy is to modestly capitalize for a steady drip-drip affair. If we get an Arch weekend - great! If we get a 10 sigma event - great! If we don't, great! Tails I win, heads I win. Shitty stocks sink over time. Give yourself time! Every jack-ass who has had a desire to buy has bought. The market doesn't go straight up, nor does it go stratight down. This market is finished, done, played, toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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